Stochastic Models to Generate Geospatial-, Temporal-, and Cross-Correlated Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures

Weather generators are tools used to downscale monthly to seasonal climate forecasts, from numerical climate models to daily values for use as inputs for crop and other environmental models. One main limitation of most of weather generators is that they do not incorporate neither the spatial/temporal correlations between/within sites nor the cross-correlations between variables, characteristics specially important when aggregating, for example, simulated crop yields, freeze events, or heat waves in a watershed or region.Three models were developed to generate realization of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for multiple sites. The first model incorporates only spatial correlation, whereas temporal correlation using a 1-day lag and cross-correlation between variables were added to model one, respectively, by the other two models. Vectors of correlated random numbers were rescaled to temperature values by multiplying each element with the standard deviation and adding the mean of the corresponding weather station. An extension of Crout’s algorithm was developed to enable the factorization of non positive definite matrices. Monthly spatial correlations of generated daily maximum and minimum temperatures between all pairs of weather stations closely matched their observed counterparts. Performance was analyzed by comparing the root mean squared error, temporal semi variograms, correlation/cross-correlation matrices, multi annual monthly means, and standard deviations

Interpolación climática para estudios de recursos de la tierra y uso de la tierra en regiones montañosas

Investigadores en el campo de recursos naturales enfrentan el problema de falta de datos. Esta investigación se desarrolló en dos zonas de los Andes del norte: en Perú cuencas de La Encañada y Tambomayo (Cajamarca) y en Ecuador cuencas de Chitán y San Gabriel. El primer paso fue desarrollar, calibrar, evaluar y validar modelos empíricos y basados en procesos físicos para la interpolación de datos meteorológicos en terrenos de topografía compleja. El uso de pronósticos climáticos estacionales generados por los Modelos de Circulación Global (MCG) también fueron analizados para explorar la posibilidad de ayudar a los tomadores de decisiones. Los efectos de la resolución espacial de información climática como factor de formación de suelo fueron analizadas para utilizarlas en la desagregación de unidades de suelo en los mapeos de suelo digitales. Como resultados se desarrollaron dos modelos basados en procesos físicos, uno para interpolar máximas y mínimas temperaturas y el otro para precipitación. Cuatro modelos empíricos para estimar radiación solar incidente fueron evaluados y calibrados. La factibilidad de generar pronóstico de cosechas mediante el uso de MCG fue analizado mediante la combinación de modelos estadísticos de cultivos agregados a nivel de cuenca.Researchers in the field of natural resources face the problem of lack of data. This research was carried out in two areas of the northern Andes: in Peru, La Encañada and Tambomayo watersheds (Cajamarca) and in Ecuador, Chitan and San Gabriel watersheds. The first step was to develop, calibrate, evaluate and validate empirical and physically based models for the interpolation of meteorological data in terrain with complex topography. The use of seasonal climate forecasts generated by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were also analyzed to explore the possibility of assisting decision makers. The effects of spatial resolution of climate information as a soil formation factor were analyzed for use in the disaggregation of soil units in digital soil mapping. As results, two models based on physical processes were developed, one for interpolating maximum and minimum temperatures and the other for precipitation. Four empirical models for estimating incident solar radiation were evaluated and calibrated. The feasibility of generating crop forecasts using GCMs was analyzed by combining statistical crop models aggregated at the watershed level.Países Bajos. Wageningen University (SM_CRSP

ENSO Teleconnection Pattern Changes over the Southeastern United States under a Climate Change Scenario in CMIP5 Models

A strong teleconnection exists between the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Pacific and the winter precipitation in the southeastern United States (SE US).This feature is adopted to validate the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in this study. In addition, the authors examine whether the teleconnection pattern persists in the future under a global warming scenario. Generally, most of the eight selected models show a positive correlation between November SST over Ni˜no 3 region and December–February (DJF) mean daily precipitation anomalies over the SE US, consistent with the observation. However, the models with poor realization of skewness of Ni˜no indices fail to simulate the realistic teleconnection pattern in the historical simulation. In the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) run, all of the models maintain positive and slightly increased correlation patterns. It is noteworthy that the region with strong teleconnection pattern shifts northward in the future. Increased variance of winter precipitation due to the SST teleconnection is shown over Alabama and Georgia rather than over Florida under the RCP8.5 scenario in most of themodels, differing fromthe historical run in which the precipitation in Florida is the most attributable to the eastern Pacific SST

Estrategia publicitaria para promover el básquetbol como beneficio de la salud en el contexto post Covid-19, Chiclayo 2022

