Cartographie du risque unitaire d'endommagement (CRUE) par inondations pour les résidences unifamiliales du Québec

Actuellement, en considérant simultanément les éléments constitutifs du risque, soit l'aléa et la vulnérabilité, aucune des méthodes existantes dites de cartographie des risques d'inondation ne permet d'établir de façon précise et quantifiable en tous points du territoire les risques d'inondation. La méthode de cartographie présentée permet de combler ce besoin en répondant aux critères suivants : facilité d'utilisation, de consultation et d'application, résultats distribués spatialement, simplicité de mise à jour, applicabilité à divers types de résidences.La méthode présentée utilise une formulation unitaire du risque basée sur les taux d'endommagement distribués et reliés à diverses périodes de retour de crues à l'eau libre. Ceux-ci sont d'abord calculés à partir des hauteurs de submersion qu'on déduit de la topographie, des niveaux d'eau pour des périodes de retour représentatives et du mode d'implantation des résidences (présence de sous-sol, hauteur moyenne du rez-de-chaussée). Ensuite, le risque unitaire est obtenu par intégration du produit du taux d'endommagement croissant par son incrément de probabilité au dépassement. Le résultat est une carte représentant le risque en % de dommage direct moyen annuel. Une étude pilote sur un tronçon de la rivière Montmorency (Québec, Canada) a montré que les cartes sont expressives, flexibles et peuvent recevoir tous les traitements additionnels permis par un SIG tel que le logiciel MODELEUR/HYDROSIM développé à l'INRS-ETE, l'outil utilisé pour cette recherche. Enfin, l'interprétation sur la Montmorency des cartes d'inondation en vigueur actuellement au Canada (les limites de crue de 20/100 ans) soulève des interrogations sur le niveau de risque actuellement accepté dans la réglementation, surtout quand on le compare aux taux de taxation municipale.Public managers of flood risks need simple and precise tools to deal with this problem and to minimize its consequences, especially for land planning and management. Several methods exist that produce flood risk maps and help to restrict building residences in flood plains. For example, the current method in Canada is based on the delineation in flood plains of two regions corresponding to floods of 20- and 100-year return periods (CONVENTION CANADA/QUÉBEC, 1994), mostly applied to ice-free flooding conditions. The method applied by the Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA (2004) is also based on the statistical structure of the floods in different contexts, with a goal mostly oriented towards the determination of insurance rates. In France, the INONDABILITÉ method (GILARD and GENDREAU, 1998) seeks to match the present probability of flooding to a reduced one that the stakeholders would be willing to accept.However, considering that the commonly accepted definition of risk includes both the probability of flooding and its consequences (costs of damages), very few, if any of the present methods can strictly be considered as risk-mapping methods. The method presented hereafter addresses this gap by representing the mean annual rate of direct damage (unit value) for different residential building modes, taking into account the flood probability structure and the spatial distribution of the submersion height, which takes into account the topography of the flood plain and the water stage distribution, the residential settlement mode (basement or not) and the first floor elevation of the building. The method seeks to meet important criteria related to efficient land planning and management, including: ease of utilisation, consultation and application for managers; spatially distributed results usable in current geographical information systems (GIS maps); availability anywhere in the area under study; ease of updating; and adaptability for a wide range of residence types.The proposed method is based on a unit treatment of the risk variable that corresponds to a rate of damage, instead of an absolute value expressed in monetary units. Direct damages to the building are considered, excluding damages to furniture and other personal belongs. Damage rates are first computed as a function of the main explanatory variable represented by the field of submersion depths. This variable, which is obtained from the 2D subtraction of the terrain topography from the water stage for each reference flood event, is defined by its probability of occurrence. The mean annual rate of damage (unit risk) is obtained by integrating the field of damage rate with respect to the annual probability structure of the available flood events. The result is a series of maps corresponding to representative modes of residential settlement.The damage rate was computed with a set of empirical functional relationships developed for the Saguenay region (Québec, Canada) after the flood of 1996. These curves were presented in LECLERC et al. (2003); four different curves form the set that represents residences with or without a basement, with a value below or above $CAD 50,000, which is roughly correlated with the type of occupation (i.e., secondary or main residence). While it cannot be assumed that theses curves are generic with respect to the general situation in Canada, or more specifically, in the province of Québec, the method itself can still be applied by making use of alternate sets of submersion rates of damage curves developed for other specific scenarios. Moreover, as four different functional relationships were used to represent the different residential settlement modes, four different maps have to be drawn to represent the vulnerability of the residential sector depending of the type of settlement. Consequently, as the maps are designed to represent a homogeneous mode of settlement, they represent potential future development in a given region better than the current situation. They can also be used to evaluate public policies regarding urban development and building restrictions in the flood plains.A pilot study was conducted on a reach of the Montmorency River (Québec, Canada; BLIN, 2002). It was possible to verify the compliance of the method to the proposed utilisation criteria. The method proved to be simple to use, adaptive and compatible with GIS modeling environments, such as MODELEUR (SECRETAN at al, 1999), a 2D finite elements modeling system designed for a fluvial environment. Water stages were computed with a 2D hydrodynamic simulator (HYDROSIM; HENICHE et al., 1999a) to deal with the river reach complexity (a breaded reach with back waters). Due to the availability of 2D results, a 2D graphic representation of the information layers can therefore be configured, taking into account the specific needs of the interveners. In contexts where one dimensional water stage profiles are computed (e.g., HEC-RAS by USACE, 1990; DAMBRK by FREAD, 1984), an extended 2D representation of these data needs to be developed in the lateral flood plains in order to achieve a 2D distributed submersion field.Among the interesting results, it was possible to compare the risk level for given modes of settlements (defined by the presence/absence of a basement and the elevation of the first floor with respect to the land topography) with current practices, based only on the delineation of the limits of the flood zones corresponding to 20/100 year return periods. We conclude that, at least in the particular case under study, the distributed annual rate of damage seems relatively large with respect to other financial indicators for residences such as urban taxation rates

