Time Series Forecasting: An Application to Balance Sheet

Internship Report presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced Analytics, specialization in Data ScienceThe Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) provides a qualitative and quantitative assessment of capital risks to which banking institutions are exposed to in their activity. Caixa Geral de Dep´ositos (CGD) is a relevant player in the Portuguese banking system, and as such it has to perform an ongoing review of ICAAP exercise to evaluate its ability to identify, assess, mitigate and report on its risks. In order to properly quantify all the risks the institution is exposed to, several models need to be developed to help estimate the amount of capital that is needed to cover potential unexpected losses arising from each type of risk. Given the European and Portuguese guidelines these models also have to comply with certain requirements defined by Banco de Portugal, European Central Bank (ECB) and European Banking Authority (EBA) regarding ICAAP exercise. One of the risks CGD is exposed to is the risk of an unfavourable evolution of the main credit items in its Balance Sheet and as such, it is necessary to estimate the evolution of certain credit items (in terms of their volumes and spread rates). These estimations are needed for relevant segments such as housing credit, consumer and other credit, public sector credit, real estate activities credit, non-financial corporate credit and term and sight deposits. To estimate the evolution of these balance sheet items, a robust and reliable methodology must be applied, so that it can truly help strategic decision-making process over a horizon period of three years and the appropriate amount of capital can be allocated. At CGD, Balance Sheet credit volumes and spread rates had been being estimated through multiple linear regressions to which macroeconomic indicators are added as explanatory variables. The problem with this methodology, is that these type of dependent and explanatory financial variables are usually in the form of time series, indicating the existence of correlation between any observation and the previous one, meaning that there is dependence on the past historical information. Applying multiple linear regressions to this type of data leads to poor statistical results and to the non-compliance of all the statistical assumptions linear regressions must respect. Within this context, the need to turn to a more adequate and robust methodology became more evident and time series forecasting appeared to be the so long needed solution that would allow to reach reliable statistical results. Time series forecasting is commonly used in economics and finance, denoting a robust technique to predict macroeconomic variables representing a feasible approach to apply to estimate CGD’s main credit volumes and spread rates of the balance sheet. In this project, we investigate the estimation of Balance Sheet credit volumes and spreads rates using time series forecasting aiming to assess the models suitability to quantify the risk of unfavourable balance sheet evolution of the main credit segments. The models proposed for this purpose, are the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) models. The results obtained proved to have robust statistical results and high performance, which were verified by analysing residuals statistical behaviour and key performance indicators such as the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of the final models selected for each target variable

Influencia del aceite esencial de orégano en la elaboración tradicional de quesos: Efecto sobre el fermento láctico

The aim of this work is to study the oregano essential oil (OEO) composition from Northwestern Argentinean regions and to evaluate its effect on the lactic starter cultures. The oregano used, Origanum vulgare var hirtum, was obtained from Andalgalá, Catamarca. The essential oil presented high amounts of α-terpinene (10%), γ-terpinene (15.1%), terpinen- 4-ol (15.5%) and thymol (13.0%) as the main components. No negative effect on growth or metabolic activity of lactic acid bacteria Streptococcus thermophilus CRL 728 and CRL 813, Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp. bulgaricus CRL 656 and CRL 468, and Lactococcus lactis subsp. lactis CRL 597 up to the maximum concentration (200 μg/g) assayed was observed. No differ-ences in the organoleptic characteristics of semi-hard cheeses flavored with oregano essential oil (200 μg/g) and homemade cheeses flavored with oregano leaves were found. With respect to the microbiological quality of the products, neither enterobacteria nor mold and yeast were detected during ripening in essential-oil flavored cheese compared to control cheese (enter-obacteria 2 × 103 UFC/g) and cheese flavored with oregano leaves (mold/yeast 4 × 104 CFU/g). Our results showed that the use of oregano essential oil and lactic starter culture considerably improved cheese quality.Fil: Marcial, Guillermo Emilio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucuman. Centro de Referencia Para Lactobacilos; ArgentinaFil: Gerez, Carla Luciana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucuman. Centro de Referencia Para Lactobacilos; ArgentinaFil: Nuñez, Martha Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucuman. Centro de Referencia Para Lactobacilos; ArgentinaFil: Coll Araoz, Maria Victoria. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Bioquímica, Química y Farmacia; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Schuff, Carola. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Bioquímica, Química y Farmacia; ArgentinaFil: Font, Graciela Maria. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Bioquímica, Química y Farmacia; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucuman. Centro de Referencia Para Lactobacilos; Argentin

