Uncertainty in the determination of soil hydraulic parameters and its influence on the performance of two hydrological models of different complexity

Data of soil hydraulic properties forms often a limiting factor in unsaturated zone modelling, especially at the larger scales. Investigations for the hydraulic characterization of soils are time-consuming and costly, and the accuracy of the results obtained by the different methodologies is still debated. However, we may wonder how the uncertainty in soil hydraulic parameters relates to the uncertainty of the selected modelling approach. We performed an intensive monitoring study during the cropping season of a 10 ha maize field in Northern Italy. The data were used to: i) compare different methods for determining soil hydraulic parameters and ii) evaluate the effect of the uncertainty in these parameters on different variables (i.e. evapotranspiration, average water content in the root zone, flux at the bottom boundary of the root zone) simulated by two hydrological models of different complexity: SWAP, a widely used model of soil moisture dynamics in unsaturated soils based on Richards equation, and ALHyMUS, a conceptual model of the same dynamics based on a reservoir cascade scheme. We employed five direct and indirect methods to determine soil hydraulic parameters for each horizon of the experimental profile. Two methods were based on a parameter optimization of: a) laboratory measured retention and hydraulic conductivity data and b) field measured retention and hydraulic conductivity data. The remaining three methods were based on the application of widely used Pedo-Transfer Functions: c) Rawls and Brakensiek, d) HYPRES, and e) ROSETTA. Simulations were performed using meteorological, irrigation and crop data measured at the experimental site during the period June – October 2006. Results showed a wide range of soil hydraulic parameter values generated with the different methods, especially for the saturated hydraulic conductivity Ksat and the shape parameter a of the van Genuchten curve. This is reflected in a variability of the modeling results which is, as expected, different for each model and each variable analysed. The variability of the simulated water content in the root zone and of the bottom flux for different soil hydraulic parameter sets is found to be often larger than the difference between modeling results of the two models using the same soil hydraulic parameter set. Also we found that a good agreement in simulated soil moisture patterns may occur even if evapotranspiration and percolation fluxes are significantly different. Therefore multiple output variables should be considered to test the performances of methods and model

Balancing between cognitive and semantic acceptability of arguments

This paper addresses the problem concerning approximating human cognitions and semantic extensions regarding acceptability status of arguments. We introduce three types of logical equilibriums in terms of satisfiability, entailment and semantic equivalence in order to analyse balance of human cognitions and semantic extensions. The generality of our proposal is shown by the existence conditions of equilibrium solutions. The applicability of our proposal is demonstrated by the fact that it detects a flaw of argumentation actually taking place in an online forum and suggests its possible resolution

Self-reported price of cigarettes, consumption and compensatory behaviours in a cohort of Mexican smokers before and after a cigarette tax increase

This paper presents a novel SAT-based approach for the computation of extensions in abstract argumentation, with focus on preferred semantics, and an empirical evaluation of its performances. The approach is based on the idea of reducing the problem of computing complete extensions to a SAT problem and then using a depth-first search method to derive preferred extensions. The proposed approach has been tested using two distinct SAT solvers and compared with three state-of-the-art systems for preferred extension computation. It turns out that the proposed approach delivers significantly better performances in the large majority of the considered cases

Colony size predicts division of labour in Attine ants

Division of labour is central to the ecological success of eusocial insects, yet the evolutionary factors driving increases in complexity in division of labour are little known. The size–complexity hypothesis proposes that, as larger colonies evolve, both non-reproductive and reproductive division of labour become more complex as workers and queens act to maximize inclusive fitness. Using a statistically robust phylogenetic comparative analysis of social and environmental traits of species within the ant tribe Attini, we show that colony size is positively related to both non-reproductive (worker size variation) and reproductive (queen–worker dimorphism) division of labour. The results also suggested that colony size acts on non-reproductive and reproductive division of labour in different ways. Environmental factors, including measures of variation in temperature and precipitation, had no significant effects on any division of labour measure or colony size. Overall, these results support the size–complexity hypothesis for the evolution of social complexity and division of labour in eusocial insects. Determining the evolutionary drivers of colony size may help contribute to our understanding of the evolution of social complexity

Integral quantification of seasonal soil moisture changes in farmland by cosmic-ray neutrons

Soil moisture at the plot or hill-slope scale is an important link between local vadose zone hydrology and catchment hydrology. However, so far only a few methods are on the way to close this gap between point measurements and remote sensing. One new measurement methodology that could determine integral soil moisture at this scale is the aboveground sensing of cosmic-ray neutrons, more precisely of ground albedo neutrons. The present study performed ground albedo neutron sensing (GANS) at an agricultural field in northern Germany. To test the method it was accompanied by other soil moisture measurements for a summer period with corn crops growing on the field and a later autumn-winter period without crops and a longer period of snow cover. Additionally, meteorological data and aboveground crop biomass were included in the evaluation. Hourly values of ground albedo neutron sensing showed a high statistical variability. Six-hourly values corresponded well with classical soil moisture measurements, after calibration based on one reference dry period and three wet periods of a few days each. Crop biomass seemed to influence the measurements only to minor degree, opposed to snow cover which has a more substantial impact on the measurements. The latter could be quantitatively related to a newly introduced field neutron ratio estimated from neutron counting rates of two energy ranges. Overall, our study outlines a procedure to apply the ground albedo neutron sensing method based on devices now commercially available, without the need for accompanying numerical simulations and suited for longer monitoring periods after initial calibration

Tree-ring–based summer mean temperature variations in the Adamello–Presanella Group (Italian Central Alps), 1610–2008 AD

Abstract. Climate records from remote mountain sites and for century-long periods are usually lacking for most continents and also for the European Alps. However, detailed reconstructions of climate parameters for pre-instrumental periods in mountain areas, suffering of glacial retreat caused by recent global warming, are needed in the view of a better comprehension of the environmental dynamics. We present here the first annually-resolved reconstruction of summer (JJA) mean temperature for the Adamello–Presanella Group (Central European Alps), one of the most glaciated mountain groups of the Italian Central Alps. The reconstruction has been based on four larch tree-ring width chronologies derived from living trees sampled in four valleys surrounding the Group. The reconstruction spans from 1610 to 2008 and the statistical verification of the reconstruction demonstrates the positive skill of the tree-ring dataset in tracking summer temperature variability also in the recent period

Two-dimensional neutron scattering in a floating heavy water bridge

International audienceWhen high voltage is applied to pure water filled into two beakers close to each other, a connection forms spontaneously, giving the impression of a floating water bridge. This phenomenon is of special interest, since it comprises a number of phenomena currently tackled in modern water science. In this work, the first two dimensional structural study of a floating heavy water bridge is presented as a function of the azimuthal angle. A small anisotropy in the angular distribution of the intensity of the first structural peak was observed, indicating a preferred orientation of a part of the D 2 O molecules along the electric field lines without breaking of the local tetrahedral symmetry. The experiment is carried out by neutron scattering on a D 2 O bridge

Colony size predicts division of labour in Attine ants

Division of labour is central to the ecological success of eusocial insects, yet the evolutionary factors driving increases in complexity in division of labour are little known. The size–complexity hypothesis proposes that, as larger colonies evolve, both non-reproductive and reproductive division of labour become more complex as workers and queens act to maximize inclusive fitness. Using a statistically robust phylogenetic comparative analysis of social and environmental traits of species within the ant tribe Attini, we show that colony size is positively related to both non-reproductive (worker size variation) and reproductive (queen–worker dimorphism) division of labour. The results also suggested that colony size acts on non-reproductive and reproductive division of labour in different ways. Environmental factors, including measures of variation in temperature and precipitation, had no significant effects on any division of labour measure or colony size. Overall, these results support the size–complexity hypothesis for the evolution of social complexity and division of labour in eusocial insects. Determining the evolutionary drivers of colony size may help contribute to our understanding of the evolution of social complexity