Interaction of Climate Change with Effects of Conspecific and Heterospecific Density on Reproduction

We studied the relationship between temperature and the coexistence of great titParus majorand blue titCyanistes caeruleus, breeding in 75 study plots across Europe and North Africa. We expected an advance in laying date and a reduction in clutch size during warmer springs as a general response to climate warming and a delay in laying date and a reduction in clutch size during warmer winters due to density-dependent effects. As expected, as spring temperature increases laying date advances and as winter temperature increases clutch size is reduced in both species. Density of great tit affected the relationship between winter temperature and laying date in great and blue tit. Specifically, as density of great tit increased and temperature in winter increased both species started to reproduce later. Density of blue tit affected the relationship between spring temperature and blue and great tit laying date. Thus, both species start to reproduce earlier with increasing spring temperature as density of blue tit increases, which was not an expected outcome, since we expected that increasing spring temperature should advance laying date, while increasing density should delay it cancelling each other out. Climate warming and its interaction with density affects clutch size of great tits but not of blue tits. As predicted, great tit clutch size is reduced more with density of blue tits as temperature in winter increases. The relationship between spring temperature and density on clutch size of great tits depends on whether the increase is in density of great tit or blue tit. Therefore, an increase in temperature negatively affected the coexistence of blue and great tits differently in both species. Thus, blue tit clutch size was unaffected by the interaction effect of density with temperature, while great tit clutch size was affected in multiple ways by these interactions terms.Institute of Biology of Karelian Research Centre 0218-2019-0080Academy of Finland 265859Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CGL-2016-79568-C3-3-

Forecasting with Big Data: A Review

Big Data is a revolutionary phenomenon which is one of the most frequently discussed topics in the modern age, and is expected to remain so in the foreseeable future. In this paper we present a comprehensive review on the use of Big Data for forecasting by identifying and reviewing the problems, potential, challenges and most importantly the related applications. Skills, hardware and software, algorithm architecture, statistical significance, the signal to noise ratio and the nature of Big Data itself are identified as the major challenges which are hindering the process of obtaining meaningful forecasts from Big Data. The review finds that at present, the fields of Economics, Energy and Population Dynamics have been the major exploiters of Big Data forecasting whilst Factor models, Bayesian models and Neural Networks are the most common tools adopted for forecasting with Big Data

Avian Feathers as Bioindicators of the Exposure to Heavy Metal Contamination of Food

The aim of this study was to determine the possibility of using feathers of blue tit nestlings to assess the level of endogenous accumulation of lead. For this purpose we conducted an experiment with lead application to randomly chosen nestlings from eight randomly drawn broods. Five days after the exposure, feathers of lead-treated nestlings had significantly higher lead concentrations than control nestlings. This result suggests that feathers can be used as reliable non-destructive bioindicators to assess the level of heavy metals originating from contaminated food, which is of great significance for comparative studies on ecological consequences of pollution

Use of anthropogenic material affects bird nest arthropod community structure: influence of urbanisation, and consequences for ectoparasites and fledging success

Nests are a critically important factor in determining the breeding success of many species of birds. Nevertheless, we have surprisingly little understanding of how local environment helps shape materials used in construction, how this differs among related species using similar nest sites, or if materials used directly or indirectly influence the numbers of offspring successfully reared. We also have little understanding of any potential links between nest construction and the assemblage of invertebrates which inhabit the nest and in particular, with ectoparasites. We addressed these questions by monitoring the success rates of nest-box using Blue Tits Cyanistes caeruleus and Great Tits Parus major, from rural, urban greenspace and urban garden settings. We collected used nests, identified arthropods present, and measured the proportions of highly processed anthropogenic materials used in their construction. Some 25% of Great Tit nest materials were of an anthropogenic source and this was consistent across habitats, while Blue Tits used little (1-2%) except in gardens (~16%), suggesting that Great Tits preferentially sought out these materials. In fledged nests, increasing use of anthropogenic material was associated with lower general arthropod diversity and ectoparasite predator abundance (Blue Tits only) but higher levels of Siphonapterans (fleas). Higher arthropod diversity was associated with lower flea numbers, suggesting that increased diversity played a role in limiting flea numbers. No direct link was found between breeding success and either anthropogenic material usage, or arthropod diversity and abundance. However, breeding success declined with increasing urbanisation in both species and increased with nest weight in Blue Tits. The interplay between urbanisation and bird ecology is complex; our work shows that subtle anthropogenic influences may have indirect and unexpected consequences for urban birds

Little evidence for a selective advantage of armour-reduced threespined stickleback individuals in an invertebrate predation experiment

The repeated colonization of freshwater habitats by the ancestrally marine threespined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus has been associated with many instances of parallel reduction in armour traits, most notably number of lateral plates. The change in predation regime from marine systems, dominated by gape-limited predators such as piscivorous fishes, to freshwater habitats where grappling invertebrate predators such as insect larvae can dominate the predation regime, has been hypothesized as a driving force. Here we experimentally test the hypothesis that stickleback with reduced armour possess a selective advantage in the face of predation by invertebrates, using a natural population of stickleback that is highly polymorphic for armour traits and a common invertebrate predator from the same location. Our results provide no compelling evidence for selection in this particular predator–prey interaction. We suggest that the postulated selective advantage of low armour in the face of invertebrate predation may not be universal

Elevated temperatures drive the evolution of armour loss in the threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus

1. While there is evidence of genetic and phenotypic responses to climate change, few studies have demonstrated change in functional traits with a known genetic basis. 2. Here we present evidence for an evolutionary adaptive response to elevated temperatures in freshwater populations of the threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus. 3. Using a unique set of historical data and museum specimens, in combination with contemporary samples, we fitted a Bayesian spatial model to identify a population-level decline in the number of lateral bony plates, comprising anti-predator armour, in multiple populations of sticklebacks over the last 91 years in Poland. 4. Armor loss was predicted by elevated temperatures and is proposed to be a correlated response to selection for reduced body size. 5. This study demonstrates a change in a functional trait of known genetic basis in response to elevated temperature, and illustrates the utility of the threespine stickleback as a model for measuring the evolutionary and ecological impacts of environmental change across the northern hemisphere

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to repro- ductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young