Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts

In recent years several methodologies have been developed to combine and interpret ensembles of climate models with the aim of quantifying uncertainties in climate projections. Constrained climate model forecasts have been generated by combining various choices of metrics used to weight individual ensemble members, with diverse approaches to sampling the ensemble. The forecasts obtained are often significantly different, even when based on the same model output. Therefore, a climate model forecast classification system can serve two roles: to provide a way for forecast producers to self-classify their forecasts; and to provide information on the methodological assumptions underlying the forecast generation and its uncertainty when forecasts are used for impacts studies. In this review we propose a possible classification system based on choices of metrics and sampling strategies. We illustrate the impact of some of the possible choices in the uncertainty quantification of large scale projections of temperature and precipitation changes, and briefly discuss possible connections between climate forecast uncertainty quantification and decision making approaches in the climate change context

Segregation of Fluorescent Membrane Lipids into Distinct Micrometric Domains: Evidence for Phase Compartmentation of Natural Lipids?

Background: We recently reported that sphingomyelin (SM) analogs substituted on the alkyl chain by various fluorophores (e.g. BODIPY) readily inserted at trace levels into the plasma membrane of living erythrocytes or CHO cells and spontaneously concentrated into micrometric domains. Despite sharing the same fluorescent ceramide backbone, BODIPY-SM domains segregated from similar domains labelled by BODIPY-D-e-lactosylceramide (D-e-LacCer) and depended on endogenous SM. Methodology/Principal Findings. We show here that BODIPY-SM further differed from BODIPY-D-e-LacCer or -glucosylceramide (GlcCer) domains in temperature dependence, propensity to excimer formation, association with a glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored fluorescent protein reporter, and lateral diffusion by FRAP, thus demonstrating different lipid phases and boundaries. Whereas BODIPY-D-e-LacCer behaved like BODIPY-GlcCer, its artificial stereoisomer, BODIPY-L-t-LacCer, behaved like BODIPY- and NBD-phosphatidylcholine (PC). Surprisingly, these two PC analogs also formed micrometric patches yet preferably at low temperature, did not show excimer, never associated with the GPI reporter and showed major restriction to lateral diffusion when photobleached in large fields. This functional comparison supported a three-phase micrometric compartmentation, of decreasing order: BODIPY-GSLs > -SM > -PC (or artificial L-t-LacCer). Co-existence of three segregated compartments was further supported by double labelling experiments and was confirmed by additive occupancy, up to ~70% cell surface coverage. Specific alterations of BODIPY-analogs domains by manipulation of corresponding endogenous sphingolipids suggested that distinct fluorescent lipid partition might reflect differential intrinsic propensity of endogenous membrane lipids to form large assemblies. Conclusions/Significance. We conclude that fluorescent membrane lipids spontaneously concentrate into distinct micrometric assemblies. We hypothesize that these might reflect preexisting compartmentation of endogenous PM lipids into non-overlapping domains of differential order: GSLs > SM > PC, resulting into differential self-adhesion of the two former, with exclusion of the latter

A Social Identity Approach to Sport Psychology: Principles, Practice, and Prospects.

Drawing on social identity theory and self-categorization theory, we outline an approach to sport psychology that understands groups not simply as features of sporting contexts but rather as elements that can be, and often are, incorporated into a person's sense of self and, through this, become powerful determinants of their sport-related behavior. The underpinnings of this social identity approach are outlined, and four key lessons for sport that are indicative of the analytical and practical power of the approach are presented. These suggest that social identity is the basis for sports group (1) behavior, (2) formation and development, (3) support and stress appraisal, and (4) leadership. Building on recent developments within sport science, we outline an agenda for future research by identifying a range of topics to which the social identity approach could fruitfully contribute

Calf health from birth to weaning. I. General aspects of disease prevention

Calfhood diseases have a major impact on the economic viability of cattle operations. This is the first in a three part review series on calf health from birth to weaning, focusing on preventive measures. The review considers both pre- and periparturient management factors influencing calf health, colostrum management in beef and dairy calves and further nutrition and weaning in dairy calves

