Minimal climate impacts from short-lived climate forcers following emission reductions related to the COVID-19 pandemic

We present an assessment of the impacts on atmospheric composition and radiative forcing of short-lived pollutants following worldwide decrease in anthropogenic activity and emissions comparable to what has occurred in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using the global composition-climate model UKCA. Emission changes reduce tropospheric hydroxyl radical and ozone burdens, increasing methane lifetime. Reduced SO2 emissions and oxidising capacity lead to a decrease in sulphate aerosol and increase in aerosol size, with accompanying reductions to cloud droplet concentration. However, large reductions in black carbon emissions increase aerosol albedo. Overall, the changes in ozone and aerosol direct effects (neglecting aerosol-cloud interactions which were statistically insignificant but whose response warrants future investigation) yield a radiative forcing of -33 to -78 mWm-2. Upon cessation of emission reductions the short-lived climate forcers rapidly return to pre-COVID levels, meaning these changes are unlikely to have lasting impacts on climate assuming emissions return to pre-intervention levels

Contextual behavioural coaching: An evidence-based model for supporting behaviour change

As coaching psychology finds its feet, demands for evidence-based approaches are increasing both from inside and outside of the industry. There is an opportunity in the many evidence-based interventions in other areas of applied psychology that are of direct relevance to coaching psychology. However, there may too be risks associated with unprincipled eclecticism. Existing approaches that are gaining popularity in the coaching field such as Dialectic Behavioural Therapy and Mindfulness enjoy close affiliation with Contextual Behavioral Science (CBS). In this article, we provide a brief overview of CBS as a coherent philosophical, scientific, and practice framework for empirically supported coaching work. We review its evidence base, and its direct applicability to coaching by describing CBS’s most explicitly linked intervention – Acceptance and Commitment Therapy/Training (ACT). We highlight key strengths of ACT including: its great flexibility in regard of the kinds of client change it can support; the variety of materials and exercises available; and, the varied modes of delivery through which it has been shown to work. The article lays out guiding principles and provides a brief illustrative case study of Contextual Behavioural Coaching

Sources of surface O3 in the UK: tagging O3 within WRF-Chem

Tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations depend on a combination of hemispheric, regional, and local-scale processes. Estimates of how much O3 is produced locally vs. transported from further afield are essential in air quality management and regulatory policies. Here, a tagged-ozone mechanism within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to quantify the contributions to surface O3 in the UK from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from inside and outside the UK during May–August 2015. The contribution of the different source regions to three regulatory O3 metrics is also examined. It is shown that model simulations predict the concentration and spatial distribution of surface O3 with a domain-wide mean bias of −3.7 ppbv. Anthropogenic NOx emissions from the UK and Europe account for 13 % and 16 %, respectively, of the monthly mean surface O3 in the UK, as the majority (71 %) of O3 originates from the hemispheric background. Hemispheric O3 contributes the most to concentrations in the north and the west of the UK with peaks in May, whereas European and UK contributions are most significant in the east, south-east, and London, i.e. the UK's most populated areas, intensifying towards June and July. Moreover, O3 from European sources is generally transported to the UK rather than produced in situ. It is demonstrated that more stringent emission controls over continental Europe, particularly in western Europe, would be necessary to improve the health-related metric MDA8 O3 above 50 and 60 ppbv. Emission controls over larger areas, such as the Northern Hemisphere, are instead required to lessen the impacts on ecosystems as quantified by the AOT40 metric

Population exposure to hazardous air quality due to the 2015 fires in Equatorial Asia.

