Deception in context: coding nonverbal cues, situational variables and risk of detection

There are many situations in which deception may arise and understanding the behaviors associated with it are compounded by various contexts in which it may occur. This paper sets out a coding protocol for identifying cues to deception and reports on three studies, in which deception was studied in different contexts. The contexts involved manipulating risks (i.e., probability) of being detected and reconnaissance, both of which are related to terrorist activities. Two of the studies examined the impact of changing the risks of deception detection, whilst the third investigated increased cognitive demand of duplex deception tasks including reconnaissance and deception. In all three studies, cues to deception were analyzed in relation to observable body movements and subjective impressions given by participants. In general, the results indicate a pattern of hand movement reduction by deceivers, and suggest the notion that raising the risk of detection influences deceivers? behaviors. Participants in the higher risk condition displayed increased negative affect (found in deceivers) and tension (found in both deceivers and truth-tellers) than those in lower risk conditions

Personnes Vivant avec le VIH prises en charge en hospitalisation en zone décentralisée au Sénégal, exemple de la ville de Thiès

Objectifs : Notre étude avait pour objectif de décrire les caractéristiques sociodémographiques, cliniques, paracliniques, thérapeutiques et évolutives des PVVIH hospitalisées à l’hôpital régional de Thiès. Patients et méthode : Il s’agit d’une étude rétrospective descriptive à partir des dossiers de PVVIH hospitalisées à l’hôpital régional de Thiès du 1er janvier 2010 au 31 décembre 2015. Les données ont été saisies puis analysées grâce au logiciel Epi info 3.5.4. Résultats : Nous avons colligé 101patients VIH positif. Le sex ratio M/F était de 0,56 et l’âge moyen des malades de 43 ans ± 10,5 ans avec des extrêmes de 15 et 78 ans. La quasi-totalité de nos malades résidaient dans la région de Thiès (82,3%). Dans la majorité des cas, le statut sérologique des patients était connu avant l’hospitalisation (78,2%) et 71,9% des patients étaient en état d’immunodépression sévère (taux de CD4<200/mm3). Un peu plus de la moitié soit 53,5% étaient déjà sous TARV avant leur admission. Les principaux motifs d’hospitalisation étaient représentés par les infections opportunistes principalement la tuberculose qui est la première étiologie retrouvée, mais aussi la première cause de décès. Parmi les autres étiologies, on retrouve la toxoplasmose cérébrale (9 cas), la candidose (3 cas). Une dénutrition modérée à grave était retrouvée dans plus de 50% des cas. La durée moyenne d’hospitalisation était de 15 jours ± 9 jours, dont près des deux tiers des patients (60,3%) de moins de 15 jours. Le TARV a été initié en cours d’hospitalisation chez 35 patients. Le protocole de TARV a été changé chez 11 patients et maintenu chez 41 d’entre eux. Le taux de guérison était de 46% et la létalité était de 37%.Conclusion : comme partout ailleurs les PvVIH présentent le même profil épidémiologique, clinique et évolutif à Thiès que dans les autres régions du Sénégal et de l’Afrique de l’Ouest. La prise en charge nécessite un plateau technique de qualité permettant le diagnostic et le traitement des principales infections opportunistes, mais aussi la formation continue du personnel soignant et l’application sur le terrain des recommandations du programme national de lutte contre le VIH-SIDA

The geography of recent genetic ancestry across Europe

The recent genealogical history of human populations is a complex mosaic formed by individual migration, large-scale population movements, and other demographic events. Population genomics datasets can provide a window into this recent history, as rare traces of recent shared genetic ancestry are detectable due to long segments of shared genomic material. We make use of genomic data for 2,257 Europeans (the POPRES dataset) to conduct one of the first surveys of recent genealogical ancestry over the past three thousand years at a continental scale. We detected 1.9 million shared genomic segments, and used the lengths of these to infer the distribution of shared ancestors across time and geography. We find that a pair of modern Europeans living in neighboring populations share around 10-50 genetic common ancestors from the last 1500 years, and upwards of 500 genetic ancestors from the previous 1000 years. These numbers drop off exponentially with geographic distance, but since genetic ancestry is rare, individuals from opposite ends of Europe are still expected to share millions of common genealogical ancestors over the last 1000 years. There is substantial regional variation in the number of shared genetic ancestors: especially high numbers of common ancestors between many eastern populations likely date to the Slavic and/or Hunnic expansions, while much lower levels of common ancestry in the Italian and Iberian peninsulas may indicate weaker demographic effects of Germanic expansions into these areas and/or more stably structured populations. Recent shared ancestry in modern Europeans is ubiquitous, and clearly shows the impact of both small-scale migration and large historical events. Population genomic datasets have considerable power to uncover recent demographic history, and will allow a much fuller picture of the close genealogical kinship of individuals across the world.Comment: Full size figures available from http://www.eve.ucdavis.edu/~plralph/research.html; or html version at http://ralphlab.usc.edu/ibd/ibd-paper/ibd-writeup.xhtm

Inference of population splits and mixtures from genome-wide allele frequency data