Subnormal vitamin B12 concentrations and anaemia in older people: a systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pernicious anaemia is undeniably associated with vitamin B12 deficiency, but the association between subnormal vitamin B12 concentrations and anaemia in older people is unclear. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the association between subnormal vitamin B12 concentrations and anaemia in older people.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Clinical queries for aetiology and treatment in bibliographic databases (PubMed [01/1949-10/2009]; EMBASE [01/1980-10/2009]) were used. Reference lists were checked for additional relevant studies. Observational studies (≥50 participants) and randomized placebo-controlled intervention trials (RCTs) were considered.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>25 studies met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-one observational cross-sectional studies (total number of participants n = 16185) showed inconsistent results. In one longitudinal observational study, low vitamin B12 concentrations were not associated with an increased risk of anaemia (total n = 423). The 3 RCTs (total n = 210) were well-designed and showed no effect of vitamin B12 supplementation on haemoglobin concentrations during follow-up in subjects with subnormal vitamin B12 concentrations at the start of the study. Due to large clinical and methodological heterogeneity, statistical pooling of data was not performed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Evidence of a positive association between a subnormal serum vitamin B12 concentration and anaemia in older people is limited and inconclusive. Further well-designed studies are needed to determine whether subnormal vitamin B12 is a risk factor for anaemia in older people.</p

Genome-wide association trans-ethnic meta-analyses identifies novel associations regulating coagulation Factor VIII and von Willebrand Factor plasma levels

BACKGROUND: Factor VIII (FVIII) and its carrier protein von Willebrand factor (VWF) are associated with risk of arterial and venous thrombosis and with hemorrhagic disorders. We aimed to identify and functionally test novel genetic associations regulating plasma FVIII and VWF. METHODS: We meta-analyzed genome-wide association results from 46 354 individuals of European, African, East Asian, and Hispanic ancestry. All studies performed linear regression analysis using an additive genetic model and associated ≈35 million imputed variants with natural log-transformed phenotype levels. In vitro gene silencing in cultured endothelial cells was performed for candidate genes to provide additional evidence on association and function. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses were applied to test the causal role of FVIII and VWF plasma levels on the risk of arterial and venous thrombotic events. RESULTS: We identified 13 novel genome-wide significant ( P≤2.5×10-8) associations, 7 with FVIII levels ( FCHO2/TMEM171/TNPO1, HLA, SOX17/RP1, LINC00583/NFIB, RAB5C-KAT2A, RPL3/TAB1/SYNGR1, and ARSA) and 11 with VWF levels ( PDHB/PXK/KCTD6, SLC39A8, FCHO2/TMEM171/TNPO1, HLA, GIMAP7/GIMAP4, OR13C5/NIPSNAP, DAB2IP, C2CD4B, RAB5C-KAT2A, TAB1/SYNGR1, and ARSA), beyond 10 previously reported associations with these phenotypes. Functional validation provided further evidence of association for all loci on VWF except ARSA and DAB2IP. Mendelian randomization suggested causal effects of plasma FVIII activity levels on venous thrombosis and coronary artery disease risk and plasma VWF levels on ischemic stroke risk. CONCLUSIONS: The meta-analysis identified 13 novel genetic loci regulating FVIII and VWF plasma levels, 10 of which we validated functionally. We provide some evidence for a causal role of these proteins in thrombotic events

Genome-wide analyses identify a role for SLC17A4 and AADAT in thyroid hormone regulation

Thyroid dysfunction is an important public health problem, which affects 10% of the general population and increases the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Many aspects of thyroid hormone regulation have only partly been elucidated, including its transport, metabolism, and genetic determinants. Here we report a large meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for thyroid function and dysfunction, testing 8 million genetic variants in up to 72,167 individuals. One-hundred-and-nine independent genetic variants are associated with these traits. A genetic risk score, calculated to assess their combined effects on clinical end points, shows significant associations with increased risk of both overt (Graves' disease) and subclinical thyroid disease, as well as clinical complications. By functional follow-up on selected signals, we identify a novel thyroid hormone transporter (SLC17A4) and a metabolizing enzyme (AADAT). Together, these results provide new knowledge about thyroid hormone physiology and disease, opening new possibilities for therapeutic targets

Genome-wide association and Mendelian randomisation analysis provide insights into the pathogenesis of heart failure

Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have yielded only limited insights, leaving the observed heritability of HF largely unexplained. We report results from a GWAS meta-analysis of HF comprising 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. Twelve independent variants at 11 genomic loci are associated with HF, all of which demonstrate one or more associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, or reduced left ventricular function, suggesting shared genetic aetiology. Functional analysis of non-CAD-associated loci implicate genes involved in cardiac development (MYOZ1, SYNPO2L), protein homoeostasis (BAG3), and cellular senescence (CDKN1A). Mendelian randomisation analysis supports causal roles for several HF risk factors, and demonstrates CAD-independent effects for atrial fibrillation, body mass index, and hypertension. These findings extend our knowledge of the pathways underlying HF and may inform new therapeutic strategies