Globally Gridded Satellite (GridSat) Observations for Climate Studies

Geostationary satellites have provided routine, high temporal resolution Earth observations since the 1970s. Despite the long period of record, use of these data in climate studies has been limited for numerous reasons, among them: there is no central archive of geostationary data for all international satellites, full temporal and spatial resolution data are voluminous, and diverse calibration and navigation formats encumber the uniform processing needed for multi-satellite climate studies. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project set the stage for overcoming these issues by archiving a subset of the full resolution geostationary data at approx.10 km resolution at 3 hourly intervals since 1983. Recent efforts at NOAA s National Climatic Data Center to provide convenient access to these data include remapping the data to a standard map projection, recalibrating the data to optimize temporal homogeneity, extending the record of observations back to 1980, and reformatting the data for broad public distribution. The Gridded Satellite (GridSat) dataset includes observations from the visible, infrared window, and infrared water vapor channels. Data are stored in the netCDF format using standards that permit a wide variety of tools and libraries to quickly and easily process the data. A novel data layering approach, together with appropriate satellite and file metadata, allows users to access GridSat data at varying levels of complexity based on their needs. The result is a climate data record already in use by the meteorological community. Examples include reanalysis of tropical cyclones, studies of global precipitation, and detection and tracking of the intertropical convergence zone

Do convection-permitting ensembles lead to more skilful short-range probabilistic rainfall forecasts over tropical East Africa?

Convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (CP-ENS) have been implemented in the mid-latitudes for weather forecasting timescales over the past decade, enabled by the increase in computational resources. Recently, efforts are being made to study the benefits of CP-ENS for tropical regions. This study examines CP-ENS forecasts produced by the UK Met Office over tropical East Africa, for 24 cases in the period April-May 2019. The CP-ENS, an ensemble with parametrized convection (Glob-ENS), and their deterministic counterparts are evaluated against rainfall estimates derived from satellite observations (GPM-IMERG). The CP configurations have the best representation of the diurnal cycle, although heavy rainfall amounts are overestimated compared to observations. Pairwise comparisons between the different configurations reveal that the CP-ENS is generally the most skilful forecast for both 3-h and 24-h accumulations of heavy rainfall (97th percentile), followed by the CP deterministic forecast. More precisely, probabilistic forecasts of heavy rainfall, verified using a neighbourhood approach, show that the CP-ENS is skilful at scales greater than 100 km, significantly better than the Glob-ENS, although not as good as found in the mid-latitudes. Skill decreases with lead time and varies diurnally, especially for CP forecasts. The CP-ENS is under-spread both in terms of forecasting the locations of heavy rainfall and in terms of domain-averaged rainfall. This study demonstrates potential benefits in using CP-ENS for operational forecasting of heavy rainfall over tropical Africa and gives specific suggestions for further research and development, including probabilistic forecast guidance

The West African Monsoon Onset: a concise comparison of definitions

The onset of the West African Monsoon (WAM) marks a vital time for local and regional stakeholders. Whilst the seasonal progression of monsoon winds and the related migration of precipitation from the Guinea Coast towards the Soudan/Sahel is apparent, there exist contrasting man-made definitions of what the WAM onset means. Broadly speaking, onset can be analyzed regionally, locally or over a designated intermediate scale. There are at least eighteen distinct definitions of the WAM onset in publication with little work done on comparing observed onset from different definitions or comparing onset realizations across different datasets and resolutions. Here, nine definitions have been calculated using multiple datasets of different metrics at different resolution. It is found that mean regional onset dates are consistent across multiple datasets and different definitions. There is low inter-annual variability in regional onset suggesting that regional seasonal forecasting of the onset provides few benefits over climatology. In contrast, local onsets show high spatial, inter-annual and inter-definition variability. Furthermore it is found that there is little correlation between local onset dates and regional onset dates across West Africa implying a disharmony between regional measures of onset and the experience on a local scale. The results of this study show that evaluation of seasonal monsoon onset forecasts is far from straightforward. Given a seasonal forecasting model, it is possible to simultaneously have a good and bad prediction of monsoon onset simply through selection of onset definition and observational dataset used for comparison

Investigating the role of c-Jun N-terminal kinases in the proliferation of Werner syndrome fibroblasts using diaminopyridine inhibitors

