Confidence regions for the multinomial parameter with small sample size

Consider the observation of n iid realizations of an experiment with d>1 possible outcomes, which corresponds to a single observation of a multinomial distribution M(n,p) where p is an unknown discrete distribution on {1,...,d}. In many applications, the construction of a confidence region for p when n is small is crucial. This concrete challenging problem has a long history. It is well known that the confidence regions built from asymptotic statistics do not have good coverage when n is small. On the other hand, most available methods providing non-asymptotic regions with controlled coverage are limited to the binomial case d=2. In the present work, we propose a new method valid for any d>1. This method provides confidence regions with controlled coverage and small volume, and consists of the inversion of the "covering collection"' associated with level-sets of the likelihood. The behavior when d/n tends to infinity remains an interesting open problem beyond the scope of this work.Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA

A cohort study of influences, health outcomes and costs of patients' health-seeking behaviour for minor ailments from primary and emergency care settings

To compare health-related and cost-related outcomes of consultations for symptoms suggestive of minor ailments in emergency departments (EDs), general practices and community pharmacies

An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity

We present novel analytical results about ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse grained neutral model based on birth-death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing both theoretical results of ecological neutral theory and empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. Neutral model of biodiversity deals with ecosystems in the same trophic level where per-capita vital rates are assumed to be species-independent. Close-form analytical solutions for neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results pertain: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the ecosystem both in transient and stationary states; the n-points connected time correlation function; and the survival probability, definned as the distribution of time-spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data from a estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model, with implications on biodiversity and conservation biology.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures. To appear in Journal of Statistichal Mechanic

Towards a Full Census of the Obscure(d) Vela Supercluster using MeerKAT

Recent spectroscopic observations of a few thousand partially obscured galaxies in the Vela constellation revealed a massive overdensity on supercluster scales straddling the Galactic Equator (l $\sim$ 272.5deg) at $cz \sim 18000$km/s. It remained unrecognised because it is located just beyond the boundaries and volumes of systematic whole-sky redshift and peculiar velocity surveys - and is obscured by the Milky Way. The structure lies close to the apex where residual bulkflows suggest considerable mass excess. The uncovered Vela Supercluster (VSCL) conforms of a confluence of merging walls, but its core remains uncharted. At the thickest foreground dust column densities (|b| < 6 deg) galaxies are not visible and optical spectroscopy is not effective. This precludes a reliable estimate of the mass of VSCL, hence its effect on the cosmic flow field and the peculiar velocity of the Local Group. Only systematic HI-surveys can bridge that gap. We have run simulations and will present early-science observing scenarios with MeerKAT 32 (M32) to complete the census of this dynamically and cosmologically relevant supercluster. M32 has been put forward because this pilot project will also serve as precursor project for HI MeerKAT Large Survey Projects, like Fornax and Laduma. Our calculations have shown that a survey area of the fully obscured part of the supercluster, where the two walls cross and the potential core of the supercluster resides, can be achieved on reasonable time-scales (200 hrs) with M32.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication, Proceedings of Science, workshop on "MeerKAT Science: On the Pathway to the SKA", held in Stellenbosch 25-27 May 201

Expression of RUNX1 correlates with poor patient prognosis in triple negative breast cancer

The RUNX1 transcription factor is widely recognised for its tumour suppressor effects in leukaemia. Recently a putative link to breast cancer has started to emerge, however the function of RUNX1 in breast cancer is still unknown. To investigate if RUNX1 expression was important to clinical outcome in primary breast tumours a tissue microarray (TMA) containing biopsies from 483 patients with primary operable invasive ductal breast cancer was stained by immunohistochemistry. RUNX1 was associated with progesterone receptor (PR)-positive tumours (P&#60;0.05), more tumour CD4+(P&#60;0.05) and CD8+(P&#60;0.01) T-lymphocytic infiltrate, increased tumour CD138+plasma cell (P&#60;0.01) and more CD68+macrophage infiltrate (P&#60;0.001). RUNX1 expression did not influence outcome of oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive or HER2-positive disease, however on univariate analysis a high RUNX1 protein was significantly associated with poorer cancer-specific survival in patients with ER-negative (P&#60;0.05) and with triple negative (TN) invasive breast cancer (P&#60;0.05). Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analysis of cancer-specific survival showed a trend towards significance in ER-negative patients (P&#60;0.1) and was significant in triple negative patients (P&#60;0.05). Of relevance, triple negative breast cancer currently lacks good biomarkers and patients with this subtype do not benefit from the option of targeted therapy unlike patients with ER-positive or HER2-positive disease. Using multivariate analysis RUNX1 was identified as an independent prognostic marker in the triple negative subgroup. Overall, our study identifies RUNX1 as a new prognostic indicator correlating with poor prognosis specifically in the triple negative subtype of human breast cancer

