What is the potential for reducing national greenhouse gas emissions from crop and livestock production systems?

Agriculture has a devolved commitment to reduce national emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Using a systems model-based life-cycle analysis we explored the potential for reducing GHG in systems used to produce twelve crop and seven livestock commodities. With a functional unit of kg of product, differences in GHG between crops reflect differences in yield. Metabolisable energy (ME) or crude protein (CP) could be used, but deriving an economic value of GB£8.6/GJ ME and GB£0.62/kg CP, leads to a relatively consistent 2.6 kg CO2e/£ nutrient value. Potential GHG reductions ranged from 2% (sugar beet) to 15% (cereals) with agronomic changes, and 4–12% with increased crop yields. The best alternative livestock systems reduced GHG ranging between 7% (beef from the dairy herd) and 21% (extensive sheep meat). Half of the options reduced national production and hence increased imports. Overall, improvements in productivity and use of resources are the best options for reducing GH

Socio-economic Scenarios of Agricultural Land Use Change in Central and Eastern European Countries

The study presented in this paper is part of the ACCELERATES (Assessing Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Ecosystems from Regional Analysis to The European Scale) project whose main goal is the construction of integrated predictions of future land use in Europe. The scenarios constructed in the project include estimates not only due to changes in the climate baseline, but also estimates due to possible future changes in socio-economics. The overall aim of the ACCELERATES was to assess the vulnerability of European agroecosystems based on economic and environmental considerations in term of both their sensitivity and capacity to adapt changes. The historical background, the type of economy, the policy aim and governance and importance of agriculture in the overall national economy have created large differences between Western and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). This paper focuses on vulnerability of the farm sector and rural economy of CEECs.ACCELERATES, climate change, agricultural land use, scenario, Land Economics/Use, Q24,

Analysis of the 2007/8 Defra Farm Business Survey Energy Module

Key points This study has delivered an invaluable baseline estimate of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on commercial farms in England. Energy use and GHG emissions associated with particular commodities were quantified and results broadly agreed with those derived by Life Cycle Assessment, but with much scatter in the environmental performance of farms.Direct energy use on farms was generally less that indirect (embedded) energy use, except for horticulture, which is dominated by heating fuel use. In contrast, most GHG emissions are incurred on farms, rather than as embedded emissions.Scatter in both environmental and economic performance underlies the somewhat disappointing finding of no clear positive link between farm financial performance and energy use or GHG emissions. However, the mere existence of these ranges shows that there is scope for improvement in both financial and environmental performance and that there is no apparent barrier for both to be achievable in harmony. The recording of such farm-level energy data is essential for the future, as it should enable improvements to be made in efficiency of energy use. The improved UK agricultural GHG inventory will depend on high quality energy data on agricultural activities. This study will be invaluable in identifying the level of detail needed. Future data requirements include: contractor work rates and fuel use per unit area and per unit time, fertiliser and pesticide use by brand name, enhanced output data, especially animal live weights, and horticultural produce recorded by weight rather than by value

Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation

Studies of climate change impacts on agricultural land use generally consider sets of climates combined with fixed socio-economic scenarios, making it impossible to compare the impact of specific factors within these scenario sets. Analysis of the impact of specific scenario factors is extremely difficult due to prohibitively long run-times of the complex models. This study produces and combines metamodels of crop and forest yields and farm profit, derived from previously developed very complex models, to enable prediction of European land use under any set of climate and socio-economic data. Land use is predicted based on the profitability of the alternatives on every soil within every 10' grid across the EU. A clustering procedure reduces 23,871 grids with 20+ soils per grid to 6,714 clusters of common soil and climate. Combined these reduce runtime 100 thousand-fold. Profit thresholds define land as intensive agriculture (arable or grassland), extensive agriculture or managed forest, or finally unmanaged forest or abandoned land. The demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available. An iteration adjusts prices to meet these constraints. A range of measures are derived at 10' grid-level such as diversity as well as overall EU production. There are many ways to utilise this ability to do rapidWhat-If analysis of both impact and adaptations. The paper illustrates using two of the 5 different GCMs (CSMK3, HADGEM with contrasting precipitation and temperature) and two of the 4 different socio-economic scenarios ("We are the world", "Should I stay or should I go" which have contrasting demands for land), exploring these using two of the 13 scenario parameters (crop breeding for yield and population) . In the first scenario, population can be increased by a large amount showing that food security is far from vulnerable. In the second scenario increasing crop yield shows that it improves the food security problem

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the 'Paris Agreement' to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5 and 2 ◦C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15 % yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57 %). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders

Assessing the environmental impacts of healthier diets. Final report to Defra on project FO0427