Picbreeder: A Case Study in Collaborative Evolutionary Exploration of Design Space

For domains in which fitness is subjective or difficult to express formally, interactive evolutionary computation (IEC) is a natural choice. It is possible that a collaborative process combining feedback from multiple users can improve the quality and quantity of generated artifacts. Picbreeder, a large-scale online experiment in collaborative interactive evolution (CIE), explores this potential. Picbreeder is an online community in which users can evolve and share images, and most importantly, continue evolving others\u27 images. Through this process of branching from other images, and through continually increasing image complexity made possible by the underlying neuroevolution of augmenting topologies (NEAT) algorithm, evolved images proliferate unlike in any other current IEC system. This paper discusses not only the strengths of the Picbreeder approach, but its challenges and shortcomings as well, in the hope that lessons learned will inform the design of future CIE systems

FLOW ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE LAKE ÁGUA PRETA: WATER SOURCE OF THE BELÉM METROPOLITAN AREA

The natural conditions of water resources can be modified with the unsustainable use of them. For example, in Belém, capital of Pará State, Água Preta Lake has a history of degradation jeopardize the drinking water supply in Belém. Thus, the main contribution of this work is to develop a study on modeling hydrodynamic study of Água Preta Lake. Such study is carried through the bathymetric of 2009 performed with an ADCP. The bathymetry and substrate data that composes the Lake and its boundary. The bathymetry data are used to construct the digital elevation model, with the coordinates x, y and z in UTM; while the composition of the substrate is used for the determination of the Manning coefficient. The coordinates x, y, z and Manning coefficient are used in the hydrodynamic model. This one is the classic model of Saint-Venant. In this case, a vertical integration is applied to the three-dimensional equations of Navier-Stokes for incompressible flow with outline conditions, of bottom and of liquid and solid surface, included. Thus, the problem becomes two-dimensional (2D) and the values obtained for velocities are medium in the vertical direction. The velocities are the input data for the many models, such as pollutant dispersion sediment transport and aquatic fauna and flora habitats. Thus, besides of hydrodynamic model explains the patterns of flow in the lake, it can be employed for the others models of the Lake Água Preta