Many aspects of the historical relationships between populations in a species are reflected in genetic data. Inferring these relationships from genetic data, however, remains a challenging task. In this paper, we present a statistical model for inferring the patterns of population splits and mixtures in multiple populations. In this model, the sampled populations in a species are related to their common ancestor through a graph of ancestral populations. Using genome-wide allele frequency data and a Gaussian approximation to genetic drift, we infer the structure of this graph. We applied this method to a set of 55 human populations and a set of 82 dog breeds and wild canids. In both species, we show that a simple bifurcating tree does not fully describe the data; in contrast, we infer many migration events. While some of the migration events that we find have been detected previously, many have not. For example, in the human data we infer that Cambodians trace approximately 16% of their ancestry to a population ancestral to other extant East Asian populations. In the dog data, we infer that both the boxer and basenji trace a considerable fraction of their ancestry (9% and 25%, respectively) to wolves subsequent to domestication, and that East Asian toy breeds (the Shih Tzu and the Pekingese) result from admixture between modern toy breeds and "ancient" Asian breeds. Software implementing the model described here, called TreeMix, is available at http://treemix.googlecode.comComment: 28 pages, 6 figures in main text. Attached supplement is 22 pages, 15 figures. This is an updated version of the preprint available at http://precedings.nature.com/documents/6956/version/

Genesis and development of an interfluvial peatland in the central Congo Basin since the Late Pleistocene

The central Congo Basin contains the largest known peatland complex in the tropics. Here we present a detailed multi-proxy record from a peat core, CEN-17.4, from the centre of a 45 km wide interfluvial peatland (Ekolongouma), the first record of its kind from the central Congo peatlands. We use pollen, charcoal, sedimentological and geochemical data to reconstruct the site's history from the late Pleistocene to the present day. Peat began accumulating at the centre of the peatland ∼19,600 cal BP (∼17,500–20,400 cal BP, 95% confidence interval), and between ∼9500 (9430–9535 cal BP) and 10,500 (10,310–10,660 cal BP) cal BP towards the margins. Pollen data from the peatland centre show that an initial grass- and sedge-dominated vegetation, which burned frequently, was replaced by a Manilkara-type dominated flooded forest at ∼12,640 cal BP, replaced in turn by a more mixed swamp forest at ∼9670 cal BP. Mixed swamp forest vegetation has persisted to the present day, with variations in composition and canopy openness likely caused at least in part by changes in palaeo-precipitation. Stable isotope data (δDn-C29-v&icecorr) indicate a large reduction in precipitation beginning ∼5000 and peaking ∼2000 cal BP, associated with the near-complete mineralization of several metres of previously accumulated peat and with a transition to a drier, more heliophilic swamp forest assemblage, likely with a more open canopy. Although the peatland and associated vegetation recovered from this perturbation, the strong response to this climatic event underlines the ecosystem's sensitivity to changes in precipitation. We find no conclusive evidence for anthropogenic activity in our record; charcoal is abundant only in the Pleistocene part of the record and may reflect natural rather than anthropogenic fires. We conclude that autogenic succession and variation in the amount and seasonality of precipitation have been the most important drivers of ecological change in this peatland since the late Pleistocene

Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Routine surveillance of disease notification data can enable the early detection of localised disease outbreaks. Although hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been recognised as an appropriate method to model disease surveillance data, they have been rarely applied in public health practice. We aimed to develop and evaluate a simple flexible HMM for disease surveillance which is suitable for use with sparse small area count data and requires little baseline data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Bayesian HMM was designed to monitor routinely collected notifiable disease data that are aggregated by residential postcode. Semi-synthetic data were used to evaluate the algorithm and compare outbreak detection performance with the established Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) algorithms and a negative binomial cusum.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Algorithm performance varied according to the desired false alarm rate for surveillance. At false alarm rates around 0.05, the cusum-based algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having similar sensitivity to the HMMs and a shorter average time to detection. At false alarm rates around 0.01, the HMM algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having higher sensitivity than the cusum-based Methods and a generally shorter time to detection for larger outbreaks. Overall, the 14-day HMM had a significantly greater area under the receiver operator characteristic curve than the EARS C3 and 7-day negative binomial cusum algorithms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that the HMM provides an effective method for the surveillance of sparse small area notifiable disease data at low false alarm rates. Further investigations are required to evaluation algorithm performance across other diseases and surveillance contexts.</p

Postdigital Dialogue

This article is a multi-authored experimental postdigital dialogue about postdigital dialogue. Fourteen authors were invited to produce their sections, followed by two author-reviewers who examined the article as a whole. Authors were invited to reflect on Petar Jandric’s book Learning in the age of digital reason (2017) or to produce completely new insights. The article also contains a summary of book symposium on Learning in the age of digital reason held at the 2017 American Educational Research Conference (AERA). The authors are tentatively confident that this article produces more knowledge than the arithmetic sum of its constituent parts. However, they are also very aware of its limits and insist that their conclusions are not consensual or homogenous. As traditional forms of research increasingly fail to describe our current reality, they present this article as an experiment and a possible starting point for developing new dialogical research approaches fit for our postdigital reality

