Entropy-Based Strategies for Multi-Bracket Pools

Much work in the March Madness literature has discussed how to estimate the probability that any one team beats any other team. There has been strikingly little work, however, on what to do with these win probabilities. Hence we pose the multi-brackets problem: given these probabilities, what is the best way to submit a set of $n$ brackets to a March Madness bracket challenge? This is an extremely difficult question, so we begin with a simpler situation. In particular, we compare various sets of $n$ randomly sampled brackets, subject to different entropy ranges or levels of chalkiness (rougly, chalkier brackets feature fewer upsets). We learn three lessons. First, the observed NCAA tournament is a "typical" bracket with a certain "right" amount of entropy (roughly, a "right" amount of upsets), not a chalky bracket. Second, to maximize the expected score of a set of $n$ randomly sampled brackets, we should be successively less chalky as the number of submitted brackets increases. Third, to maximize the probability of winning a bracket challenge against a field of opposing brackets, we should tailor the chalkiness of our brackets to the chalkiness of our opponents' brackets

Heart rate variability and DNA methylation levels are altered after short-term metal fume exposure among occupational welders: a repeated-measures panel study

Background: In occupational settings, boilermakers are exposed to high levels of metallic fine particulate matter (PM2.5) generated during the welding process. The effect of welding PM2.5 on heart rate variability (HRV) has been described, but the relationship between PM2.5, DNA methylation, and HRV is not known. Methods: In this repeated-measures panel study, we recorded resting HRV and measured DNA methylation levels in transposable elements Alu and long interspersed nuclear element-1 (LINE-1) in peripheral blood leukocytes under ambient conditions (pre-shift) and right after a welding task (post-shift) among 66 welders. We also monitored personal PM2.5 level in the ambient environment and during the welding procedure. Results: The concentration of welding PM2.5 was significantly higher than background levels in the union hall (0.43 mg/m3 vs. 0.11 mg/m3, p < 0.0001). The natural log of transformed power in the high frequency range (ln HF) had a significantly negative association with PM2.5 exposure (β = -0.76, p = 0.035). pNN10 and pNN20 also had a negative association with PM2.5 exposure (β = -0.16%, p = 0.006 and β = -0.13%, p = 0.030, respectively). PM2.5 was positively associated with LINE-1 methylation [β = 0.79%, 5-methylcytosince (%mC), p = 0.013]; adjusted for covariates. LINE-1 methylation did not show an independent association with HRV. Conclusions: Acute decline of HRV was observed following exposure to welding PM2.5 and evidence for an epigenetic response of transposable elements to short-term exposure to high-level metal-rich particulates was reported. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-1279) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Understanding foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission biology: identification of the indicators of infectiousness

The control of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) outbreaks in non-endemic countries relies on the rapid detection and removal of infected animals. In this paper we use the observed relationship between the onset of clinical signs and direct contact transmission of FMDV to identify predictors for the onset of clinical signs and identify possible approaches to preclinical screening in the field. Threshold levels for various virological and immunological variables were determined using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and then tested using generalized linear mixed models to determine their ability to predict the onset of clinical signs. In addition, concordance statistics between qualitative real time PCR test results and virus isolation results were evaluated. For the majority of animals (71%), the onset of clinical signs occurred 3–4 days post infection. The onset of clinical signs was associated with high levels of virus in the blood, oropharyngeal fluid and nasal fluid. Virus is first detectable in the oropharyngeal fluid, but detection of virus in the blood and nasal fluid may also be good candidates for preclinical indicators. Detection of virus in the air was also significantly associated with transmission. This study is the first to identify statistically significant indicators of infectiousness for FMDV at defined time periods during disease progression in a natural host species. Identifying factors associated with infectiousness will advance our understanding of transmission mechanisms and refine intra-herd and inter-herd disease transmission models

Patients’ evaluations of patient safety in English general practices: a cross-sectional study

