Standards and Practices for Forecasting

One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength and sources of evidence. A checklist of principles is provided to assist in auditing the forecasting process. An audit can help one to find ways to improve the forecasting process and to avoid legal liability for poor forecasting

Evaluating Forecasting Methods

Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs, and assessing outputs. Most principles for testing forecasting methods are based on commonly accepted methodological procedures, such as to prespecify criteria or to obtain a large sample of forecast errors. However, forecasters often violate such principles, even in academic studies. Some principles might be surprising, such as do not use R-square, do not use Mean Square Error, and do not use the within-sample fit of the model to select the most accurate time-series model. A checklist of 32 principles is provided to help in systematically evaluating forecasting methods

Evidence of impaired mitochondrial cellular bioenergetics in ocular fibroblasts derived from glaucoma patients

Glaucoma is a progressive optic neuropathy characterized by the neurodegeneration of the retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) resulting in irreversible visual impairment and eventual blindness. RGCs are extremely susceptible to mitochondrial compromise due to their marked bioenergetic requirements and morphology. There is increasing interest in therapies targeting mitochondrial health as a method of preventing visual loss in managing glaucoma. The bioenergetic profile of Tenon's ocular fibroblasts from glaucoma patients and controls was investigated using the Seahorse XF24 analyser. Impaired mitochondrial cellular bioenergetics was detected in glaucomatous ocular fibroblasts including basal respiration, maximal respiration and spare capacity. Spare respiratory capacity levels reflect mitochondrial bio-energetic adaptability in response to pathophysiological stress. Basal oxidative stress was elevated in glaucomatous Tenon's ocular fibroblasts and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) induced reactive oxygen species (ROS) simulated the glaucomatous condition in normal Tenon's ocular fibroblasts. This work supports the role of therapeutic interventions to target oxidative stress or provide mitochondrial energetic support in glaucoma

Recruitment of aged donor heart with pharmacological stress echo. A case report

BACKGROUND: The heart transplant is a treatment of the heart failure, which is not responding to medications, and its efficiency is already proved: unfortunately, organ donation is a limiting step of this life-saving procedure. To counteract heart donor shortage, we should screen aged potential donor hearts for initial cardiomyopathy and functionally significant coronary artery disease. Donors with a history of cardiac disease are generally excluded. Coronary angiography is recommended for most male donors older than 45 years and female donors older than 50 years to evaluate coronary artery stenoses. A simpler way to screen aged potential donor hearts for initial cardiomyopathy and functionally significant coronary artery disease should be stress echocardiography. CASE REPORT: A marginal donor (A 57 year old woman meeting legal requirements for brain death) underwent a transesophageal (TE) Dipyridamole stress echo (6 minutes accelerated protocol) to rule out moderate or severe heart and coronary artery disease. Wall motion was normal at baseline and at peak stress (WMSI = 1 at baseline and peak stress, without signs of stress inducible ischemia). The pressure/volume ratio was 9.6 mmHg/ml/m(2 )at baseline, increasing to 14 mmHg/ml/m(2 )at peak stress, demonstrating absence of latent myocardial dysfunction. The marginal donor heart was transplanted to a recipient "marginal" for co-morbidity ( a 63 year old man with multiple myeloma and cardiac amyloidosis , chronic severe heart failure, NYHA class IV). Postoperative treatment and early immunosuppressant regimen were performed according to standard protocols. The transplanted heart was assessed normal for dimensions and ventricular function at transthoracic (TT) echocardiography on post-transplant day 7. Coronary artery disease was ruled out at coronary angiography one month after transplant; left ventriculography showed normal global and segmental LV function of the transplanted heart. CONCLUSION: For the first time stress echo was successfully used in the critical theater of screening potential donor hearts. This method is enormously more feasible, less expensive, and more environmentally sustainable than any possible alternative strategy based on stress scintigraphy perfusion imaging or coronary angiography. The selection of hearts "too good to die" on the basis of bedside resting and stress echo can be a critical way to solve the mismatch between donor need and supply

Installing hydrolytic activity into a completely <i>de novo </i>protein framework

The design of enzyme-like catalysts tests our understanding of sequence-to-structure/function relationships in proteins. Here we install hydrolytic activity predictably into a completely de novo and thermostable α-helical barrel, which comprises seven helices arranged around an accessible channel. We show that the lumen of the barrel accepts 21 mutations to functional polar residues. The resulting variant, which has cysteine–histidine–glutamic acid triads on each helix, hydrolyses p-nitrophenyl acetate with catalytic efficiencies that match the most-efficient redesigned hydrolases based on natural protein scaffolds. This is the first report of a functional catalytic triad engineered into a de novo protein framework. The flexibility of our system also allows the facile incorporation of unnatural side chains to improve activity and probe the catalytic mechanism. Such a predictable and robust construction of truly de novo biocatalysts holds promise for applications in chemical and biochemical synthesis