Summary: oncern about the public health impacts of dietary habits in the UK have led to initiatives to encourage healthier eating, notably in the dietary guidelines represented of the eatwell plate (FSA, 2007) and the Eatwell Guide (NHS, 2016c). A change in UK dietary habits towards healthier eating would result in changes in the type and quantities of food items in the national diet, with implications for agricultural, food and allied industries. More specifically, this could lead to changes in land use and farming practices, both for the UK and its trading partners, with associated effects on greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. In this context, and sponsored by Defra, this study set out using a series of scenarios to assess the environmental impacts of changing dietary habits and specifically the adoption of healthier eating in the UK, and in broad terms some of the likely social and economic impacts on the agricultural and food sector, through a set of hypothetical scenarios. The main objectives were to: i) determine the consumption of food under possible future food consumption scenarios in the UK, including the eatwell plate; ii) quantify the production of agricultural commodities needed to meet the food needs of each scenario; iii) quantify the environmental impacts of food commodity production and consumption by scenarios, and iv) identify, in broad terms, the possible economic and societal impacts of dietary changes.The authors thank Defra for funding and supporting the project and all the stakeholders who participated in the project and helped greatly in shaping and quantifying the dietary change scenarios. The authors also thank others who contributed in other ways, e.g. nutritional advice from Prof Joe Millward of Surrey University

Factors Associated with Elevated ALT in an International HIV/HBV Co-Infected Cohort on Long-Term HAART

Previous studies have demonstrated that hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection increases the risk for ALT elevations in HIV-HBV co-infected patients during the first year of HAART; however, there is limited data on the prevalence of ALT elevations with prolonged HAART in this patient group.To identify factors associated with ALT elevations in an HIV-HBV co-infected cohort receiving prolonged HAART, data from 143 co-infected patients on HAART enrolled in an international HIV-HBV co-infected cohort where ALT measurements were obtained every 6 months was analysed. A person-visit analysis was used to determine frequency of ALT elevation (≥ 2.5×ULN) at each visit. Factors associated with ALT elevation were determined using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for correlated data. The median time on HAART at the end of follow-up was 5.6 years (range 0.4-13.3) years. During follow-up, median ALT was 36 U/L with 10.6% of person-visits classified as having ALT elevation. Most ALT elevations were grade 2 (86.5%), with only 13.5% of all ALT elevations grade 3 or higher. Univariate associations with ALT elevation (p<0.05) included history of AIDS, HBV DNA ≥ 2,000 IU/ml, HBeAg positive, study visit CD4 <200 cells/ml and nadir CD4 <200 cells/ml. In the multivariate analysis, only study visit CD4 <200 cells/ml (OR 2.07, 95%CI 1.04-4.11, p = 0.04) and HBeAg positive status (OR 2.22, 95%CI 1.03-4.79, p = 0.04) were independently associated with ALT elevation.In this HIV-HBV co-infected cohort, elevated ALT after >1 year of HAART was uncommon, and severe ALT elevations were rare. HIV-HBV co-infected patients on long-term HAART who are either HBeAg positive or have a CD4 count of <200 cells/ml are at increased risk for ALT elevations

Synergies between mitigation and adaptation to Climate Change in grassland-based farming systems

Climate change mitigation and adaptation have generally been considered in separate settings for both scientific and policy viewpoints. Recently, it has been stressed (e.g. by the latest IPCC reports) the importance to consider both mitigation and adaptation from land management together. To date, although there is already large amount of studies considering climate mitigation and adaptation in relation to grassland-based systems, there are no studies that analyse the potential synergies and tradeoffs for the main climate change mitigation and adaptation measures within the current European Policy context. This paper reviews which mitigation and adaptation measures interact with each other and how, and it explores the potential limitations and strengths of the different policy instruments that may have an effect in European grassland-based livestock systems

Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces

Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use

A model of the effect of fungicides on disease-induced yield loss, for use in wheat disease management decision support systems

A model of the effect of foliar-applied fungicides on disease-induced yield loss is described, parameterised and tested. The effects of fungicides on epidemics of Septoria tritici (leaf blotch), Puccinia striiformis (yellow rust), Blumeria graminis f.sp. tritici (powdery mildew) and Puccinia triticina (brown rust) on winter wheat were simulated using dose-response curve parameters. Where two or more active substances were applied together, their joint action was estimated using an additive dose model where the active substances had the same mode of action or a multiplicative survival model where the modes of action differed. By coupling the model with models of wheat canopy growth and foliar disease published previously, it was possible to estimate disease-induced yield loss for a prescribed fungicide programme. The difference in green canopy area and, hence, interception of photosynthetically active radiation between simulated undiseased and diseased (but treated) crop canopies was used to estimate yield loss. The model was tested against data front field experiments across a range of sites, seasons and wheat cultivars and was shown to predict the observed disease-induced yield loss with sufficient accuracy to support fungicide treatment decisions. A simple method Of accounting for uncertainty in the predictions of yield loss is described. Fungicide product, dose and spray timing combinations selected using the coupled models responded appropriately to disease pressure and cultivar disease resistance