Background: The frequency and nature of safety problems and harm in general practices has previously relied on information supplied by health professionals, and scarce attention has been paid to experiences of patients. Aim: To examine patient-reported experiences and outcomes of patient safety in Primary Care in England. Design and Setting: Cross-sectional study in 45 general practices. Method: A postal version of the Patient Reported Experiences and Outcomes of Safety in Primary Care (PREOS-PC) questionnaire was sent to a random sample of 6,736 patients. Main outcome measures included “practice activation” (what does the practice do to create a safe environment); “patient activation” (how pro-active are patients in ensuring safe healthcare delivery); “experiences of safety events” (safety errors); “outcomes of safety” (harm); and “overall perception of safety” (how safe do patients rate their practice). Results: 1,244 patients (18.4%) returned completed questionnaires. Scores were high for “practice activation” (mean (standard error) = 80.4 out of 100 (2.0)) and low for “patient activation” (26.3 out of 100 (2.6)). A substantial proportion of patients (45%) reported having experienced at least one safety problem in the previous 12 months, mostly related to appointments (33%), diagnosis (17%), patient-provider communication (15%), and coordination between providers (14%). 221 patients (23%) reported some degree of harm in the previous 12 months. The overall assessment of the level of safety of their practices was generally high (86.0 out of 100 (16.8)). Conclusion: Priority areas for patient safety improvement in general practices in England include appointments, diagnosis, communication, coordination and patient activation

A comparison of the seasonal movements of tiger sharks and green turtles provides insight into their predator-prey relationship

During the reproductive season, sea turtles use a restricted area in the vicinity of their nesting beaches, making them vulnerable to predation. At Raine Island (Australia), the highest density green turtle Chelonia mydas rookery in the world, tiger sharks Galeocerdo cuvier have been observed to feed on green turtles, and it has been suggested that they may specialise on such air-breathing prey. However there is little information with which to examine this hypothesis. We compared the spatial and temporal components of movement behaviour of these two potentially interacting species in order to provide insight into the predator-prey relationship. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that tiger shark movements are more concentrated at Raine Island during the green turtle nesting season than outside the turtle nesting season when turtles are not concentrated at Raine Island. Turtles showed area-restricted search behaviour around Raine Island for ~3&ndash;4 months during the nesting period (November&ndash;February). This was followed by direct movement (transit) to putative foraging grounds mostly in the Torres Straight where they switched to area-restricted search mode again, and remained resident for the remainder of the deployment (53&ndash;304 days). In contrast, tiger sharks displayed high spatial and temporal variation in movement behaviour which was not closely linked to the movement behaviour of green turtles or recognised turtle foraging grounds. On average, tiger sharks were concentrated around Raine Island throughout the year. While information on diet is required to determine whether tiger sharks are turtle specialists our results support the hypothesis that they target this predictable and plentiful prey during turtle nesting season, but they might not focus on this less predictable food source outside the nesting season

A patient safety toolkit for family practices

Objectives: Major gaps remain in our understanding of primary care patient safety. We describe a toolkit for measuring patient safety in family practices. Methods: Six tools were used in 46 practices. These tools were: NHS Education for Scotland Trigger Tool, NHS Education for Scotland Medicines Reconciliation Tool, Primary Care Safequest, Prescribing Safety Indicators, PREOS-PC, and Concise Safe Systems Checklist. Results: PC-Safequest showed that most practices had a well-developed safety climate. However, the Trigger Tool revealed that a quarter of events identified were associated with moderate or substantial harm, with a third originating in primary care and avoidable. Although medicines reconciliation was undertaken within 2 days in >70% of cases, necessary discussions with a patient/carer did not always occur. The prescribing safety indicators identified 1,435 instances of potentially hazardous prescribing or lack of recommended monitoring (from 92,649 patients). The Concise Safe Systems Checklist found that 25% of staff thought their practice provided inadequate follow-up for vulnerable patients discharged from hospital and inadequate monitoring of non-collection of prescriptions. Most patients had a positive perception of the safety of their practice although 45% identified at least one safety problem in the past year. Conclusions: Patient safety is complex and multidimensional. The Patient Safety Toolkit is easy to use and hosted on a single platform with a collection of tools generating practical and actionable information. It enables family practices to identify safety deficits that they can review and change procedures to improve their patient safety across a key sets of patient safety issues

