Construction of a surface air temperature series for Qingdao in China for the period 1899 to 2014

Abstract. We present a homogenized surface air temperature (SAT) time series at 2 m height for the city of Qingdao in China from 1899 to 2014. This series is derived from three data sources: newly digitized and homogenized observations of the German National Meteorological Service from 1899 to 1913, homogenized observation data of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) from 1961 to 2014 and a gridded dataset of Willmott and Matsuura (2012) in Delaware to fill the gap from 1914 to 1960. Based on this new series, long-term trends are described. The SAT in Qingdao has a significant warming trend of 0.11 ± 0.03 °C decade−1 during 1899–2014. The coldest period occurred during 1909–1918 and the warmest period occurred during 1999–2008. For the seasonal mean SAT, the most significant warming can be found in spring, followed by winter. The homogenized time series of Qingdao is provided and archived by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) web page under overseas stations of the Deutsche Seewarte (http://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/overseas_stations/ueberseedoku/doi_qingdao.html) in ASCII format. Users can also freely obtain a short description of the data at https://doi.org/https://dx.doi.org/10.5676/DWD/Qing_v1 And the data can be downloaded at http://dwd.de/EN/ourservices/overseas_stations/ueberseedoku/data_qingdao.txt

An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3

The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a “best estimate” of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context

Reexamination of a Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Antioxidant Supplementation on Mortality and Health in Randomized Trials

A recent meta-analysis of selected randomized clinical trials (RCTs), in which population groups of differing ages and health status were supplemented with various doses of β-carotene, vitamin A, and/or vitamin E, found that these interventions increased all-cause mortality. However, this meta-analysis did not consider the rationale of the constituent RCTs for antioxidant supplementation, none of which included mortality as a primary outcome. As the rationale for these trials was to test the hypothesis of a potential benefit of antioxidant supplementation, an alternative approach to a systematic evaluation of these RCTs would be to evaluate this outcome relative to the putative risk of greater total mortality. Thus, we examined these data based on the primary outcome of the 66 RCTs included in the meta-analysis via a decision analysis to identify whether the results provided a positive (i.e., benefit), null or negative (i.e., harm) outcome. Our evaluation indicated that of these RCTs, 24 had a positive outcome, 39 had a null outcome, and 3 had a negative outcome. We further categorized these interventions as primary (risk reduction in healthy populations) or secondary (slowing pathogenesis or preventing recurrent events and/or cause-specific mortality) prevention or therapeutic (treatment to improve quality of life, limit complications, and/or provide rehabilitation) studies, and determined positive outcomes in 8 of 20 primary prevention studies, 10 of 34 secondary prevention studies, and 6 out of 16 therapeutic studies. Seven of the eight RCTs with a positive outcome in primary prevention included participants in a population where malnutrition is frequently described. These results suggest that analyses of potential risks from antioxidant supplementation should be placed in the context of a benefit/risk ratio

Towards an integrated set of surface meteorological observations for climate science and applications

Observations are the foundation for understanding the climate system. Yet, currently available land meteorological data are highly fractured into various global, regional and national holdings for different variables and timescales, from a variety of sources, and in a mixture of formats. Added to this, many data are still inaccessible for analysis and usage. To meet modern scientific and societal demands as well as emerging needs such as the provision of climate services, it is essential that we improve the management and curation of available land-based meteorological holdings. We need a comprehensive global set of data holdings, of known provenance, that is truly integrated both across Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and across timescales to meet the broad range of stakeholder needs. These holdings must be easily discoverable, made available in accessible formats, and backed up by multi-tiered user support. The present paper provides a high level overview, based upon broad community input, of the steps that are required to bring about this integration. The significant challenge is to find a sustained means to realize this vision. This requires a long-term international program. The database that results will transform our collective ability to provide societally relevant research, analysis and predictions in many weather and climate related application areas across much of the globe

Signal Stations: Newly Digitized Historical Climate Data of the German Bight and the Southern Baltic Sea Coasts

At the German Meteorological Service in Hamburg, handwritten journals of meteorological observation data of 164 signal stations exist that were digitized. These data contain long-term time series of up to 125 years for the period 1877–1999 and allow for studies of regional meteorological conditions with greatly improved spatial resolution. Wind and air pressure data of selected signal stations along the German Bight and the southern Baltic Sea coast show a spatial data homogeneity that allows for an improved description of two historical storms, in 1906 and 1913. This is the first presentation of signal station data

Data rescue of national and international meteorological observations at Deutscher Wetterdienst

Germany's national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) houses in Offenbach and Hamburg huge archives of historical handwritten journals of weather observations. They comprise not only observations from Germany, but also of the oceans and land stations in many parts of the world. DWD works on the digitization and quality control of these archives. The current status is presented here