El Covid1-9 ha dejado daños colaterales en las víctimas que la padecieron, por ello, es significativo la destreza de un deporte ya que contribuye a optimizar el estado de salud. En la presente indagación se esbozó como propósito identificar las estrategias publicitarias para promover al basquetbol en redes sociales como beneficio de la Salud en el contexto post Covid19. La pesquisa fue de paradigma naturalista, de tipo cualitativa ya que se empleó a la entrevista como técnica y la guía de preguntas como instrumento que se aplicó a expertos sobre la publicidad y salud, así como a un basquetbolista. El resultado obtenido fue que el basquetbol es una disciplina deportiva que no tiene mucha presencia ni relevancia y que el Gobierno no genera políticas públicas para el incremento de su práctica, ya que esta disciplina contribuye a mejorar la salud especialmente de aquellos que han sido víctimas de Covid-19, así mismo, las redes sociales son las estrategias publicitarias que contribuyen a su promoción. Finalmente se concluye, que las destrezas publicitarias en base a las redes sociales son las más aptas para promover el básquetbol como beneficio de la salud en el contexto post Covid-19

ENSO Teleconnection Pattern Changes over the Southeastern United States under a Climate Change Scenario in CMIP5 Models

A strong teleconnection exists between the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Pacific and the winter precipitation in the southeastern United States (SE US).This feature is adopted to validate the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in this study. In addition, the authors examine whether the teleconnection pattern persists in the future under a global warming scenario. Generally, most of the eight selected models show a positive correlation between November SST over Ni˜no 3 region and December–February (DJF) mean daily precipitation anomalies over the SE US, consistent with the observation. However, the models with poor realization of skewness of Ni˜no indices fail to simulate the realistic teleconnection pattern in the historical simulation. In the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) run, all of the models maintain positive and slightly increased correlation patterns. It is noteworthy that the region with strong teleconnection pattern shifts northward in the future. Increased variance of winter precipitation due to the SST teleconnection is shown over Alabama and Georgia rather than over Florida under the RCP8.5 scenario in most of themodels, differing fromthe historical run in which the precipitation in Florida is the most attributable to the eastern Pacific SST

Tradeoffs in Model Performance and Effort for Long-Term Phosphorus Leaching Based on In Situ Field Data

Phosphorus and N are critical nutrients for agriculture but are also responsible for surface water enrichment that leads to toxic algal growth. Although P loading to surface waters has traditionally been thought to occur primarily in surface runoff, contributions from subsurface transport can also be significant. The primary objectives of this research were to evaluate several methods of representing macropore flow and transport in a finite element model using plot-scale infiltration and leaching data and to compare several models of various levels of complexity to simulate long-term P leaching. To determine flow and transport parameters, single- and dual-porosity models in HYDRUS-2D were calibrated with infiltration, Cl−, and P data from a 22-h plot-scale leaching experiment on a silt loam mantle with gravel subsoil. Both homogeneous and heterogeneous gravel profiles were simulated. The dual-porosity model with heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity best matched experimental data, with physical nonequilibrium (dual porosity) being more important than two-dimensional (2D) heterogeneity. Long-term (9 yr) P leaching to the water table (3 m below the soil surface) at the field site was simulated with both one-dimensional (1D) and 2D models using the calibrated parameters. There was little difference between analogous 1D and 2D models, suggesting that HYDRUS-1D may be sufficient to model long-term P leaching. Overall, the most important elements for accurately simulating P leaching in this silt loam and gravel soil profile were found to be (i) field-measured hydraulic conductivity of the limiting soil layer, (ii) calibrated dispersivity, and (iii) dual-porosity, in some circumstances

Formación docente y curricularización de DDHH: políticas universitarias de transformación educativa, social y territorial

Este trabajo da cuenta de la conformación de un espacio de formación docente como parte del proceso de curricularización de la temática de derechos humanos en la construcción y potenciación de la vida universitaria. Partiendo de una propuesta elaborada hace algunos años y en el marco del compromiso asumido por el conjunto de universidades nacionales en la Red Interuniversitaria de DDHH del CIN (que además logró configurar un curso de formación docente consensuado entre la RIDDHH, la Secretaría de Políticas Universitarias (SPU-MEN) y la Secretaría de DDHH Nacional) se propuso la constitución de un espacio de formación de profesora/es en la Universidad Nacional Arturo Jauretche (UNAJ). Apuntando a consolidar las prácticas de enseñanza-aprendizaje de la Educación Superior en base a los valores y enfoque de los DDHH, este curso se estructura como fundamental (y con rango de obligatoriedad) para la carrera docente interna –junto al despliegue de las áreas de investigación y vinculación- del proyecto universitario de UNAJ con impacto en el territorio societal en el que se inserta.Universidad Nacional de La Plat