Demodex Blepharitis: A Comprehensive Review of the Disease, Current Management, and Emerging Therapies

Demodex blepharitis is a common disease of the eyelid, affecting approximately 25 million Americans. This article reviews what is known about the mechanisms and impact of Demodex blepharitis, risk factors, signs and symptoms, diagnostic techniques, current management options, and emerging treatments. Demodex mites contribute to blepharitis in several ways: direct mechanical damage, as a vector for bacteria, and by inducing hypersensitivity and inflammation. Risk factors for Demodex blepharitis include increasing age, rosacea, and diabetes. The costs, symptom burden, and psychosocial effects of Demodex blepharitis are considerable. The presence of collarettes is pathognomonic for Demodex blepharitis. Redness, dryness, discomfort, foreign body sensation, lash anomalies, and itching are also hallmarks of the disease. Although a number of oral, topical, eyelid hygiene and device-based options have been used clinically and evaluated in studies for the management of Demodex blepharitis, none have been FDA approved to treat the disease. Recent randomized controlled clinical trials suggest that lotilaner ophthalmic solution, 0.25%, is a topical treatment with the potential to eradicate Demodex mites and eliminate collarettes and eyelid redness for an extended period

The production and consumption activities relating to the celebrity artist

This paper considers the impact of the celebrity artist on the associated production and consumption activities. It also considers the role which entrepreneurial marketing plays in helping to create the celebrity artist aura. The artist Thomas Kinkade is used to illustrate how this occurs in practice. Here, authenticity and nostalgia dimensions are also influential factors. Underpinning these relationships are the roles played out by the media, including communication of celebrity artist identity, and the catalysing of its commodification within the celebrity artist brandscape. An enduring celebrity brand results due to the market creation activities of the celebrity artist. A conceptual model is developed which synthesises the factors behind the production and consumption of the celebrity artist which can stimulate further research. This paper provides innovative insight into the world of the celebrity artist by interrogating the market making and shaping devices behind successful production and consumption practices

Householders’ Mental Models of Domestic Energy Consumption: Using a Sort-And-Cluster Method to Identify Shared Concepts of Appliance Similarity

If in-home displays and other interventions are to successfully influence people's energy consumption, they need to communicate about energy in terms that make sense to users. Here we explore householders' perceptions of energy consumption, using a novel combination of card-sorting and clustering to reveal shared patterns in the way people think about domestic energy consumption. The data suggest that, when participants were asked to group appliances which they felt naturally 'went together', there are relatively few shared ideas about which appliances are conceptually related. To the extent participants agreed on which appliances belonged together, these groupings were based on activities (e.g., entertainment) and location within the home (e.g., kitchen); energy consumption was not an important factor in people's categorisations. This suggests messages about behaviour change aimed at reducing energy consumption might better be tied to social practices than to consumption itself

Biodiversity toolkit for housing providers

We co-created and published a Biodiversity Toolkit for Housing Associations, funded by a Natural Environment Research Council Innovate grant. The Biodiversity Toolkit presents a set of widely used management options to improve the quality of urban green spaces for wildlife and will help housing providers support biodiversity on their sites. In addition, the toolkit provides information to help housing providers support their estate care and environment teams to engage residents with wildlife. The project team comprised staff working at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Southern Housing Group, the Association of Local Environmental Records Centres, Bracknell Forest Council, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Wildlife Trust, Bracknell Forest Council and the Thames Valley Environmental Records Centre. This Biodiversity Toolkit was published through the Field Studies Council