'Turning' everywhere in IR: on the sociological underpinnings of the field’s proliferating turns

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this recordIn the past two decades calls for International Relations (IR) to ‘turn’ have multiplied. Having reflected on Philosophy’s own “linguistic turn” in the 1980s and 1990s, IR appears today in the midst of taking – almost simultaneously – a range of different turns, from the aesthetic to the affective, from the historical to the practice, from the new material to the queer. This paper seeks to make sense of this puzzling development. Building on Bourdieu’s sociology of science, we argue that while the turns ostensibly bring about (or resuscitate) ambitious philosophical, ontological, and epistemological questions in order to challenge what is deemed to constitute the ‘mainstream’ of IR, their impact is more likely to be felt at the ‘margins’ of the discipline. From this perspective, claiming a turn constitutes a position-enhancing move for scholars seeking to accumulate social capital, understood as scientific authority, and become ‘established heretics’ within the intellectual subfield of critical IR. We therefore expect the proliferation of turns to reshape more substantively what it means to do critical IR, rather than turning the whole discipline on its hea

Macroeconomic Regimes

We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. Output and inflation shocks shift to the low volatility regime around 1985 and 1990, respectively. However, we also identify multiple shifts between accommodating and active monetary policy regimes, which play an as important role as shock volatility in driving the volatility of the macro variables. We provide new estimates of the onset and demise of the Great Moderation and quantify the relative role played by macro-shocks and monetary policy. The estimated rational expectations model exhibits indeterminacy in the mean square stability sense, mainly because monetary policy is excessively passive

ISIS’ clash of civilizations: Constructing the ‘West’ in terrorist propaganda

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Taylor & Francis (Routledge) via the DOI in this record.Depictions of the West abound in the propaganda produced by the self-proclaimed "Islamic State," presenting to potentially sympathetic audiences an overwhelmingly negative image of a supposedly homogeneous political entity. Combining quantitative and qualitative language and visual analysis, we systematically expose the various facets of this image and analyze the overall picture. Drawing on the "clash of civilizations" literature as well as on research on extremist language, we conceptualize this presentation of the West as a powerful radicalizing voice shaping today’s global civilizational politics.Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC

Pliocene colonization of the Mediterranean by Great White Shark inferred from fossil records, historical jaws, phylogeographic and divergence time analyses

Aim: Determine the evolutionary origin of the heretofore poorly characterized contemporary Great White Shark (GWS; Carcharodon carcharias) of the Mediterranean Sea, using phylogenetic and dispersal vicariance analyses to trace back its global palaeo-migration pattern. Location: Mediterranean Sea. Taxon: Carcharodon carcharias. Methods: We have built the largest mitochondrial DNA control region (CR) sequence dataset for the Mediterranean GWS from referenced historical jaws spanning the 19th and 20th centuries. Mediterranean and global GWS CR sequences were analysed for genetic diversity, phylogenetic relationships and divergence time. A Bayes factor approach was used to assess two scenarios of GWS lineage divergence and emergence of the Mediterranean GWS line using fossil records and palaeo-geographical events for calibration of the molecular clock. Results: The results confirmed a closer evolutionary relationship between Mediterranean GWS and populations from Australia–New Zealand and the North-eastern Pacific coast rather than populations from South African and North-western Atlantic. The Mediterranean GWS lineage showed the lowest genetic diversity at the global level, indicating its recent evolutionary origin. An evaluation of various divergence scenarios determined the Mediterranean GWS lineage most likely appeared some 3.23 million years ago by way dispersal/vicariance from Australian/Pacific palaeo-populations. Main conclusion: Based on the fossil records, phylogeographic patterns and divergence time, we revealed that the Mediterranean GWS population originated in the Pliocene following the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Colonization of the Mediterranean by GWS likely occurred via an eastward palaeo-migration of Australian/eastern Pacific elements through the Central American Seaway, before the complete closure of the Isthmus of Panama. This Pliocene origin scenario contrasts with a previously proposed scenario in which Australian GWS colonized the Mediterranean via antipodean northward migration resulting from navigational errors from South Africa during Quaternary climatic oscillations

Postglacial expansion of the arctic keystone copepod calanus glacialis

Calanus glacialis, a major contributor to zooplankton biomass in the Arctic shelf seas, is a key link between primary production and higher trophic levels that may be sensitive to climate warming. The aim of this study was to explore genetic variation in contemporary populations of this species to infer possible changes during the Quaternary period, and to assess its population structure in both space and time. Calanus glacialis was sampled in the fjords of Spitsbergen (Hornsund and Kongsfjorden) in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2012. The sequence of a mitochondrial marker, belonging to the ND5 gene, selected for the study was 1249 base pairs long and distinguished 75 unique haplotypes among 140 individuals that formed three main clades. There was no detectable pattern in the distribution of haplotypes by geographic distance or over time. Interestingly, a Bayesian skyline plot suggested that a 1000-fold increase in population size occurred approximately 10,000 years before present, suggesting a species expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum.GAME from the National Science Centre, the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education Iuventus Plus [IP2014 050573]; FCT-PT [CCMAR/Multi/04326/2013]; [2011/03/B/NZ8/02876

Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.status: publishe