Primordial Germ Cell Specification from Embryonic Stem Cells

Background: Primordial germ cell (PGC) specification is the first crucial step in germ line development. However, owing to significant challenges regarding the in vivo system, such as the complex cellular environment and potential problems with embryo manipulation, it is desirable to generate embryonic stem (ES) cells that are capable of overcoming these aforementioned limitations in order to provide a potential in vitro model to recapitulate the developmental processes in vivo. Methodology and Principal Findings: Here, we studied the detailed process of PGC specification from stella-GFP ES cells. We first observed the heterogeneous expression of stella in ES cells. However, neither Stella-positive ES cells nor Stellanegative ES cells shared a similar gene expression pattern with either PGCs or PGC precursors. Second, we derived PGCs from ES cells using two differentiation methods, namely the attachment culture technique and the embryoid body (EB) method. Compared with PGCs derived via the attachment culture technique, PGCs derived via the EB method that had undergone the sequential erasure of Peg3 followed by Igf2r resulted in a cell line in which the expression dynamics of T, Fgf8 and Sox17, in addition to the expression of the epiblast markers, were more similar to the in vivo expression, thus demonstrating that the process of PGC derivation was more faithfully recapitulated using the EB method. Furthermore, we developed an in vitro model of PGC specification in a completely chemically defined medium (CDM) that indicated that BMP4 and Wnt3a promoted PGC derivation, whereas BMP8b and activinA had no observable effect on PGC derivation

Evaluating Promotional Approaches for Citizen Science Biological Recording: Bumblebees as a Group Versus Harmonia axyridis as a Flagship for Ladybirds

Over the past decade, the number of biological records submitted by members of the public have increased dramatically. However, this may result in reduced record quality, depending on how species are promoted in the media. Here we examined the two main promotional approaches for citizen science recording schemes: flagship-species, using one charismatic species as an umbrella for the entire group (here, Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) for Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), and general-group, where the group is promoted as a whole and no particular prominence is given to any one species (here, bumblebees, genus Bombus (Hymenoptera: Apidae)). Of the two approaches, the general-group approach produced data that was not biased towards any one species, but far fewer records per year overall. In contrast, the flagship-species approach generated a much larger annual dataset, but heavily biased towards the flagship itself. Therefore, we recommend that the approach for species promotion is fitted to the result desired

Declines in violence and police arrest among female sex workers in Karnataka state, south India, following a comprehensive HIV prevention programme.

INTRODUCTION: Female sex workers (FSWs) frequently experience violence, harassment and arrest by the police or their clients, but there is little evidence as to the impact that such factors may have on HIV risk or whether community interventions could mitigate this impact. METHODS: As part of the evaluation of the Avahan programme in Karnataka, serial integrated behavioural and biological assessment (IBBA) surveys (four districts) (2005 to 2011) and anonymous polling booth surveys (PBS) (16 districts) (2007 to 2011) were conducted with random samples of FSWs. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess 1) changes in reported violence and arrests over time and 2) associations between violence by non-partners and police arrest and HIV/STI risk and prevalence. Mediation analysis was used to identify mediating factors. RESULTS: 5,792 FSWs participated in the IBBAs and 15,813 participated in the PBS. Over time, there were significant reductions in the percentages of FSWs reporting being raped in the past year (PBS) (30.0% in 2007, 10.0% in 2011, p<0.001), being arrested in the past year [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.57 (0.35, 0.93), p=0.025] and being beaten in the past six months by a non-partner (clients, police, pimps, strangers, rowdies) [AOR 0.69 (0.49, 0.95), p=0.024)] (IBBA). The proportion drinking alcohol (during the past week) also fell significantly (32.5% in 2005, 24.9% in 2008, 16.8% in 2011; p<0.001). Violence by non-partners (being raped in the past year and/or beaten in the past six months) and being arrested in the past year were both strongly associated with HIV infection [AOR 1.59 (1.18, 2.15), p=0.002; AOR 1.91 (1.17, 3.12), p=0.01, respectively]. They were also associated with drinking alcohol (during the past week) [AOR 1.98 (1.54, 2.53), p<0.001; AOR 2.79 (1.93, 4.04), p<0.001, respectively], reduced condom self-efficacy with clients [AOR 0.36 (0.27, 0.47), p<0.001; AOR 0.62 (0.39, 0.98), p=0.039, respectively], symptomatic STI (during the past year) [AOR 2.62 (2.07, 3.30), p<0.001; AOR 2.17 (1.51, 3.13), p<0.001, respectively], gonorrhoea infection [AOR 2.79 (1.51, 5.15), p=0.001; AOR 2.69 (0.96, 7.56), p=0.060, respectively] and syphilis infection [AOR 1.86 (1.04, 3.31), p=0.036; AOR 3.35 (1.78, 6.28), p<0.001, respectively], but not with exposure to peer education, community mobilization or HIV testing uptake. Mediation analysis suggests that alcohol use and STIs may partially mediate the association between violence or arrests and HIV prevalence. DISCUSSION: Violence by non-partners and arrest are both strongly associated with HIV infection among FSWs. Large-scale, comprehensive HIV prevention programming can reduce violence, arrests and HIV/STI infection among FSWs