A Model for the Analysis of Caries Occurrence in Primary Molar Tooth Surfaces

Recently methods of caries quantification in the primary dentition have moved away from summary ‘whole mouth’ measures at the individual level to methods based on generalised linear modelling (GLM) approaches or survival analysis approaches. However, GLM approaches based on logistic transformation fail to take into account the time-dependent process of tooth/surface survival to caries. There may also be practical difficulties associated with casting parametric survival-based approaches in a complex multilevel hierarchy and the selection of an optimal survival distribution, while non-parametric survival methods are not generally suitable for the assessment of supplementary information recorded on study participants. In the current investigation, a hybrid semi-parametric approach comprising elements of survival-based and GLM methodologies suitable for modelling of caries occurrence within fixed time periods is assessed, using an illustrative multilevel data set of caries occurrence in primary molars from a cohort study, with clustering of data assumed to occur at surface and tooth levels. Inferences of parameter significance were found to be consistent with previous parametric survival-based analyses of the same data set, with gender, socio-economic status, fluoridation status, tooth location, surface type and fluoridation status-surface type interaction significantly associated with caries occurrence. The appropriateness of the hierarchical structure facilitated by the hybrid approach was also confirmed. Hence the hybrid approach is proposed as a more appropriate alternative to primary caries modelling than non-parametric survival methods or other GLM-based models, and as a practical alternative to more rigorous survival-based methods unlikely to be fully accessible to most researchers

Large Deviation Approach to the Randomly Forced Navier-Stokes Equation

The random forced Navier-Stokes equation can be obtained as a variational problem of a proper action. By virtue of incompressibility, the integration over transverse components of the fields allows to cast the action in the form of a large deviation functional. Since the hydrodynamic operator is nonlinear, the functional integral yielding the statistics of fluctuations can be practically computed by linearizing around a physical solution of the hydrodynamic equation. We show that this procedure yields the dimensional scaling predicted by K41 theory at the lowest perturbative order, where the perturbation parameter is the inverse Reynolds number. Moreover, an explicit expression of the prefactor of the scaling law is obtained.Comment: 24 page

Effects of habitat and livestock on nest productivity of the Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii in Bukhara Province, Uzbekistan

To inform population support measures for the unsustainably hunted Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii (IUCN Vulnerable) we examined potential habitat and land-use effects on nest productivity in the Kyzylkum Desert, Uzbekistan. We monitored 177 nests across different semi-arid shrub assemblages (clay-sand and salinity gradients) and a range of livestock densities (0–80 km-2). Nest success (mean 51.4%, 95% CI 42.4–60.4%) was similar across four years; predation caused 85% of those failures for which the cause was known, and only three nests were trampled by livestock. Nesting begins within a few weeks of arrival when food appears scarce, but later nests were more likely to fail owing to the emergence of a key predator, suggesting foraging conditions on wintering and passage sites may be important for nest productivity. Nest success was similar across three shrub assemblages and was unrelated to landscape rugosity, shrub frequency or livestock density, but was greater with taller mean shrub height (range 13–67 cm) within 50 m. Clutch size (mean = 3.2 eggs) and per-egg hatchability in successful nests (87.5%) did not differ with laying date, shrub assemblage or livestock density. We therefore found no evidence that livestock density reduced nest productivity across the range examined, while differing shrub assemblages appeared to offer similar habitat quality. Asian houbara appear well-adapted to a range of semi-desert habitats and tolerate moderate disturbance by pastoralism. No obvious in situ mitigation measures arise from these findings, leaving regulation and control as the key requirement to render hunting sustainable

Myosin-I nomenclature.

We suggest that the vertebrate myosin-I field adopt a common nomenclature system based on the names adopted by the Human Genome Organization (HUGO). At present, the myosin-I nomenclature is very confusing; not only are several systems in use, but several different genes have been given the same name. Despite their faults, we believe that the names adopted by the HUGO nomenclature group for genome annotation are the best compromise, and we recommend universal adoption

On the trace of the antipode and higher indicators

We introduce two kinds of gauge invariants for any finite-dimensional Hopf algebra H. When H is semisimple over C, these invariants are respectively, the trace of the map induced by the antipode on the endomorphism ring of a self-dual simple module, and the higher Frobenius-Schur indicators of the regular representation. We further study the values of these higher indicators in the context of complex semisimple quasi-Hopf algebras H. We prove that these indicators are non-negative provided the module category over H is modular, and that for a prime p, the p-th indicator is equal to 1 if, and only if, p is a factor of dim H. As an application, we show the existence of a non-trivial self-dual simple H-module with bounded dimension which is determined by the value of the second indicator.Comment: additional references, fixed some typos, minor additions including a questions and some remark

Water from abandoned mines as a heat source: practical experiences of open- and closed-loop strategies, United Kingdom