Vegetation and peatland fires cause poor air quality and thousands of premature deaths across densely populated regions in Equatorial Asia. Strong El-Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are associated with an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires in Indonesia and Borneo, enhancing population exposure to hazardous concentrations of smoke and air pollutants. Here we investigate the impact on air quality and population exposure of wildfires in Equatorial Asia during Fall 2015, which were the largest over the past two decades. We performed high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry based on a new fire emission product. The model captures the spatio-temporal variability of extreme pollution episodes relative to space- and ground-based observations and allows for identification of pollution sources and transport over Equatorial Asia. We calculate that high particulate matter concentrations from fires during Fall 2015 were responsible for persistent exposure of 69 million people to unhealthy air quality conditions. Short-term exposure to this pollution may have caused 11,880 (6,153-17,270) excess mortalities. Results from this research provide decision-relevant information to policy makers regarding the impact of land use changes and human driven deforestation on fire frequency and population exposure to degraded air quality.This research was supported in part by a L’Oréal-UNESCO UK and Ireland Fellowship For Women In Science (to PC), the Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) through the LICS the SAMBBA project (ref. NE/J009822/1), the EPA STAR program (R835422), and the National Research Fellow Award (NRF2012NRFNRFF001-031). EB is partly supported by funding from UBoC. Further support was provided by the Lilly Endowment, Inc., through its support for the Indiana University Pervasive Technology Institute and the Indiana METACyt Initiative. This work makes use of the LandScan (2013)™ High Resolution global Population Data Set copyrighted by UT-Battelle, LLC, operator of Oak Ridge National Laboratory under Contract No. DE-AC05- 00OR22725 with the United States Department of Energy. Global Burden of Disease used in this study have been accessed from the Institute for Health Metric and Evaluation website: http://ghdx.healthdata.org/ihme_data. We gratefully acknowledge the National Environment Agency (NEA) of Singapore for collecting and providing PM2.5 and PSI data (available at http://www.nea.gov.sg/anti-pollution-radiation-protection/air-pollution-control/psi/historical-psi-readings). The National Center for Atmospheric Research is operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research under the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation. We thank Louisa Emmons for providing the boundary conditions for dust from CAM-Chem. We also acknowledge the NASA scientists responsible for MODIS products, WRF-Chem developers and ACOM scientists at NCAR for useful discussion on model set-up

ROOOH: A missing piece of the puzzle for OH measurements in low-NO environments?

Abstract. Field campaigns have been carried out with the FAGE (fluorescence assay by gas expansion) technique in remote biogenic environments in the last decade to quantify the in situ concentrations of OH, the main oxidant in the atmosphere. These data have revealed concentrations of OH radicals up to a factor of 10 higher than predicted by models, whereby the disagreement increases with decreasing NO concentration. This was interpreted as a major lack in our understanding of the chemistry of biogenic VOCs (volatile organic compounds), particularly isoprene, which are dominant in remote pristine conditions. But interferences in these measurements of unknown origin have also been discovered for some FAGE instruments: using a pre-injector, all ambient OH is removed by fast reaction before entering the FAGE cell, and any remaining OH signal can be attributed to an interference. This technique is now systematically used for FAGE measurements, allowing the reliable quantification of ambient OH concentrations along with the signal due to interference OH. However, the disagreement between modelled and measured high OH concentrations of earlier field campaigns as well as the origin of the now-quantifiable background OH is still not understood. We present in this paper the compelling idea that this interference, and thus the disagreement between model and measurement in earlier field campaigns, might be at least partially due to the unexpected decomposition of a new class of molecule, ROOOH, within the FAGE instruments. This idea is based on experiments, obtained with the FAGE set-up of the University of Lille, and supported by a modelling study. Even though the occurrence of this interference will be highly dependent on the design and measurement conditions of different FAGE instruments, including ROOOH in atmospheric chemistry models might reflect a missing piece of the puzzle in our understanding of OH in clean atmospheres. </jats:p

WRF-Chem model predictions of the regional impacts of N2O5 heterogeneous processes on night-time chemistry over north-western Europe

