Trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia with a case study of Debre Markos

Understanding extreme precipitation is very important for Ethiopia, which is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture but lacks structural and non-structural water regulating and storage mechanisms. There has been an increasing concern about whether there is an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate changes. Existing analysis of this region has been descriptive, without taking advantage of the advances in extreme value modeling. After reviewing the statistical methodology on extremes, this paper presents an analysis based on the generalized extreme value modeling with daily time series of precipitation records at Debre Markos in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. We found no strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis that there is no increasing trend in extreme precipitation at this location

Statistical tools for transgene copy number estimation based on real-time PCR

Background As compared with traditional transgene copy number detection technologies such as Southern blot analysis, real-time PCR provides a fast, inexpensive and high-throughput alternative. However, the real-time PCR based transgene copy number estimation tends to be ambiguous and subjective stemming from the lack of proper statistical analysis and data quality control to render a reliable estimation of copy number with a prediction value. Despite the recent progresses in statistical analysis of real-time PCR, few publications have integrated these advancements in real-time PCR based transgene copy number determination. Results Three experimental designs and four data quality control integrated statistical models are presented. For the first method, external calibration curves are established for the transgene based on serially-diluted templates. The Ct number from a control transgenic event and putative transgenic event are compared to derive the transgene copy number or zygosity estimation. Simple linear regression and two group T-test procedures were combined to model the data from this design. For the second experimental design, standard curves were generated for both an internal reference gene and the transgene, and the copy number of transgene was compared with that of internal reference gene. Multiple regression models and ANOVA models can be employed to analyze the data and perform quality control for this approach. In the third experimental design, transgene copy number is compared with reference gene without a standard curve, but rather, is based directly on fluorescence data. Two different multiple regression models were proposed to analyze the data based on two different approaches of amplification efficiency integration. Our results highlight the importance of proper statistical treatment and quality control integration in real-time PCR-based transgene copy number determination. Conclusion These statistical methods allow the real-time PCR-based transgene copy number estimation to be more reliable and precise with a proper statistical estimation. Proper confidence intervals are necessary for unambiguous prediction of trangene copy number. The four different statistical methods are compared for their advantages and disadvantages. Moreover, the statistical methods can also be applied for other real-time PCR-based quantification assays including transfection efficiency analysis and pathogen quantification

Hydrological Foundation as a Basis for a Holistic Environmental Flow Assessment of Tropical Highland Rivers in Ethiopia

The sustainable development of water resources includes retaining some amount of the natural flow regime in water bodies to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystem health and the human livelihoods and wellbeing dependent upon them. Although assessment of environmental flows is now occurring globally, limited studies have been carried out in the Ethiopian highlands, especially studies to understand flow-ecological response relationships. This paper establishes a hydrological foundation of Gumara River from an ecological perspective. The data analysis followed three steps: first, determination of the current flow regime flow indices and ecologically relevant flow regime; second, naturalization of the current flow regime looking at how flow regime is changing; and, finally, an initial exploration of flow linkages with ecological processes. Flow data of Gumara River from 1973 to 2018 are used for the analysis. Monthly low flow occurred from December to June; the lowest being in March, with a median flow of 4.0 m(3) s(-1). Monthly high flow occurred from July to November; the highest being in August, with a median flow of 236 m(3) s(-1). 1-Day low flows decreased from 1.55 m(3) s(-1) in 1973 to 0.16 m(3) s(-1) in 2018, and 90-Day (seasonal) low flow decreased from 4.9 m(3) s(-1) in 1973 to 2.04 m(3) s(-1) in 2018. The Mann-Kendall trend test indicated that the decrease in low flow was significant for both durations at alpha = 0.05. A similar trend is indicated for both durations of high flow. The decrease in both low flows and high flows is attributed to the expansion of pump irrigation by 29 km(2) and expansion of plantations, which resulted in an increase of NDVI from 0.25 in 2000 to 0.29 in 2019. In addition, an analysis of environmental flow components revealed that only four "large floods" appeared in the last 46 years; no "large flood" occurred after 1988. Lacking "large floods" which inundate floodplain wetlands has resulted in early disconnection of floodplain wetlands from the river and the lake; which has impacts on breeding and nursery habitat shrinkage for migratory fish species in Lake Tana. On the other hand, the extreme decrease in "low flow" components has impacts on pin smaller pools. These results serve as the hydrological foundation for continued studies in the Gumara catchment, with the eventual goal of quantifying environmental flow requirements.redators, reducing their mobility and ability to access prey concentrate

Rainfall Thresholding and Susceptibility assessment of rainfall induced landslides: application to landslide management in St Thomas, Jamaica

