Extreme Solar Events: Setting up a Paradigm

The Sun is magnetically active and often produces eruptive events on different energetic and temporal scales. Until recently, the upper limit of such events was unknown and believed to be roughly represented by direct instrumental observations. However, two types of extreme events were discovered recently: extreme solar energetic particle events on the multi-millennial time scale and super-flares on sun-like stars. Both discoveries imply that the Sun might rarely produce events, called extreme solar events (ESE), whose energy could be orders of magnitude greater than anything we have observed during recent decades. During the years following these discoveries, great progress has been achieved in collecting observational evidence, uncovering new events, making statistical analyses, and developing theoretical modelling. The ESE paradigm lives and is being developed. On the other hand, many outstanding questions still remain open and new ones emerge. Here we present an overview of the current state of the art and the forming paradigm of ESE from different points of view: solar physics, stellar–solar projections, cosmogenic-isotope data, modelling, historical data, as well as terrestrial, technological and societal effects of ESEs. Special focus is paid to open questions and further developments. This review is based on the joint work of the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team #510 (2020–2022)

Extreme Solar Events: Setting up a Paradigm

The Sun is magnetically active and often produces eruptive events on different energetic and temporal scales. Until recently, the upper limit of such events was unknown and believed to be roughly represented by direct instrumental observations. However, two types of extreme events were discovered recently: extreme solar energetic particle events on the multi-millennial time scale and super-flares on sun-like stars. Both discoveries imply that the Sun might rarely produce events, called extreme solar events (ESE), whose energy could be orders of magnitude greater than anything we have observed during recent decades. During the years following these discoveries, great progress has been achieved in collecting observational evidence, uncovering new events, making statistical analyses, and developing theoretical modelling. The ESE paradigm lives and is being developed. On the other hand, many outstanding questions still remain open and new ones emerge. Here we present an overview of the current state of the art and the forming paradigm of ESE from different points of view: solar physics, stellar–solar projections, cosmogenic-isotope data, modelling, historical data, as well as terrestrial, technological and societal effects of ESEs. Special focus is paid to open questions and further developments. This review is based on the joint work of the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team #510 (2020–2022)

Etude des anomalies isotopiques du soufre et de l'oxygène dans le sulfate d'origine volcanique enregistré dans les archives glaciaires

Plinian volcanism modify climate for several years by injecting large quantities of sulfur dioxide directly into the stratosphere, further oxidized to sulfuric acid droplets which reflect solar radiations and change the radiative properties of the atmosphere. Up to now, the study of volcanic signals preserved in glaciological archives was limited to the measurements of sulfate concentrations. We propose the use of new tools which are the sulfur and oxygen isotopic anomalies of volcanic sulfate recorded in Dome C and South Pole, to provide further insights into past volcanism.A study of the temporal evolution of the sulfur and oxygen isotopic anomalies in the Agung (March 1963) and the Pinatubo (June 1991) volcanic sulfate, has been conducted. The sulfur isotopic anomaly changes in sign with time from an initial positive component to a negative value. This change in sign is accompanied by a significant depletion of heavy isotopes with time. Sulfur isotopic anomaly is created during sulfur dioxide photochemical oxidation to sulfuric acid on a month time scale, indicative of a fast process. The oxygen isotopic anomaly seems to be linked to the quasi-biennal oscillation of the stratosphere.Twelve volcanic eruptions have been studied over the last millenium, by taking the whole sulfate signal. Sulfur isotopic anomaly allowed the identification of 6 stratospheric volcanic eruptions revealing the power of this tool when the nature of the eruption is unknown.Le volcanisme plinien modifie le climat pendant plusieurs années en injectant de grandes quantités de dioxyde de soufre directement dans la stratosphère, oxydé ensuite en gouttelettes d'acide sulfurique qui réfléchissent les rayonnements solaires et changent les propriétés radiatives de l'atmosphère. L'étude de signaux volcaniques préservés dans les archives glaciaires, consistait jusqu'à présent à simplement mesurer les concentrations de sulfate. Nous proposons l'utilisation de nouveaux traceurs que sont les anomalies isotopiques de l'oxygène et du soufre de sulfate volcanique enregistré à Dôme C et Pôle Sud pour apporter de nouvelles informations sur le volcanisme passé.Une étude de l'évolution temporelle des anomalies isotopiques de l'oxygène et du soufre dans les sulfates volcaniques de l'Agung (mars 1963) et du Pinatubo (juin 1991) a été menée. L'anomalie isotopique du soufre change de signe au cours du temps et passe d'une phase positive, au début du dépôt de sulfate à une phase négative à la fin. Ce changement de signe s'accompagne d'un appauvrissement en isotopes lourds avec le temps. L'anomalie isotopique du soufre est créée à partir d'une réaction d'oxydation photochimique de SO2 en acide sulfurique, suggérant un processus rapide qui dure un mois environ. L'anomalie isotopique de l'oxygène, quant à elle, a permis d'établir un lien avec l'oscillation quasi-biennale de la stratosphère.Douze signaux volcaniques ont été étudiés dans leur globalité au cours du dernier millénaire. L'anomalie isotopique du soufre a permis d'identifier 6 éruptions volcaniques stratosphériques révélant l'utilité d'un tel traceur lorsque la nature des éruptions est méconnue