Abstract. Chemical modelling studies have been conducted over north-western Europe in summer conditions, showing that night-time dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5) heterogeneous reactive uptake is important regionally in modulating particulate nitrate and has a~modest influence on oxidative chemistry. Results from Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulations, run with a detailed volatile organic compound (VOC) gas-phase chemistry scheme and the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) sectional aerosol scheme, were compared with a series of airborne gas and particulate measurements made over the UK in July 2010. Modelled mixing ratios of key gas-phase species were reasonably accurate (correlations with measurements of 0.7–0.9 for NO2 and O3). However modelled loadings of particulate species were less accurate (correlation with measurements for particulate sulfate and ammonium were between 0.0 and 0.6). Sulfate mass loadings were particularly low (modelled means of 0.5–0.7 μg kg−1air, compared with measurements of 1.0–1.5 μg kg−1air). Two flights from the campaign were used as test cases – one with low relative humidity (RH) (60–70%), the other with high RH (80–90%). N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry was found to not be important in the low-RH test case; but in the high-RH test case it had a strong effect and significantly improved the agreement between modelled and measured NO3 and N2O5. When the model failed to capture atmospheric RH correctly, the modelled NO3 and N2O5 mixing ratios for these flights differed significantly from the measurements. This demonstrates that, for regional modelling which involves heterogeneous processes, it is essential to capture the ambient temperature and water vapour profiles. The night-time NO3 oxidation of VOCs across the whole region was found to be 100–300 times slower than the daytime OH oxidation of these compounds. The difference in contribution was less for alkenes (× 80) and comparable for dimethylsulfide (DMS). However the suppression of NO3 mixing ratios across the domain by N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry has only a very slight, negative, influence on this oxidative capacity. The influence on regional particulate nitrate mass loadings is stronger. Night-time N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry maintains the production of particulate nitrate within polluted regions: when this process is taken into consideration, the daytime peak (for the 95th percentile) of PM10 nitrate mass loadings remains around 5.6 μg kg−1air, but the night-time minimum increases from 3.5 to 4.6 μg kg−1air. The sustaining of higher particulate mass loadings through the night by this process improves model skill at matching measured aerosol nitrate diurnal cycles and will negatively impact on regional air quality, requiring this process to be included in regional models. This work was supported by the NERC RONOCO project NE/F004656/1. S. Archer-Nicholls was supported by a NERC quota studentship.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared at http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/1385/2015/acp-15-1385-2015.pd

Chemistry-driven changes strongly influence climate forcing from vegetation emissions

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) affect climate via changes to aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI), ozone and methane. BVOCs exhibit dependence on climate (causing a feedback) and land use but there remains uncertainty in their net climatic impact. One factor is the description of BVOC chemistry. Here, using the earth-system model UKESM1, we quantify chemistry’s influence by comparing the response to doubling BVOC emissions in the pre-industrial with standard and state-of-science chemistry. The net forcing (feedback) is positive: ozone and methane increases and ACI changes outweigh enhanced aerosol scattering. Contrary to prior studies, the ACI response is driven by cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) reductions from suppression of gas-phase SO2 oxidation. With state-of-science chemistry the feedback is 43% smaller as lower oxidant depletion yields smaller methane increases and CDNC decreases. This illustrates chemistry’s significant influence on BVOC’s climatic impact and the more complex pathways by which BVOCs influence climate than currently recognised

Sources of surface O3 in the UK: Tagging O3 within WRF-Chem

Tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations depend on a combination of hemispheric, regional, and local-scale processes. Estimates of how much O3 is produced locally vs. transported from further afield are essential in air quality management and regulatory policies. Here, a tagged-ozone mechanism within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to quantify the contributions to surface O3 in the UK from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from inside and outside the UK during May–August 2015. The contribution of the different source regions to three regulatory O3 metrics is also examined. It is shown that model simulations predict the concentration and spatial distribution of surface O3 with a domain-wide mean bias of −3.7 ppbv. Anthropogenic NOx emissions from the UK and Europe account for 13 % and 16 %, respectively, of the monthly mean surface O3 in the UK, as the majority (71 %) of O3 originates from the hemispheric background. Hemispheric O3 contributes the most to concentrations in the north and the west of the UK with peaks in May, whereas European and UK contributions are most significant in the east, south-east, and London, i.e. the UK's most populated areas, intensifying towards June and July. Moreover, O3 from European sources is generally transported to the UK rather than produced in situ. It is demonstrated that more stringent emission controls over continental Europe, particularly in western Europe, would be necessary to improve the health-related metric MDA8 O3 above 50 and 60 ppbv. Emission controls over larger areas, such as the Northern Hemisphere, are instead required to lessen the impacts on ecosystems as quantified by the AOT40 metric

Development, intercomparison, and evaluation of an improved mechanism for the oxidation of dimethyl sulfide in the UKCA model

