Replica analysis of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data

Overfitting, which happens when the number of parameters in a model is too large compared to the number of data points available for determining these parameters, is a serious and growing problem in survival analysis. While modern medicine presents us with data of unprecedented dimensionality, these data cannot yet be used effectively for clinical outcome prediction. Standard error measures in maximum likelihood regression, such as p-values and z-scores, are blind to overfitting, and even for Cox's proportional hazards model (the main tool of medical statisticians), one finds in literature only rules of thumb on the number of samples required to avoid overfitting. In this paper we present a mathematical theory of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data, which aims to increase our quantitative understanding of the problem and provide practical tools with which to correct regression outcomes for the impact of overfitting. It is based on the replica method, a statistical mechanical technique for the analysis of heterogeneous many-variable systems that has been used successfully for several decades in physics, biology, and computer science, but not yet in medical statistics. We develop the theory initially for arbitrary regression models for time-to-event data, and verify its predictions in detail for the popular Cox model.Comment: 37 pages, 9 figure

Women and Heart Disease: Neglected Directions for Future Research

Before age 65, women have less heart disease than men. For many years, estrogen was the most popular explanation for this female advantage, and observational studies through the 1980s showed a lower risk of heart attacks in postmenopausal women taking “replacement” estrogen. But the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI), the first placebo-controlled trials of hormone therapy with the size and statistical power necessary to study clinical cardiovascular outcomes, did not confirm the hormone-healthy heart hypothesis. Now, at least 5 years later, the most unexpected WHI result may be how resilient the estrogen hypothesis has been. Where, beyond estrogen therapy, should we go from here to explain the striking sex differences in heart disease rates? A broader spectrum of research about the female cardiovascular advantage and its translation is needed

Beliefs and Values About Music in Early Childhood Education and Care: Perspectives From Practitioners

This paper reports the findings of a study that aimed to identify the music beliefs and values of educators in early childhood education and care settings in Australia. The aims of the study were 2-fold: to adapt and pilot a survey of music beliefs and values which might be implemented subsequently nationally in childcare settings; and, secondly, to identify the music beliefs and values held by early childhood and care educators concerning music in children's learning. The research questions that guided this component of the study were: What is the profile of early childhood and care educators? What beliefs and values for music engagement are held by early childhood and care educators? What shapes early childhood and care educators' music beliefs and values? Findings indicated that educators' beliefs and values on all items are above the mid-point indicating overall positive attitudes toward music despite the majority having no formal qualifications in music or a history of instrumental performance and/or singing. Given the overall positive attitudes toward music we suggest there is enormous potential within this population for further professional learning and development targeted at music and its potential wider benefits in young children's learning and lives

Economic costs of minor depression: a population-based study

Objective: Although the clinical relevance of minor depression has been demonstrated in many studies, the economic costs are not well explored. In this study, we examine the economic costs of minor depression. Method: In a large-scale, population-based study in the Netherlands (n ¼ 5504) the costs of minor depression were compared with the costs of major depression and dysthymia. Excess costs, i.e. the costs of a disorder over and above the costs attributable to other illnesses, were estimated with help of regression analysis. The direct medical costs, the direct non-medical costs and the indirect non-medical costs were calculated. The year 2003 was used as the reference year. Results: The annual per capita excess costs of minor depression were US$2141 (95$ 1023, while the costs of major depression were US$ 3313 (95% CI ¼ 1234–5390) higher than the base rate. The costs of minor depression per 1 million inhabitants were 160 million dollars per year, which is somewhat less than the costs of major depression (192 million dollars per year). Conclusion: The economic costs associated with minor depression are considerable and approach those of major depression

Death, dying and informatics: misrepresenting religion on MedLine

BACKGROUND: The globalization of medical science carries for doctors worldwide a correlative duty to deepen their understanding of patients' cultural contexts and religious backgrounds, in order to satisfy each as a unique individual. To become better informed, practitioners may turn to MedLine, but it is unclear whether the information found there is an accurate representation of culture and religion. To test MedLine's representation of this field, we chose the topic of death and dying in the three major monotheistic religions. METHODS: We searched MedLine using PubMed in order to retrieve and thematically analyze full-length scholarly journal papers or case reports dealing with religious traditions and end-of-life care. Our search consisted of a string of words that included the most common denominations of the three religions, the standard heading terms used by the National Reference Center for Bioethics Literature (NRCBL), and the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) used by the National Library of Medicine. Eligible articles were limited to English-language papers with an abstract. RESULTS: We found that while a bibliographic search in MedLine on this topic produced instant results and some valuable literature, the aggregate reflected a selection bias. American writers were over-represented given the global prevalence of these religious traditions. Denominationally affiliated authors predominated in representing the Christian traditions. The Islamic tradition was under-represented. CONCLUSION: MedLine's capability to identify the most current, reliable and accurate information about purely scientific topics should not be assumed to be the same case when considering the interface of religion, culture and end-of-life care

Probing the Heterogeneity of Protein Kinase Activation in Cells by Super-Resolution Microscopy