A high-resolution Late Glacial to Holocene record of environmental change in the Mediterranean from Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania)

Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania) is the oldest extant lake in Europe and exhibits an outstanding degree of endemic biodiversity. Here, we provide new high-resolution stable isotope and geochemical data from a 10 m core (Co1262) through the Late Glacial to Holocene and discuss past climate and lake hydrology (TIC, δ13Ccalcite, δ18Ocalcite) as well as the terrestrial and aquatic vegetation response to climate (TOC, TOC/N, δ13Corganic, Rock Eval pyrolysis). The data identifies 3 main zones: (1) the Late Glacial–Holocene transition represented by low TIC and TOC contents, (2) the early to mid-Holocene characterised by high TOC and increasing TOC/N and (3) the Late Holocene–Present which shows a marked decrease in TIC and TOC. In general, an overall trend of increasing δ18Ocalcite from 9 ka to present suggests progressive aridification through the Holocene, consistent with previous records from Lake Ohrid and the wider Mediterranean region. Several proxies show commensurate excursions that imply the impact of short-term climate oscillations, such as the 8.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age. This is the best-dated and highest resolution archive of past Late Glacial and Holocene climate from Lake Ohrid and confirms the overriding influence of the North Atlantic in the north-eastern Mediterranean. The data presented set the context for the International Continental scientific Drilling Program Scientific Collaboration On Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid project cores recovered in spring–summer 2013, potentially dating back into the Lower Pleistocene, and will act as a recent calibration to reconstruct climate and hydrology over the entire lake history

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3:the last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations

Abstract The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data)

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Altres ajuts: Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC); Illumina; LifeArc; Medical Research Council (MRC); UKRI; Sepsis Research (the Fiona Elizabeth Agnew Trust); the Intensive Care Society, Wellcome Trust Senior Research Fellowship (223164/Z/21/Z); BBSRC Institute Program Support Grant to the Roslin Institute (BBS/E/D/20002172, BBS/E/D/10002070, BBS/E/D/30002275); UKRI grants (MC_PC_20004, MC_PC_19025, MC_PC_1905, MRNO2995X/1); UK Research and Innovation (MC_PC_20029); the Wellcome PhD training fellowship for clinicians (204979/Z/16/Z); the Edinburgh Clinical Academic Track (ECAT) programme; the National Institute for Health Research, the Wellcome Trust; the MRC; Cancer Research UK; the DHSC; NHS England; the Smilow family; the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health (CTSA award number UL1TR001878); the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania; National Institute on Aging (NIA U01AG009740); the National Institute on Aging (RC2 AG036495, RC4 AG039029); the Common Fund of the Office of the Director of the National Institutes of Health; NCI; NHGRI; NHLBI; NIDA; NIMH; NINDS.Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care or hospitalization after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes-including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)-in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease