Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network

The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be $20 to$30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance

Elevated extinction rates as a trigger for diversification rate shifts: early amniotes as a case study

Tree shape analyses are frequently used to infer the location of shifts in diversification rate within the Tree of Life. Many studies have supported a causal relationship between shifts and temporally coincident events such as the evolution of “key innovations”. However, the evidence for such relationships is circumstantial. We investigated patterns of diversification during the early evolution of Amniota from the Carboniferous to the Triassic, subjecting a new supertree to analyses of tree balance in order to infer the timing and location of diversification shifts. We investigated how uneven origination and extinction rates drive diversification shifts, and use two case studies (herbivory and an aquatic lifestyle) to examine whether shifts tend to be contemporaneous with evolutionary novelties. Shifts within amniotes tend to occur during periods of elevated extinction, with mass extinctions coinciding with numerous and larger shifts. Diversification shifts occurring in clades that possess evolutionary innovations do not coincide temporally with the appearance of those innovations, but are instead deferred to periods of high extinction rate. We suggest such innovations did not cause increases in the rate of cladogenesis, but allowed clades to survive extinction events. We highlight the importance of examining general patterns of diversification before interpreting specific shifts

Phenotypic and Transcriptomic Response of Auxotrophic Mycobacterium avium Subsp. paratuberculosis leuD Mutant under Environmental Stress

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) is the causative agent of severe gastroenteritis in cattle. To gain a better understanding of MAP virulence, we investigated the role of leuD gene in MAP metabolism and stress response. For this, we have constructed an auxotrophic strain of MAP by deleting the leuD gene using allelic exchange. The wildtype and mutant strains were then compared for metabolic phenotypic changes using Biolog phenotype microarrays. The responses of both strains to physiologically relevant stress conditions were assessed using DNA microarrays. Transcriptomic data was then analyzed in the context of cellular metabolic pathways and gene networks. Our results showed that deletion of leuD gene has a global effect on both MAP phenotypic and transcriptome response. At the metabolic level, the mutant strain lost the ability to utilize most of the carbon, nitrogen, sulphur, phosphorus and nutrient supplements as energy source. At the transcriptome level, more than 100 genes were differentially expressed in each of the stress condition tested. Systems level network analysis revealed that the differentially expressed genes were distributed throughout the gene network, thus explaining the global impact of leuD deletion in metabolic phenotype. Further, we find that leuD deletion impacted metabolic pathways associated with fatty acids. We verified this by experimentally estimating the total fatty acid content of both mutant and wildtype. The mutant strain had 30% less fatty acid content when compared to wildtype, thus supporting the results from transcriptional and computational analyses. Our results therefore reveal the intricate connection between the metabolism and virulence in MAP

Capturing Ecosystem Services, Stakeholders' Preferences and Trade-Offs in Coastal Aquaculture Decisions : A Bayesian Belief Network Application

Aquaculture activities are embedded in complex social-ecological systems. However, aquaculture development decisions have tended to be driven by revenue generation, failing to account for interactions with the environment and the full value of the benefits derived from services provided by local ecosystems. Trade-offs resulting from changes in ecosystem services provision and associated impacts on livelihoods are also often overlooked. This paper proposes an innovative application of Bayesian belief networks - influence diagrams - as a decision support system for mediating trade-offs arising from the development of shrimp aquaculture in Thailand. Senior experts were consulted (n = 12) and primary farm data on the economics of shrimp farming (n = 20) were collected alongside secondary information on ecosystem services, in order to construct and populate the network. Trade-offs were quantitatively assessed through the generation of a probabilistic impact matrix. This matrix captures nonlinearity and uncertainty and describes the relative performance and impacts of shrimp farming management scenarios on local livelihoods. It also incorporates export revenues and provision and value of ecosystem services such as coastal protection and biodiversity. This research shows that Bayesian belief modeling can support complex decision-making on pathways for sustainable coastal aquaculture development and thus contributes to the debate on the role of aquaculture in social-ecological resilience and economic development

Test of lepton universality in b→sℓ+ℓ−b \rightarrow s \ell^+ \ell^- decays

The first simultaneous test of muon-electron universality using $B^{+}\rightarrow K^{+}\ell^{+}\ell^{-}$ and $B^{0}\rightarrow K^{*0}\ell^{+}\ell^{-}$ decays is performed, in two ranges of the dilepton invariant-mass squared, $q^{2}$. The analysis uses beauty mesons produced in proton-proton collisions collected with the LHCb detector between 2011 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 $\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$. Each of the four lepton universality measurements reported is either the first in the given $q^{2}$ interval or supersedes previous LHCb measurements. The results are compatible with the predictions of the Standard Model.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-046.html (LHCb public pages

Precision measurement of CP\it{CP} violation in the penguin-mediated decay Bs0→ϕϕB_s^{0}\rightarrow\phi\phi

A flavor-tagged time-dependent angular analysis of the decay $B_s^{0}\rightarrow\phi\phi$ is performed using $pp$ collision data collected by the LHCb experiment at % at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV, the center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 6 fb^{-1}. The $\it{CP}$-violating phase and direct $\it{CP}$-violation parameter are measured to be $\phi_{s\bar{s}s} = -0.042 \pm 0.075 \pm 0.009$ rad and $|\lambda|=1.004\pm 0.030 \pm 0.009$, respectively, assuming the same values for all polarization states of the $\phi\phi$ system. In these results, the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. These parameters are also determined separately for each polarization state, showing no evidence for polarization dependence. The results are combined with previous LHCb measurements using $pp$ collisions at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, yielding $\phi_{s\bar{s}s} = -0.074 \pm 0.069$ rad and $|lambda|=1.009 \pm 0.030$. This is the most precise study of time-dependent $\it{CP}$ violation in a penguin-dominated $B$ meson decay. The results are consistent with $\it{CP}$ symmetry and with the Standard Model predictions.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2023-001.html (LHCb public pages

Observation of Two New Excited Ξb0 States Decaying to Λb0 K-π+

Two narrow resonant states are observed in the Λb0K-π+ mass spectrum using a data sample of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected by the LHCb experiment and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 6 fb-1. The minimal quark content of the Λb0K-π+ system indicates that these are excited Ξb0 baryons. The masses of the Ξb(6327)0 and Ξb(6333)0 states are m[Ξb(6327)0]=6327.28-0.21+0.23±0.12±0.24 and m[Ξb(6333)0]=6332.69-0.18+0.17±0.03±0.22 MeV, respectively, with a mass splitting of Δm=5.41-0.27+0.26±0.12 MeV, where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic, and due to the Λb0 mass measurement. The measured natural widths of these states are consistent with zero, with upper limits of Γ[Ξb(6327)0]<2.20(2.56) and Γ[Ξb(6333)0]<1.60(1.92) MeV at a 90% (95%) credibility level. The significance of the two-peak hypothesis is larger than nine (five) Gaussian standard deviations compared to the no-peak (one-peak) hypothesis. The masses, widths, and resonant structure of the new states are in good agreement with the expectations for a doublet of 1D Ξb0 resonances