How fast is fisheries-induced evolution? : Quantitative analysis of modelling and empirical studies

Peer reviewe

Temperature impacts on fish physiology and resource abundance lead to faster growth but smaller fish sizes and yields under warming

Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size-structure and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size-based food web models have found that bottom-up processes are important drivers of size-structure and fisheries yield in changing climates. However, we know less about the joint effects of 'bottom-up' and physiological effects of temperature; how do temperature effects propagate from individual-level physiology through food webs and alter the size-structure of exploited species in a community? Here, we assess how a species-resolved size-based food web is affected by warming through both these pathways and by exploitation. We parameterize a dynamic size spectrum food web model inspired by the offshore Baltic Sea food web, and investigate how individual growth rates, size-structure, and relative abundances of species and yields are affected by warming. The magnitude of warming is based on projections by the regional coupled model system RCA4-NEMO and the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and we evaluate different scenarios of temperature dependence on fish physiology and resource productivity. When accounting for temperature-effects on physiology in addition to on basal productivity, projected size-at-age in 2050 increases on average for all fish species, mainly for young fish, compared to scenarios without warming. In contrast, size-at-age decreases when temperature affects resource dynamics only, and the decline is largest for young fish. Faster growth rates due to warming, however, do not always translate to larger yields, as lower resource carrying capacities with increasing temperature tend to result in decline in the abundance of larger fish and hence spawning stock biomass. These results suggest that to understand how global warming affects the size structure of fish communities, both direct metabolic effects and indirect effects of temperature via basal resources must be accounted for

Estimating maturity from size-at-age data: are real-world fisheries datasets up to the task?

The size and age at which individuals mature is rapidly changing due to plastic and evolved responses to fisheries harvest and global warming. Understanding the nature of these changes is essential because maturity schedules are critical in determining population demography and ultimately, the economic value and viability of fisheries. Detecting maturity changes is, however, practically difficult and costly. A recently proposed biphasic growth modelling likelihood profiling method offers great potential as it can statistically estimate age-at-maturity from population-level size-at-age data, using the change-point in growth that occurs at maturity. Yet, the performance of the method on typical marine fisheries datasets remains untested. Here, we assessed the suitability of 12 North Sea and Australian species’ datasets for the likelihood profiling approach. The majority of the fisheries datasets were unsuitable as they had too small sample sizes or too large size-at-age variation. Further, datasets that did satisfy data requirements generally showed no correlation between empirical and model-derived maturity estimates. To understand why the biphasic approach had low performance we explored its sensitivity using simulated datasets. We found that method performance for marine fisheries datasets is likely to be low because of: (1) truncated age structures due to intensive fishing, (2) an under-representation of young individuals in datasets due to common fisheries-sampling protocols, and (3) large intrapopulation variability in growth curves. To improve our ability to detect maturation changes from population level size-at-age data we need to improve data collection protocols for fisheries monitoring

Smaller adult fish size in warmer water is not explained by elevated metabolism

Fish and other ectotherms living in warmer waters often grow faster as juveniles, mature earlier, but become smaller adults. Known as the temperature-size rule (TSR), this pattern is commonly attributed to higher metabolism in warmer waters, leaving fewer resources for growth. An alternative explanation focuses on growth and reproduction trade-offs across temperatures. We tested these hypotheses by measuring growth, maturation, metabolism and reproductive allocation from zebrafish populations kept at 26 and 30°C across six generations. Zebrafish growth and maturation followed TSR expectations but were not explained by baseline metabolic rate, which converged between temperature treatments after a few generations. Rather, we found that females at 30°C allocated more to reproduction, especially when maturing at the smallest sizes. We show that elevated temperatures do not necessarily increase baseline metabolism if sufficient acclimation is allowed and call for an urgent revision of modelling assumptions used to predict population and ecosystem responses to warming

Is oxygen limitation in warming waters a valid mechanism to explain decreased body sizes in aquatic ectotherms?

The authors would like to acknowledge funding from Australian Research Council (grant No. DP170104240) and the Kone Foundation (to AA), Horizon 2020 European research projects ClimeFish (grant No. 677039) (to ARB) and Australian Academy of Science (to JRM)Peer reviewedPostprintPostprin

Soft-bottom fishes and spatial protection: findings from a temperate marine protected area

Numerous studies over the last decades have focused on marine protected areas (MPAs) and their effects on fish communities. However, there is a knowledge gap regarding how species that live associated with soft-substrates (e.g., sand, mud) respond to spatial protection. We analyzed abundance, biomass and total lengths of the soft-bottom fishes in a multiple-use MPA in the north-eastern Atlantic, the Luiz Saldanha Marine Park (Portugal), during and after the implementation of its management plan. Data were collected by experimental fishing in areas with three different levels of protection, during the implementation period and for three years after full implementation of the MPA. Univariate analysis detected significant biomass increases between the two periods. Fish assemblages were mainly structured by depth and substrate, followed by protection level. Community composition analyses revealed significant differences between protection levels and between the two periods. Species exhibited a broad variation in their response to protection, and we hypothesize that factors such as species habitat preferences, body size and late maturity might be underlying determinants. Overall, this study provides some evidence of protection effectiveness in soft-bottom fish communities, supported by the significant increase in biomass in the protected areas and the positive trends of some species.project LIFE-BIOMARES [LIFE06 NAT/P/000192]; project BUFFER (ERA-Net BiodivERsA); company SECIL-Companhia Geral de Cal e Cimento S.A.; FCT-Foundation for Science and Technology [CCMAR/Multi/04326/2013, SFRH/BD/80771/2011]; Foundation for Science and Technology [SFRH/BD/80771/2011]; 2012 Sesimbra Scientific Priz