Fibroblasts derived from the progeroid Werner syndrome show reduced replicative lifespan and a "stressed" morphology, both alleviated using the MAP kinase inhibitor SB203580. However, interpretation of these data is problematical because although SB203580 has the stress-activated kinases p38 and JNK1/2 as its preferred targets, it does show relatively low overall kinase selectivity. Several lines of data support a role for both p38 and JNK1/2 activation in the control of cellular proliferation and also the pathology of diseases of ageing, including type II diabetes, diseases to which Werner Syndrome individuals are prone, thus making the use of JNK inhibitors attractive as possible therapeutics. We have thus tested the effects of the widely used JNK inhibitor SP600125 on the proliferation and morphology of WS cells. In addition we synthesised and tested two recently described aminopyridine based inhibitors. SP600125 treatment resulted in the cessation of proliferation of WS cells and resulted in a senescent-like cellular phenotype that does not appear to be related to the inhibition of JNK1/2. In contrast, use of the more selective aminopyridine CMPD 6o at concentrations that fully inhibit JNK1/2 had a positive effect on cellular proliferation of immortalised WS cells, but no effect on the replicative lifespan of primary WS fibroblasts. In addition, CMPD 6o corrected the stressed WS cellular morphology. The aminopyridine CMPD 6r, however, had little effect on WS cells. CMDP 6o was also found to be a weak inhibitor of MK2, which may partially explain its effects on WS cells, since MK2 is known to be involved in regulating cellular morphology via HSP27 phosphorylation, and is thought to play a role in cell cycle arrest. These data suggest that total JNK1/2 activity does not play a substantial role in the proliferation control in WS cells

Predicting change in quality of life from age 79 to 90 in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

Purpose: Quality of life (QoL) decreases in very old age, and is strongly related to health outcomes and mortality. Understanding the predictors of QoL and change in QoL amongst the oldest old may suggest potential targets for intervention. This study investigated change in QoL from age 79 to 90 years in a group of older adults in Scotland, and identified potential predictors of that change. Method: Participants were members of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921 who attended clinic visits at age 79 (n = 554) and 90 (n = 129). Measures at both time points included QoL (WHOQOL-BREF: four domains and two single items), anxiety and depression, objective health, functional ability, self-rated health, loneliness, and personality. Results: Mean QoL declined from age 79 to 90. Participants returning at 90 had scored significantly higher at 79 on most QoL measures, and exhibited better objective health and functional ability, and lower anxiety and depression than non-returners. Hierarchical multiple regression models accounted for 20.3–56.3% of the variance in QoL at age 90. Baseline QoL was the strongest predictor of domain scores (20.3–35.6% variance explained), suggesting that individual differences in QoL judgements remain largely stable. Additional predictors varied by the QoL domain and included self-rated health, loneliness, and functional and mood decline between age 79 and 90 years. Conclusions: This study has identified potential targets for interventions to improve QoL in the oldest old. Further research should address causal pathways between QoL and functional and mood decline, perceived health and loneliness

Psychosocial factors and health as determinants of quality of life in community-dwelling older adults.

PURPOSE: It is important to understand the determinants of differences in quality of life in old age and to include a wide range of possible predictors. The present study investigated the determinants of quality of life in two groups of older adults for whom there was an unusually informative set of possible predictor variables. METHOD: Participants were members of the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 (n = 550) or 1936 (n = 1,091). Four facets of quality of life (QoL) and general QoL were measured using the WHOQOL-BREF. Possible determinants included personality traits, measured with the International Personality Item Pool (IPIP) scales; childhood and old age general cognitive ability, measured with the Moray House Test; minor psychological symptoms, measured with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS); physical health, assessed by grip strength and cardiovascular disease history; and sociodemographic factors, assessed by interview. RESULTS: Linear regression analyses revealed that HADS depression had the greatest influence on quality of life. Personality traits, most notably Emotional Stability, also predicted quality of life to varying degrees, along with factors reflecting current life circumstances. There were differences between the two cohorts in the variables which predicted quality of life. There were different, conceptually relevant, contributions to the different QoL facets. CONCLUSIONS: Personality traits and minor depressive symptoms have an important influence on self-reported quality of life in old age. Quality of life may be influenced more by current than past circumstances, and this relationship may change with age