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10064-009-0232-zThe parish of St Thomas has one of the highest densities of landslides in Jamaica, which impacts the residents, local economy and the built and natural environment. These landslides result from a combination of steep slopes, faulting, heavy rainfall and the presence of highly weathered volcanics, sandstones, limestones and sandstone/shale series and are particularly prevalent during the hurricane season (June–November). The paper reports a study of the rainfall thresholds and landslide susceptibility assessment to assist the prediction, mitigation and management of slope instability in landslide-prone areas of the parish

Evaluation of bio-physiological and yield responses of stay green QTL introgression sorghum lines to post-flowering drought stress

Drought is the most drastic abiotic stress that limits crop production in sub-Sahara Africa. Sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) is among the most climate resilient cereals of the future due to its tolerance to drought and heat. Thus, identification of tolerant genotypes and plant characteristics that contribute to drought adaptation is timely. The objective of this study was to evaluate the response of 12 genotypes, including seven Stay-green (Stg) QTL introgression sorghum lines and their two donor; and three recurrent parents, to induced post-flowering drought stress. The recurrent parents were varieties released for drought prone lowlands of the country, and the donor parents were lines known to have stay-green properties. The study was conducted at Werer, in the Great Rift-valley of Ethiopia, during the off-season of 2014 under well-watered and water limited conditions. Significant differences (P<0.05) were observed among genotypes under water deficit regimes, for all measured physiological, biochemical (proline content), yield and yield related traits. Three Stg QTL introgression lines showed better tolerance to drought than their recurrent parents, as reflected by yield and maintenance of green leaf area. Three Stg QTL introgression lines, Teshale/E36-1, Gambella/B35-5 and Meko/B35-12, gave the highest grain yield under post-flowering drought stress, and B35 and Teshale/B35 gave the poorest yield under similar conditions. Therefore, these improved lines bear potential for use as alternatives in breeding programmes and for possible release in parts of the country where post-flowering drought stress is frequent. Proline content, weight of hundred seeds (HSW) and CO2 assimilation are effective screening tools for Stg property due to their high correlation with other parameters.La s\ue8cheresse est le stress abiotique le plus drastique qui limite la production agricole en Afrique Sub-saharienne. Le sorgho ( Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) est parmi les c\ue9r\ue9ales les plus r\ue9silientes au climat pour le futur d\ufb \ue0 sa tol\ue9rance \ue0 la s\ue9cheresse et \ue0 la chaleur. Donc, l\u2019identification des g\ue9notypes tol\ue9rants et les caract\ue9ristiques des plants qui contribuent \ue0 l\u2019adaptation \ue0 la s\ue9cheresse est opportune. L\u2019objectif de cette \ue9tude \ue9tait d\u2019\ue9valuer la r\ue9ponse de 12 g\ue9notypes, comportant sept lign\ue9es de sorgho conf\ue9rant l\u2019introgression des QTL des attributs verts (Stg), leurs deux donneurs\ua0; et les trois parents r\ue9currents, au stress de la s\ue9cheresse post floraison induite. Les parents r\ue9currents ont \ue9t\ue9 les vari\ue9t\ue9s lib\ue9r\ue9es sensibles \ue0 la s\ue9cheresse dans les plaines du pays, et les donneurs ont \ue9t\ue9 les lign\ue9es connues pour leurs propri\ue9t\ue9s relatives aux attributs verts. L\u2019\ue9tude a \ue9t\ue9 conduite \ue0 Werer, dans la grande vall\ue9e du Rift d\u2019Ethiopie, pendant la contre saison de 2014 dans des conditions d\u2019irrigation abondante et d\u2019irrigation limit\ue9e. De diff\ue9rences significatives (P<0.05) ont \ue9t\ue9 observ\ue9es entre les g\ue9notypes sous des r\ue9gimes de d\ue9ficit hydriques, pour tous les traits physiologiques, biochimiques (teneur en proline), le rendement et les composantes de rendement. Trois lign\ue9es d\u2019introgression de Stg QTL ont montr\ue9 de meilleure tol\ue9rance \ue0 la s\ue9cheresse que leurs parents r\ue9currents, comme refl\ue9t\ue9 par le rendement et la maintenance de la surface verte de la feuille. Trois lign\ue9es d\u2019introgression de Stg QTL, Teshale/E36-1, Gambella/B35-5 et Meko/B35-12, ont donn\ue9 le plus haut rendement sous le stress de s\ue9cheresse de post floraison, et B35 et Teshale/B35 ont donn\ue9 le plus faible rendement dans des conditions similaires. En cons\ue9quence, ces lign\ue9es am\ue9lior\ue9es d\ue9tiennent tout le potentiel pour leur usage comme alternatives dans des programmes d\u2019am\ue9lioration g\ue9n\ue9tiques et pour une lib\ue9ration possible dans les r\ue9gions du pays o\uf9 le stress de la s\ue9cheresse post floraison est fr\ue9quent. La teneur en proline, le poids de 100 graines (HSW) et l\u2019assimilation du CO2 sont des outils effectifs de criblage pour la propri\ue9t\ue9 de Stg due \ue0 leur forte corr\ue9lation avec les autres param\ue8tres

Epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages and strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Previous work has shown differential predominance of certain Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) lineages and sub-lineages among different human populations in diverse geographic regions of Ethiopia. Nevertheless, how strain diversity is evolving under the ongoing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes is poorly understood. The present study investigated factors associated with M. tb lineage predominance and rate of strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia. METHODS: Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and Cervical tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLN) patients who visited selected health facilities were recruited in the years of 2016 and 2017. A total of 258 M. tb isolates identified from 163 sputa and 95 fine-needle aspirates (FNA) were characterized by spoligotyping and compared with international M.tb spoligotyping patterns registered at the SITVIT2 databases. The molecular data were linked with clinical and demographic data of the patients for further statistical analysis. RESULTS: From a total of 258 M. tb isolates, 84 distinct spoligotype patterns that included 58 known Shared International Type (SIT) patterns and 26 new or orphan patterns were identified. The majority of strains belonged to two major M. tb lineages, L3 (35.7%) and L4 (61.6%). The observed high percentage of isolates with shared patterns (n = 200/258) suggested a substantial rate of overall clustering (77.5%). After adjusting for the effect of geographical variations, clustering rate was significantly lower among individuals co-infected with HIV and other concomitant chronic disease. Compared to L4, the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (AOR; 95% CI) indicated that infections with L3 M. tb strains were more likely to be associated with TBLN [3.47 (1.45, 8.29)] and TB-HIV co-infection [2.84 (1.61, 5.55)]. CONCLUSION: Despite the observed difference in strain diversity and geographical distribution of M. tb lineages, compared to earlier studies in Ethiopia, the overall rate of strain clustering suggests higher transmission and warrant more detailed investigations into the molecular epidemiology of TB and related factors

If you feed them, they will come: A prospective study of the effects of complimentary food on attendance and physician attitudes at medical grand rounds at an academic medical center

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evidence suggests that attendance at medical grand rounds at academic medical centers is waning. The present study examined whether attendance at medical grand rounds increased after providing complimentary food to attendees and also assessed attendee attitudes about complimentary food.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this prospective, before-and-after study, attendance at medical grand rounds was monitored from September 25, 2002, to June 2, 2004, using head counts. With unrestricted industry (eg, pharmaceutical) financial support, complimentary food was provided to medical grand rounds attendees beginning June 4, 2003. Attendance was compared during the pre-complimentary food and complimentary food periods. Attitudes about the complimentary food were assessed with use of a survey administered to attendees at the conclusion of the study period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean (± SD) overall attendance by head counts increased 38.4% from 184.1 ± 90.4 during the pre-complimentary food period to 254.8 ± 60.5 during the complimentary food period (<it>P </it>< .001). At the end of the study period, 70.1% of the attendee survey respondents indicated that they were more likely to attend grand rounds because of complimentary food, 53.6% indicated that their attendance increased as a result of complimentary food, and 53.1% indicated that their attendance would decrease if complimentary food was no longer provided. Notably, 80.3% indicated that food was not a distraction, and 81.7% disagreed that industry representatives had influence over medical grand rounds because of their financial support for the food.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Providing free food may be an effective strategy for increasing attendance at medical grand rounds.</p

Study of growth and physiological characters in stay-green QTL introgression Sorghum bicolor (L.) lines under post-flowering drought stress

This experiment was carried out to evaluate the growth, physiological and yield traits of stay-green (Stg) QTL introgression sorghum lines, which were developed by the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research in collaboration with ICRISAT between 2006 and 2008, under induced post-flowering drought stress. It involved a total of 12 genotypes including seven Stg QTL introgression lines, two Stg donor parents and three senescent recurrent parents. It was organized in a split plot design with three replications under well-watered and induced drought stress growing conditions at Melka Werer, Ethiopia during the post-rainy season of 2014. Analysis of variance revealed that the effect of moisture regimes on all measured traits was significant (P > 0.05). Differences among the genotypes and genotypeby- water regime interaction were also significant (P > 0.05) for all the traits considered. Postflowering drought stress was observed to significantly reduce most of the growth, physiological and yield related traits. The Stg introgression lines Meko/B35-selection 120, Teshale/B35-selection 2 and Teshale/E36-1 showed better drought stress tolerance properties than the rest of the genotypes based on the measured growth and physiological traits. These introgression lines also showed better grain yield than their recurrent parents under post-flowering drought stress and can be used as new versions of the existing varieties (served as recurrent parents) and for future breeding programs. Furthermore, leaf chlorophyll content, assimilation rate, transpiration rate, water use efficiency, root length and root dry weight were found to have strong correlation and can be used to screen genotypes for post-flowering drought tolerance