The 7th National Audit Project (NAP7) baseline survey of individual anaesthetists: preparedness for and experiences of peri-operative cardiac arrest

The Royal College of Anaesthetists' 7th National Audit Project baseline survey assessed knowledge, attitudes, practices and experiences of peri-operative cardiac arrests among UK anaesthetists and Anaesthesia Associates. We received 10,746 responses, representing a 71% response rate. In-date training in adult and paediatric advanced life support was reported by 9646 (90%) and 7125 (66%) anaesthetists, respectively. There were 8994 (84%) respondents who were confident in leading a peri-operative cardiac arrest, with males more confident than females, but only 5985 (56%) were confident in leading a debrief and 7340 (68%) communicating with next of kin. In the previous two years, 4806 (46%) respondents had managed at least one peri-operative cardiac arrest, of which 321 (7%) and 189 (4%) of these events involved a child or an obstetric patient, respectively. Respondents estimated the most common causes of peri-operative cardiac arrest to be hypovolaemia, hypoxaemia and cardiac ischaemia, with haemorrhage coming fifth. However, the most common reported causes for the most recently attended peri-operative cardiac arrest were haemorrhage; (927, 20%); anaphylaxis (474, 10%); and cardiac ischaemia (397, 9%). Operating lists or shifts were paused or stopped after 1330 (39%) cardiac arrests and 1693 (38%) respondents attended a debrief, with ‘hot’ debriefs most common. Informal wellbeing support was relatively common (2458, 56%) and formal support was uncommon (472, 11%). An impact on future care delivery was reported by 196 (4%) anaesthetists, most commonly a negative psychological impact. Management of a peri-operative cardiac arrest during their career was reported by 8654 (85%) respondents. The overall impact on professional life was more often judged positive (2630, 30%) than negative (1961, 23%), but impact on personal life was more often negative

Accuracy of responses from postal surveys about continuing medical education and information behavior: experiences from a survey among German diabetologists

BACKGROUND: Postal surveys are a popular instrument for studies about continuing medical education habits. But little is known about the accuracy of responses in such surveys. The objective of this study was to quantify the magnitude of inaccurate responses in a postal survey among physicians. METHODS: A sub-analysis of a questionnaire about continuing medical education habits and information management was performed. The five variables used for the quantitative analysis are based on a question about the knowledge of a fictitious technical term and on inconsistencies in contingency tables of answers to logically connected questions. RESULTS: Response rate was 52%. Non-response bias is possible but seems not very likely since an association between demographic variables and inconsistent responses could not be found. About 10% of responses were inaccurate according to the definition. CONCLUSION: It was shown that a sub-analysis of a questionnaire makes a quantification of inaccurate responses in postal surveys possible. This sub-analysis revealed that a notable portion of responses in a postal survey about continuing medical education habits and information management was inaccurate

The influence of long-term treadmill exercise on bone mass and articular cartilage in ovariectomized rats

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Loss of bone quality and deterioration of articular cartilage are commonly seen after menopause. While exercise may protect against tissue degeneration, a clear link has yet to be established. The aim of the present study is to investigate the influence of long-term treadmill exercise on changes in bone mass and articular cartilage in ovariectomized rats.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sixty female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned to 4 groups: ovariectomized (OVX), ovariectomized plus treadmill exercise (OVX-RUN), treadmill exercise alone (RUN), and control (CON) groups. After 36 weeks, the following variables were compared among the 4 groups. Bone mass was evaluated by trabecular bone volume and bone mineral density (BMD). Articular cartilage in the knee joints was evaluated by histology analysis and a modified Mankin score.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Rats in the ovariectomized groups (OVX and OVX-RUN) had significantly lower BMD and bone mass than the non-ovariectomized rats (CON and RUN), indicating that exercise did little to preserve bone mass. However, the sedentary OVX group had a significantly worse modified Mankin score (7.7 ± 1.4) than the OVX-RUN group (4.8 ± 1.0), whose scores did not differ significantly from the other 2 non-operated groups. The articular cartilage in the sedentary OVX rats was relatively thinner, hypocellular, and had more clefts than in the other 3 groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study suggests that long-term exercise protects articular cartilage in OVX rats but does not retard the loss of bone mass seen in after menopause.</p

GliMR: Cross-Border Collaborations to Promote Advanced MRI Biomarkers for Glioma

Purpose: There is an annual incidence of 50,000 glioma cases in Europe. The optimal treatment strategy is highly personalised, depending on tumour type, grade, spatial localization, and the degree of tissue infiltration. In research settings, advanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has shown great promise as a tool to inform personalised treatment decisions. However, the use of advanced MRI in clinical practice rem