Reaction time and incident cancer: 25 years of follow-up of study members in the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey

<b>Objectives</b><p></p> To investigate the association of reaction time with cancer incidence.<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> 6900 individuals aged 18 to 94 years who participated in the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey in 1984/1985 and were followed for a cancer registration for 25 years.<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> Disease surveillance gave rise to 1015 cancer events from all sites. In general, there was essentially no clear pattern of association for either simple or choice reaction time with cancer of all sites combined, nor specific malignancies. However, selected associations were found for lung cancer, colorectal cancer and skin cancer.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b><p></p> In the present study, reaction time and its components were not generally related to cancer risk

Body fatness and cancer - viewpoint of the IARC working group

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Overeating, caloric restriction and breast cancer risk by pathologic subtype: the EPIGEICAM study

This study analyzes the association of excessive energy intake and caloric restriction with breast cancer (BC) risk taking into account the individual energy needs of Spanish women. We conducted a multicenter matched case-control study where 973 pairs completed lifestyle and food frequency questionnaires. Expected caloric intake was predicted from a linear regression model in controls, including calories consumed as dependent variable, basal metabolic rate as an offset and physical activity as explanatory. Overeating and caloric restriction were defined taking into account the 99% confidence interval of the predicted value. The association with BC risk, overall and by pathologic subtype, was evaluated using conditional and multinomial logistic regression models. While premenopausal women that consumed few calories (>20% below predicted) had lower BC risk (OR = 0.36; 95% CI = 0.21–0.63), postmenopausal women with an excessive intake (≥40% above predicted) showed an increased risk (OR = 2.81; 95% CI = 1.65–4.79). For every 20% increase in relative (observed/predicted) caloric intake the risk of hormone receptor positive (p-trend < 0.001) and HER2+ (p-trend = 0.015) tumours increased 13%, being this figure 7% for triple negative tumours. While high energy intake increases BC risk, caloric restriction could be protective. Moderate caloric restriction, in combination with regular physical activity, could be a good strategy for BC prevention

An efficient strategy for evaluating new non-invasive screening tests for colorectal cancer: the guiding principles.

New screening tests for colorectal cancer (CRC) are rapidly emerging. Conducting trials with mortality reduction as the end point supporting their adoption is challenging. We re-examined the principles underlying evaluation of new non-invasive tests in view of technological developments and identification of new biomarkers. A formal consensus approach involving a multidisciplinary expert panel revised eight previously established principles. Twelve newly stated principles emerged. Effectiveness of a new test can be evaluated by comparison with a proven comparator non-invasive test. The faecal immunochemical test is now considered the appropriate comparator, while colonoscopy remains the diagnostic standard. For a new test to be able to meet differing screening goals and regulatory requirements, flexibility to adjust its positivity threshold is desirable. A rigorous and efficient four-phased approach is proposed, commencing with small studies assessing the test's ability to discriminate between CRC and non-cancer states (phase I), followed by prospective estimation of accuracy across the continuum of neoplastic lesions in neoplasia-enriched populations (phase II). If these show promise, a provisional test positivity threshold is set before evaluation in typical screening populations. Phase III prospective studies determine single round intention-to-screen programme outcomes and confirm the test positivity threshold. Phase IV studies involve evaluation over repeated screening rounds with monitoring for missed lesions. Phases III and IV findings will provide the real-world data required to model test impact on CRC mortality and incidence. New non-invasive tests can be efficiently evaluated by a rigorous phased comparative approach, generating data from unbiased populations that inform predictions of their health impact