Genetic fingerprinting and aflatoxin production of \u3ci\u3eAspergillus\u3c/i\u3e section Flavi associated with groundnut in eastern Ethiopia

Background: Aspergillus species cause aflatoxin contamination in groundnut kernels, being a health threat in agricultural products and leading to commodity rejection by domestic and international markets. Presence of Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus colonizing groundnut in eastern Ethiopia, as well as presence of aflatoxins have been reported, though in this region, no genetic studies have been done of these species in relation to their aflatoxin production. Results: In this study, 145 Aspergillus isolates obtained from groundnut kernels in eastern Ethiopia were genetically fingerprinted using 23 Insertion/Deletion (InDel) markers within the aflatoxin-biosynthesis gene cluster (ABC), identifying 133 ABC genotypes. Eighty-four isolates were analyzed by Ultra-Performance Liquid Chromatography (UPLC) for in vitro aflatoxin production. Analysis of genetic distances based on the approximately 85 kb-ABC by Neighbor Joining (NJ), 3D-Principal Coordinate Analysis (3D-PCoA), and Structure software, clustered the isolates into three main groups as a gradient in their aflatoxin production. Group I, contained 98% A. flavus, including L- and non-producers of sclerotia (NPS), producers of B1 and B2 aflatoxins, and most of them collected from the lowland-dry Babile area. Group II was a genetic admixture population of A. flavus (NPS) and A. flavus S morphotype, both low producers of aflatoxins. Group III was primarily represented by A. parasiticus and A. flavus S morphotype isolates both producers of B1, B2 and G1, G2 aflatoxins, and originated from the regions of Darolabu and Gursum. The highest in vitro producer of aflatoxin B1 was A. flavus NPS N1436 (77.98 μg/mL), and the highest producer of aflatoxin G1 was A. parasiticus N1348 (50.33 μg/mL), these isolates were from Gursum and Darolabu, respectively. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that combined the use of InDel fingerprinting of the ABC and corresponding aflatoxin production capability to describe the genetic diversity of Aspergillus isolates from groundnut in eastern Ethiopia. Three InDel markers, AFLC04, AFLC08 and AFLC19, accounted for the main assignment of individuals to the three Groups; their loci corresponded to aflC (pksA), hypC, and aflW (moxY) genes, respectively. Despite InDels within the ABC being often associated to loss of aflatoxin production, the vast InDel polymorphism observed in the Aspergillus isolates did not completely impaired their aflatoxin production in vitro

Integrative assessment of low-dose gamma radiation effects on <i>Daphnia magna</i> reproduction: Toxicity pathway assembly and AOP development

High energy gamma radiation is potentially hazardous to organisms, including aquatic invertebrates. Although extensively studied in a number of invertebrate species, knowledge on effects induced by gamma radiation is to a large extent limited to the induction of oxidative stress and DNA damage at the molecular/cellular level, or survival, growth and reproduction at the organismal level. As the knowledge of causal relationships between effects occurring at different levels of biological organization is scarce, the ability to provide mechanistic explanation for observed adverse effects is limited, and thus development of Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) and larger scale implementation into next generation hazard and risk predictions is restricted. The present study was therefore conducted to assess the effects of high-energy gamma radiation from cobalt-60 across multiple levels of biological organization (i.e., molecular, cellular, tissue, organ and individual) and characterize the major toxicity pathways leading to impaired reproduction in the model freshwater crustacean Daphnia magna (water flea). Following gamma exposure, a number of bioassays were integrated to measure relevant toxicological endpoints such as gene expression, reactive oxygen species (ROS), lipid peroxidation (LPO), neutral lipid storage, adenosine triphosphate (ATP) content, apoptosis, ovary histology and reproduction. A non-monotonic pattern was consistently observed across the levels of biological organization, albeit with some variation at the lower end of the dose-rate scale, indicating a complex response to radiation doses. By integrating results from different bioassays, a novel pathway network describing the key toxicity pathways involved in the reproductive effects of gamma radiation were proposed, such as DNA damage-oocyte apoptosis pathway, LPO-ATP depletion pathway, calcium influx-endocrine disruption pathway and DNA hypermethylation pathway. Three novel AOPs were proposed for oxidative stressor-mediated excessive ROS formation leading to reproductive effect, and thus introducing the world's first AOPs for non-chemical stressors in aquatic invertebrates.publishedVersio