An automated data management/analysis system for space shuttle orbiter tiles

An engineering data management system was combined with a nonlinear stress analysis program to provide a capability for analyzing a large number of tiles on the space shuttle orbiter. Tile geometry data and all data necessary of define the tile loads environment accessed automatically as needed for the analysis of a particular tile or a set of tiles. User documentation provided includes: (1) description of computer programs and data files contained in the system; (2) definitions of all engineering data stored in the data base; (3) characteristics of the tile anaytical model; (4) instructions for preparation of user input; and (5) a sample problem to illustrate use of the system. Description of data, computer programs, and analytical models of the tile are sufficiently detailed to guide extension of the system to include additional zones of tiles and/or additional types of analyse

AZ ÉLELMISZERGAZDASÁG KÜLKERESKEDELME 2016. év I–X. hónap

A mezőgazdasági és élelmiszeripari termékek kivitele 6607 millió eurót, behozatala 4216 millió eurót tett ki 2016 első tíz hónapjában. Az agrár-külkereskedelmi forgalom 2391 millió euró aktívumot eredményezett. A kivitel értéke 1,4 százalékkal, a behozatalé 4,8 százalékkal emelkedett, az aktívum 4,1 százalékkal, 103 millió euróval elmaradt a 2015. január–októberi értéktől. A mezőgazdasági és élelmiszeripari termékek részesedése a teljes nemzetgazdasági exportból 2016 októberében 8,9 százalék, 2016 január–októberi időszakában 8,5 százalék, az importból 2016 októberében 6,3 százalék, 2016 január–októberi időszakában 6,1 százalék volt. Az agrárexport aránya 2016 január–októberi időszakában 0,1 százalékponttal alacsonyabb, míg az import aránya 0,2 százalékponttal magasabb volt, mint 2015 első tíz hónapjában

Estimating uncertainty in spatial microsimulation approaches to small area estimation: a new approach to solving an old problem

A wide range of user groups from policy makers to media commentators demand ever more spatially detailed information yet the desired data are often not available at fine spatial scales. Increasingly, small area estimation (SAE) techniques are called upon to fill in these informational gaps by downscaling survey outcome variables of interest based on the relationships seen with key covariate data. In the process SAE techniques both rely extensively on small area Census data to enable their estimation and offer potential future substitute data sources in the event of Census data becoming unavailable. Whilst statistical approaches to SAE routinely incorporate intervals of uncertainty around central point estimates in order to indicate their likely accuracy, the continued absence of such intervals from spatial microsimulation SAE approaches severely limits their utility and arguably represents their key methodological weakness. The present article presents an innovative approach to resolving this key methodological gap based on the estimation of variance of the between-area error term from a multilevel regression specification of the constraint selection for iterative proportional fitting (IPF). The performance of the estimated credible intervals are validated against known Census data at the target small area and show an extremely high level of performance. As well as offering an innovative solution to this long-standing methodological problem, it is hoped more broadly that the research will stimulate the spatial microsimulation community to adopt and build on these foundations so that we can collectively move to a position where intervals of uncertainty are delivered routinely around spatial microsimulation small area point estimates

A 2-year intercomparison of the WAM-Cycle4 and the WAVEWATCH-III wave models implemented within the Mediterranean Sea

In this work we present the implementation of a wave forecast/hindcast system for the Mediterranean Sea at a 1/10º horizontal resolution and we show a first assessment of its performance by inter-comparing model results to observational data time series at selected points for the period 2000-2001. The system which is part of the POSEIDON-II operational system includes the WAM – Cycle4 and the WAVEWATCH-III wave forecast models (implemented within the same region) one way coupled with the non-hydrostatic version of the ETA atmospheric model which provides at 3-hour intervals the necessary wind velocity fields to the wave models. The same system but based on the WAM-Cycle4 wave model, has been used in the past for the production of the Aegean Sea wind and wave Atlas. Overall, the inter-comparison shows that both wave models are rather skilful in predicting the integral wave parameters with significant wave height skill scores in the range 0.85-0.90 and mean period scores in the range 0.77-0.83. It is also evident that WAM model has a tendency to overestimate mean wave periods while the opposite is true for WAVEWATCH-III model. Differences between the two models simulated spectra exist along the main passage of cyclonic systems over the Mediterranean Sea while in the wind seas dominated areas of the basin (the Aegean Sea for example) the two models show almost the same behavior

Iatrogenic Critical Care Procedure Complication Boot Camp: A Simulation‐Based Pilot Study

Background Traditional medical education strategies teach learners how to correctly perform procedures while neglecting to provide formal training on iatrogenic error management. Error management training (EMT) requires active exploration as well as explicit encouragement for learners to make and learn from errors during training. Simulation provides an excellent methodology to execute a curriculum on iatrogenic procedural complication management. We hypothesize that a standardized simulation‐based EMT curriculum will improve learner's confidence, cognitive knowledge, and performance in iatrogenic injury management. Methods This was a pilot, prospective, observational study performed in a simulation center using a curriculum developed to educate resident physicians on iatrogenic procedural complication management. Pre‐ and post‐intervention assessments included confidence surveys, cognitive questionnaires, and critical action checklists for six simulated procedure complications. Assessment data were analyzed using medians, interquartile ranges, and the paired change scores were tested for median equality to zero via Wilcoxon signed rank tests with p<0.05 considered statistically significant. Results Eighteen residents participated in the study curriculum. The median confidence increased significantly by a summed score of 12.5 (8.75 –17.25) (p<0.001). Similarly, the median knowledge significantly increased by 6 points (3 –8) from the pre‐ to post‐intervention assessment (p<0.001). For each of the simulation cases, the number of critical actions performed increased significantly (p<0.001 to p=0.002). Conclusion We demonstrated significant improvement in the confidence, clinical knowledge, and performance of critical actions after the completion of this curriculum. This pilot study provides evidence that a structured EMT curriculum is an effective method to teach management of iatrogenic injuries

What determines auditory similarity? The effect of stimulus group and methodology.

Two experiments on the internal representation of auditory stimuli compared the pairwise and grouping methodologies as means of deriving similarity judgements. A total of 45 undergraduate students participated in each experiment, judging the similarity of short auditory stimuli, using one of the methodologies. The experiments support and extend Bonebright's (1996) findings, using a further 60 stimuli. Results from both methodologies highlight the importance of category information and acoustic features, such as root mean square (RMS) power and pitch, in similarity judgements. Results showed that the grouping task is a viable alternative to the pairwise task with N > 20 sounds whilst highlighting subtle differences, such as cluster tightness, between the different task results. The grouping task is more likely to yield category information as underlying similarity judgements

Dynamic downscaling of the ERA-40 data using a mesoscale meteorological model

A sophisticated downscaling procedure that was applied to reproduce high resolution historical records of the atmospheric conditions across the Mediterranean region is presented in this paper. This was accomplished by the dynamical downscaling of the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts ERA-40 reanalyses with the aid of the atmospheric model of the POSEIDON weather forecasting system. The full three dimensional atmospheric fields with 6 hours of temporal resolution and the surface meteorological parameters at hourly intervals were produced for a 10-year period (1995-2004). The meteorological variables are readily available at 10 km resolution and may constitute the atmospheric forcing to drive wave, ocean hydrodynamic and hydrological models, as well as the baseline data for environmental impact assessment studies. A brief overview of the procedure and a quantitative estimation of the benefit of the new dynamical downscaling dataset are presented