Pilot heat pump systems have been installed at two former collieries in Yorkshire/Derbyshire, England, to extract heat from mine water. The installations represent three fundamental configurations of heat exchanger. At Caphouse Colliery, mine water is pumped through a heat exchanger coupled to a heat pump and then discharged to waste (an open-loop heat exchange system). The system performs with high thermal efficiency, but the drawbacks are: (1) it can only be operated when mine water is being actively pumped from the colliery shaft for the purposes of regional water-level management, and (2) the fact that the water is partially oxygenated means that iron oxyhydroxide precipitation occurs, necessitating regular removal of filters for cleaning. At Markham Colliery, near Bolsover, a small amount of mine water is pumped from depth in a flooded shaft, circulated through a heat exchanger coupled to a heat pump and then returned to the same mine shaft at a slightly different depth (a standing column arrangement). This system’s fundamental thermal efficiency is negatively impacted by the electrical power required to run the shaft submersible pump, but clogging issues are not significant. In the third system, at Caphouse, a heat exchanger is submerged in a mine water treatment pond (a closed-loop system). This can be run at any time, irrespective of mine pumping regime, and being a closed-loop system, is not susceptible to clogging issues

Measuring and explaining the willingness to pay for forest conservation: evidence from a survey experiment in Brazil

Recent research suggests that there is substantial public support (including willingness to pay) for forest conservation. Based on a nationwide survey experiment in Brazil (N = 2500) the largest and richest of the world's tropical developing countries, we shed new light on this issue. To what extent does the public in fact support forest conservation and what factors are influencing support levels? Unlike previous studies, our results show that the willingness to pay for tropical forest conservation in Brazil is rather low. Moreover, framing forest conservation in terms of biodiversity protection, which tends to create more local benefits, does not induce more support than framing conservation in terms of mitigating global climate change. The results also show that low levels of trust in public institutions have a strong negative impact on the public's willingness to pay for forest conservation, individually and/or via government spending. What could other (richer) countries do, in this context, to encourage forest conservation in Brazil and other tropical developing countries? One key issue is whether prospects of foreign funding for forest conservation are likely to crowd out or, conversely, enhance the motivation for domestic level conservation efforts. We find that prospects of foreign funding have no significant effect on willingness to pay for forest conservation. These findings have at least three policy implications, namely, that the Brazilian public's willingness to pay for forest conservation is very limited, that large-scale international funding is probably needed, and that such funding is unlikely to encourage more domestic effort, but is also unlikely to crowd out domestic efforts. Restoring public trust in the Brazilian government is key to increasing public support for forest conservation in Brazil

The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

A new primary dental care service compared with standard care for child and family to reduce the re-occurrence of childhood dental caries (Dental RECUR): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: In England and Scotland, dental extraction is the single highest cause of planned admission to the hospital for children under 11 years. Traditional dental services have had limited success in reducing this disease burden. Interventions based on motivational interviewing have been shown to impact positively dental health behaviours and could facilitate the prevention of re-occurrence of dental caries in this high-risk population. The objective of the study is to evaluate whether a new, dental nurse-led service, delivered using a brief negotiated interview based on motivational interviewing, is a more cost-effective service than treatment as usual, in reducing the re-occurrence of dental decay in young children with previous dental extractions. Methods/Design: This 2-year, two-arm, multicentre, randomised controlled trial will include 224 child participants, initially aged 5 to 7 years, who are scheduled to have one or more primary teeth extracted for dental caries under general anaesthesia (GA), relative analgesia (RA: inhalation sedation) or local anaesthesia (LA). The trial will be conducted in University Dental Hospitals, Secondary Care Centres or other providers of dental extraction services across the United Kingdom. The intervention will include a brief negotiated interview (based on the principles of motivational interviewing) delivered between enrolment and 6 weeks post-extraction, followed by directed prevention in primary dental care. Participants will be followed up for 2 years. The main outcome measure will be the dental caries experienced by 2 years post-enrolment at the level of dentine involvement on any tooth in either dentition, which had been caries-free at the baseline assessment. Discussion: The participants are a hard-to-reach group in which secondary prevention is a challenge. Lack of engagement with dental care makes the children and their families scheduled for extraction particularly difficult to recruit to an RCT. Variations in service delivery between sites have also added to the challenges in implementing the Dental RECUR protocol during the recruitment phase. Trial registration: ISRCTN24958829 (date of registration: 27 September 2013), Current protocol version: 5.0

Evaluation of sesamum gum as an excipient in matrix tablets

In developing countries modern medicines are often beyond the affordability of the majority of the population. This is due to the reliance on expensive imported raw materials despite the abundance of natural resources which could provide an equivalent or even an improved function. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential of sesamum gum (SG) extracted from the leaves of Sesamum radiatum (readily cultivated in sub-Saharan Africa) as a matrix former. Directly compressed matrix tablets were prepared from the extract and compared with similar matrices of HPMC (K4M) using theophylline as a model water soluble drug. The compaction, swelling, erosion and drug release from the matrices were studied in deionized water, 0.1 N HCl (pH 1.2) and phosphate buffer (pH 6.8) using USP apparatus II. The data from the swelling, erosion and drug release studies were also fitted into the respective mathematical models. Results showed that the matrices underwent a combination of swelling and erosion, with the swelling action being controlled by the rate of hydration in the medium. SG also controlled the release of theophylline similar to the HPMC and therefore may have use as an alternative excipient in regions where Sesamum radiatum can be easily cultivated