Heterogeneity of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) activation in genetically identical cells, which occurs in response to epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling, remains poorly understood. MAPK cascades integrate signals emanating from different EGFR spatial locations, including the plasma membrane and endocytic compartment. We previously hypothesized that in EGF-stimulated cells the MAPK phosphorylation (pMAPK) level and activity are largely determined by the spatial organization of the EGFR clusters within the cell. For experimental testing of this hypothesis, we used super-resolution microscopy to define EGFR clusters by receptor numbers (N) and average intra-cluster distances (d). From this data, we predicted the extent of pMAPK with 85% accuracy on a cell-to-cell basis with control data returning 54% accuracy (P50nm were most predictive for pMAPK level in cells. Electron microscopy revealed that these large clusters were primarily localized to the limiting membrane of multivesicular bodies (MVB). Many tighter packed dimers/multimers (d<50nm) were found on intraluminal vesicles within MVBs, where they were unlikely to activate MAPK because of the physical separation. Our results suggest that cell-to-cell differences in N and d contain crucial information to predict EGFR-activated cellular pMAPK levels and explain pMAPK heterogeneity in isogenic cells

Economic tools to promote transparency and comparability in the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement culminates a six-year transition towards an international climate policy architecture based on parties submitting national pledges every five years1. An important policy task will be to assess and compare these contributions2, 3. We use four integrated assessment models to produce metrics of Paris Agreement pledges, and show differentiated effort across countries: wealthier countries pledge to undertake greater emission reductions with higher costs. The pledges fall in the lower end of the distributions of the social cost of carbon and the cost-minimizing path to limiting warming to 2 °C, suggesting insufficient global ambition in light of leaders’ climate goals. Countries’ marginal abatement costs vary by two orders of magnitude, illustrating that large efficiency gains are available through joint mitigation efforts and/or carbon price coordination. Marginal costs rise almost proportionally with income, but full policy costs reveal more complex regional patterns due to terms of trade effects

Cognitive appraisal of environmental stimuli induces emotion-like states in fish

The occurrence of emotions in non-human animals has been the focus of debate over the years. Recently, an interest in expanding this debate to non-tetrapod vertebrates and to invertebrates has emerged. Within vertebrates, the study of emotion in teleosts is particularly interesting since they represent a divergent evolutionary radiation from that of tetrapods, and thus they provide an insight into the evolution of the biological mechanisms of emotion. We report that Sea Bream exposed to stimuli that vary according to valence (positive, negative) and salience (predictable, unpredictable) exhibit different behavioural, physiological and neuromolecular states. Since according to the dimensional theory of emotion valence and salience define a two-dimensional affective space, our data can be interpreted as evidence for the occurrence of distinctive affective states in fish corresponding to each the four quadrants of the core affective space. Moreover, the fact that the same stimuli presented in a predictable vs. unpredictable way elicited different behavioural, physiological and neuromolecular states, suggests that stimulus appraisal by the individual, rather than an intrinsic characteristic of the stimulus, has triggered the observed responses. Therefore, our data supports the occurrence of emotion-like states in fish that are regulated by the individual's perception of environmental stimuli.European Commission [265957 Copewell]; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [SFRH/BD/80029/2011, SFRH/BPD/72952/2010]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The DNA methylome of cervical cells can predict the presence of ovarian cancer

The vast majority of epithelial ovarian cancer arises from tissues that are embryologically derived from the Müllerian Duct. Here, we demonstrate that a DNA methylation signature in easy-to-access Müllerian Duct-derived cervical cells from women with and without ovarian cancer (i.e. referred to as the Women’s risk IDentification for Ovarian Cancer index or WID-OC-index) is capable of identifying women with an ovarian cancer in the absence of tumour DNA with an AUC of 0.76 and women with an endometrial cancer with an AUC of 0.81. This and the observation that the cervical cell WID-OC-index mimics the epigenetic program of those cells at risk of becoming cancerous in BRCA1/2 germline mutation carriers (i.e. mammary epithelium, fallopian tube fimbriae, prostate) further suggest that the epigenetic misprogramming of cervical cells is an indicator for cancer predisposition. This concept has the potential to advance the field of risk-stratified cancer screening and prevention

Five-year stability in associations of health-related quality of life measures in community-dwelling older adults: the Rancho Bernardo Study

Ó The Author(s) 2010. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Objective This study examines the five-year stability of the association of SF-12 and SF-6D scores with scores on the longer SF-36 and its domains in community-dwelling older men and women. Methods Participants were 653 men and 917 women aged 50 and older who completed mailed surveys of HRQOL (1995, 2000). SF-36 physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component scores, domain scores; SF-12 PCS and MCS scores; and SF-6D scores were computed. Results Average age in 1995 was 68.2 ± 10.7 for men and 69.8 ± 11.3 for women. In 1995 and 2000, men had significantly higher scores on all measures (P’s \ 0.001). All three authors have contributed to the conception and design of the work and data analysis plan, interpretation of the data, and preparing the manuscript for publication. The second and third authors were in charge of the acquisition of subjects. The first author conducted the data analysis and wrote the first draft which was revised by the second and third authors. All authors were involved with the data in a manner substantial enough to take public responsibility for it. All authors believe the manuscript represents valid work and have reviewed the final version of the manuscript and approve of it for publication