Smoking and use of primary care services : findings from a population-based cohort study linked with administrative claims data

Background: Available evidence suggests that smokers have a lower propensity than others to use primary care services. But previous studies have incorporated only limited adjustment for confounding and mediating factors such as income, access to services and health status. We used data from a large prospective cohort study (the 45 and Up Study), linked to administrative claims data, to quantify the relationship between smoking status and use of primary care services, including specific preventive services, in a contemporary Australian population. Methods: Baseline questionnaire data from the 45 and Up Study were linked to administrative claims (Medicare) data for the 12-month period following study entry. The main outcome measures were Medicare benefit claimed for unreferred services, out-of-pocket costs (OOPC) paid, and claims for specific preventive services (immunisations, health assessments, chronic disease management services, PSA tests and Pap smears). Rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using a hierarchical series of models, adjusted for predisposing, access-and health-related factors. Separate hurdle (two part) regression models were constructed for Medicare benefit and OOPC. Poisson models with robust error variance were used to model use of each specific preventive service. Results: Participants included 254,382 people aged 45 years and over of whom 7.3% were current smokers. After adjustment for predisposing, access-and health-related factors, current smokers were very slightly less likely to have claimed Medicare benefit than never smokers. Among those who claimed benefit, current smokers claimed similar total benefit, but recent quitters claimed significantly greater benefit, compared to never-smokers. Current smokers were around 10% less likely than never smokers to have paid any OOPC. Current smokers were 15-20% less likely than never smokers to use immunisations, Pap smears and prostate specific antigen tests. Conclusions: Current smokers were less likely than others to use primary care services that incurred out of pocket costs, and specific preventive services. This was independent of a wide range of predisposing, access-and health-related factors, suggesting that smokers have a lower propensity to seek health care. Smokers may be missing out on preventive services from which they would differentially benefit

A Cone Jet-Finding Algorithm for Heavy-Ion Collisions at LHC Energies

Standard jet finding techniques used in elementary particle collisions have not been successful in the high track density of heavy-ion collisions. This paper describes a modified cone-type jet finding algorithm developed for the complex environment of heavy-ion collisions. The primary modification to the algorithm is the evaluation and subtraction of the large background energy, arising from uncorrelated soft hadrons, in each collision. A detailed analysis of the background energy and its event-by-event fluctuations has been performed on simulated data, and a method developed to estimate the background energy inside the jet cone from the measured energy outside the cone on an event-by-event basis. The algorithm has been tested using Monte-Carlo simulations of Pb+Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s}=5.5$ TeV for the ALICE detector at the LHC. The algorithm can reconstruct jets with a transverse energy of 50 GeV and above with an energy resolution of $\sim30$.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figure

Estimating the burden of minor ailment consultations in general practices and emergency departments through retrospective review of routine data in North East Scotland

Minor ailment attendances in general practices and emergency departments (EDs) place significant burden on health care resources

Physics Revealed at Intermediate p_T

A review is given on the subject of hadron production at intermediate $p_T$ in heavy-ion collisions. The underlying dynamical processes are inferred from interpreting the data in the framework of recombination. Ridge formation with or without triggers is found to play an important role in nearly all observables in that $p_T$ region. Correlation data would be hard to interpret without taking ridges into account. The semi-hard partons that create the ridges may even be able to drive elliptic flow without fast thermalization.Comment: 8 pages, plenary talk given at Quark Matter 2008, Jaipur, Indi

Using cloud ice flux to parametrise large-scale lightning

Lightning is an important natural source of nitrogen oxide especially in the middle and upper troposphere. Hence, it is essential to represent lightning in chemistry transport and coupled chemistry climate models. Using ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis data we compare the lightning flash density distributions produced using several existing lightning parametrisations, as well as a new parametrisation developed on the basis of upward cloud ice flux at 440 hPa. The use of ice flux forms a link to the non-inductive charging mechanism of thunderstorms. Spatial and temporal distributions of lightning flash density are compared to tropical and subtropical observations for 2007-2011 from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The well-used lightning flash parametrisation based on cloud-top height has large biases but the derived annual total flash density has a better spatial correlation with the LIS observations than other existing parametrisations. A comparison of flash density simulated by the different schemes shows that the cloud-top height parametrisation has many more instances of moderate flash densities and fewer low and high extremes compared to the other parametrisations. Other studies in the literature have shown that this feature of the cloud-top height parametrisation is in contrast to lightning observations over certain regions. Our new ice flux parametrisation shows a clear improvement over all the existing parametrisations with lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) and better spatial correlations with the observations for distributions of annual total, and seasonal and interannual variations. The greatest improvement with the new parametrisation is a more realistic representation of the zonal distribution with a better balance between tropical and subtropical lightning flash estimates. The new parametrisation is appropriate for testing in chemistry transport and chemistry climate models that use a lightning parametrisation