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is an important trace gas emitted from the ocean. The oxidation of DMS has long been recognised as being important for global climate through the role DMS plays in setting the sulfate aerosol background in the troposphere. However, the mechanisms in which DMS is oxidised are very complex and have proved elusive to accurately determine in spite of decades of research. As a result the representation of DMS oxidation in global chemistry–climate models is often greatly simplified. Recent field observations and laboratory and ab initio studies have prompted renewed efforts in understanding the DMS oxidation mechanism, with implications for constraining the uncertainty in the oxidation mechanism of DMS as incorporated in global chemistry–climate models. Here we build on recent evidence and develop a new DMS mechanism for inclusion in the UK Chemistry Aerosol (UKCA) chemistry–climate model. We compare our new mechanism (CS2-HPMTF) to a number of existing mechanisms used in UKCA (including the highly simplified three-reactions–two-species mechanism used in CMIP6 studies with the model) and to a range of recently developed mechanisms reported in the literature through a series of global and box model experiments. Global model runs with the new mechanism enable us to simulate the global distribution of hydroperoxylmethyl thioformate (HPMTF), which we calculate to have a burden of 2.6–26 Gg S (in good agreement with the literature range of 0.7–18 Gg S). We show that the sinks of HPMTF dominate uncertainty in the budget, not the rate of the isomerisation reaction forming it and that, based on the observed DMS / HPMTF ratio from the global surveys during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography mission (ATom), rapid cloud uptake of HPMTF worsens the model–observation comparison. Our box model experiments highlight that there is significant variance in simulated secondary oxidation products from DMS across mechanisms used in the literature, with significant divergence in the sensitivity of the rates of formation of these products to temperature exhibited; especially for methane sulfonic acid (MSA). Our global model studies show that our updated DMS scheme performs better than the current scheme used in UKCA when compared against a suite of surface and aircraft observations. However, sensitivity studies underscore the need for further laboratory and observational constraints. In particular our results suggest that as a priority long-term DMS observations be made to better constrain the highly uncertain inputs into the system and that laboratory studies be performed that address (1) the uptake of HPMTF onto aerosol surfaces and the products of this reaction and (2) the kinetics and products of the following reactions: CH3SO3 decomposition, CH3S + O2, CH3SOO decomposition, and CH3SO + O3.</p

Development, intercomparison, and evaluation of an improved mechanism for the oxidation of dimethyl sulfide in the UKCA model

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is an important trace gas emitted from the ocean. The oxidation of DMS has long been recognised as being important for global climate through the role DMS plays in setting the sulfate aerosol background in the troposphere. However, the mechanisms in which DMS is oxidised are very complex and have proved elusive to accurately determine in spite of decades of research. As a result the representation of DMS oxidation in global chemistry–climate models is often greatly simplified. Recent field observations and laboratory and ab initio studies have prompted renewed efforts in understanding the DMS oxidation mechanism, with implications for constraining the uncertainty in the oxidation mechanism of DMS as incorporated in global chemistry–climate models. Here we build on recent evidence and develop a new DMS mechanism for inclusion in the UK Chemistry Aerosol (UKCA) chemistry–climate model. We compare our new mechanism (CS2-HPMTF) to a number of existing mechanisms used in UKCA (including the highly simplified three-reactions–two-species mechanism used in CMIP6 studies with the model) and to a range of recently developed mechanisms reported in the literature through a series of global and box model experiments. Global model runs with the new mechanism enable us to simulate the global distribution of hydroperoxylmethyl thioformate (HPMTF), which we calculate to have a burden of 2.6–26 Gg S (in good agreement with the literature range of 0.7–18 Gg S). We show that the sinks of HPMTF dominate uncertainty in the budget, not the rate of the isomerisation reaction forming it and that, based on the observed DMS / HPMTF ratio from the global surveys during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography mission (ATom), rapid cloud uptake of HPMTF worsens the model–observation comparison. Our box model experiments highlight that there is significant variance in simulated secondary oxidation products from DMS across mechanisms used in the literature, with significant divergence in the sensitivity of the rates of formation of these products to temperature exhibited; especially for methane sulfonic acid (MSA). Our global model studies show that our updated DMS scheme performs better than the current scheme used in UKCA when compared against a suite of surface and aircraft observations. However, sensitivity studies underscore the need for further laboratory and observational constraints. In particular our results suggest that as a priority long-term DMS observations be made to better constrain the highly uncertain inputs into the system and that laboratory studies be performed that address (1) the uptake of HPMTF onto aerosol surfaces and the products of this reaction and (2) the kinetics and products of the following reactions: CH3SO3 decomposition, CH3S + O2, CH3SOO decomposition, and CH3SO + O3