The Fingerprint of Climate Change and Urbanization in South Korea

Understanding long-term changes in precipitation and temperature patterns is important in the detection and characterization of climate change, as is understanding the implications of climate change when performing impact assessments. This study uses a statistically robust methodology to quantify long-, medium- and short-term changes for evaluating the degree to which climate change and urbanization have caused temporal changes in precipitation and temperature in South Korea. We sought to identify a fingerprint of changes in precipitation and temperature based on statistically significant differences at multiple-timescales. This study evaluates historical weather data during a 40-year period (1973–2012) and from 54 weather stations. Our results demonstrate that between 1993–2012, minimum and maximum temperature trends in the vicinity of urban and agricultural areas are significantly different from the two previous decades (1973–1992). The results for precipitation amounts show significant differences in urban areas. These results indicate that the climate in urbanized areas has been affected by both the heat island effect and global warming-caused climate change. The increase in the number of rainfall events in agricultural areas is highly significant, although the temporal trends for precipitation amounts showed no significant differences. Overall, the impacts of climate change and urbanization in South Korea have not been continuous over time and have been expressed locally and regionally in terms of precipitation and temperature changes

Nitric oxide-inhibited chloride transport in cortical thick ascending limbs is reversed by 8-iso-prostaglandin-F2α

Background: Salt reabsorption in the cortical thick ascending limb (cTAL) is regulated by opposing effects. Thus, while nitric oxide (NO) inhibits sodium chloride (NaCl) reabsorption, 8-iso-prostaglandin-F2α (8-iso-PGF2α) stimulates it. Their interaction, however, has not been evaluated in the cTAL. Because 8-iso-PGF2α has considerable stability while NO is a free radical with a short half-life, we hypothesized that, in the cTAL, the inhibition of NaCl absorption will be reversed by 8-iso-PGF2α. Methods: Chloride absorption (JCl) was measured in isolated perfused cTALs. We also evaluated whether activation of protein kinase A (PKA) is required for this interaction. Since cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) is a major messenger for the 8-iso-PGF2α signaling cascade, and NO inhibits JCl by decreasing cAMP bioavailability, we measured 8-iso-PGF2α-stimulated cAMP in the presence of sodium nitroprusside (SNP). Results: Basal JCl was 274 ± 85 pmol/min/mm. The NO donor, SNP (10-6 M), decreased JCl by 41% (333.5 ± 35.2 pmol/min/mm vs. 195.9 ± 26.1 pmol/min/mm), while 8-iso-PGF2α (100 μM) increased JCl to 315 ± 46 pmol/min/mm (p \u3c 0.01), reversing the effects of the NO donor. While SNP inhibited JCl, 8-iso-PGF2α failed to increase JCl in the presence of H89. Basal cAMP was 56.3 ± 13.1 fmol/min/mm, that in the presence of the NO donor was 57.8 ± 6.1 fmol/min/mm, and that with 8-iso-PGF2α increased it to 92.1 ± 2.9 fmol/min/mm (n = 10, p \u3c 0.04). Conclusion: We concluded that 1) NO-induced inhibition of JCl in the cTAL can be reversed by 8-iso-PGF2α, 2) 8-iso-PGF2α and NO interaction requires PKA to control JCl in this nephron segment, and 3) in the presence of NO, 8-iso-PGF2α continues to stimulate JCl because NO cannot reverse 8-iso-PGF2α-stimulated cAMP level

Assessing Predictability of Cotton Yields in the Southeastern United States Based on Regional Atmospheric Circulation and Surface Temperatures

The potential to predict cotton yields up to one month before planting in the southeastern United States is assessed in this research. To do this, regional atmospheric variables that are related to historic summer rainfall and cotton yields were identified. The use of simulations of those variables from a global circulation model (GCM) for estimating cotton yields was evaluated. The authors analyzed detrended cotton yields (1970–2004) from 48 counties in Alabama and Georgia, monthly rainfall from 53 weather stations, monthly reanalysis data of 850- and 200-hPa winds and surface temperatures over the southeast U.S. region, and monthly predictions of the same variables from the ECHAM 4.5 GCM. Using the reanalysis climate data, it was found that meridional wind fields and surface temperatures around the Southeast were significantly correlated with county cotton yields (explaining up to 52% of the interannual variability of observed yields), and with rainfall over most of the region, especially during April and July. The tendency for cotton yields to be lower during years with atmospheric circulation patterns that favor higher humidity and rainfall is consistent with increased incidence of disease in cotton during flowering and harvest periods under wet conditions. Cross-validated yield estimations based on ECHAM retrospective simulations of wind and temperature fields forced by observed SSTs showed significant predictability skill (up to 55% and 60% hit skill scores based on terciles and averages, respectively). It is concluded that there is potential to predict cotton yields in the Southeast by using variables that are forecast by numerical climate models