El Árbol de las venas propias las novelas de Tomás González de primero estaba el mar a la luz difícil

Magíster en LiteraturaMaestrí

El cine poético: definiciones y problemas. Notas de una puesta en escena

Sin resume

The casa colorada formation at the Quebrada de Moya (cambrian-ordovician): contributions to the chronostratigraphy of a classical locality in the cordillera oriental of Jujuy (argentina)

La Formación Casa Colorada constituye una potente secuencia silicoclástica aflorante en el sector medio de la quebrada de Humahuaca en la provincia de Jujuy. La misma posee un destacado contenido fosilífero representado por trilobites, conodontes, braquiópodos, equinodermos, trazas fósiles y palinomorfos, que han permitido más allá de algunas discusiones puntuales, su correcto posicionamiento cronoestratigráfico en el Cambro-Ordovícico. Esta unidad fue formalmente definida en la década de 1960 en base a una nominación informal de los años 50. El incremento de tareas geológicas sistemáticas en la comarca durante los últimos años ha generado la creación y uso de diferentes nominaciones, tanto formales como informales, que si bien estaban dirigidas a clarificar el marco estratigráfico de la secuencia, han generado algunas inconsistencias en la literatura. Esta contribución propone un marco de ordenamiento para dicha situación, y presenta datos palinológicos en los afloramientos de la Formación Casa Colorada en la quebrada de Moya (Angosto de Chucalezna). La misma, en sus niveles superiores se ve representada por Buedingiisphaeridium tremadocum Rasul, Cymatiogalea cristata medio de la quebrada de Humahuaca en la provincia de Jujuy. La misma posee un destacado contenido fosilífero representado por trilobites, conodontes, braquiópodos, equinodermos, trazas fósiles y palinomorfos, que han permitido más allá de algunas discusiones puntuales, su correcto posicionamiento cronoestratigráfico en el Cambro-Ordovícico. Esta unidad fue formalmente definida en la década de 1960 en base a una nominación informal de los años 50. El incremento de tareas geológicas sistemáticas en la comarca durante los últimos años ha generado la creación y uso de diferentes nominaciones, tanto formales como informales, que si bien estaban dirigidas a clarificar el marco estratigráfico de la secuencia, han generado algunas inconsistencias en la literatura.The Casa Colorada Formation is represented by a thick siliciclastic sequence that crops out in the mid-sector of the Quebrada de Humahuaca, Jujuy Province. Trilobites, conodonts, brachiopods, echinoderms, trace fossils and pa- lynomorphs are recorded in the strata and allowed, with some minor differences, to a general chronostrati- graphic understanding of the Cambrian-Ordovician transition in the region. The Casa Colorada Formation was formally defined in the 1960 ́s on the basis of an informal nomination done in the 1950 ́s. During the last years, an increasing amount of publications in the area leaded to the creation, use and missuse of stratigraphic nomi- nations, generating some inconsitencies in the literature. This contribution proposes a new stratigraphycal frame for the above mentioned situation, and presents palynological data for the Casa Colorada Formation that crops out at Quebrada de Moya in Chucalezna. Early Ordovician acritarchs include Buedingiisphaeridium tremadocum Rasul, Cymatiogalea cristata (Downie) Rauscher, C. membranispina Deunff, Dasydiacrodium tremadocum (Gorka) Tongiorgi in Bagnoli et al., Polygonium symbolum Rasul, Saharidia downie Combaz, Solisphaeredium akrochordum (Rasul) Moczydlowska y Stockfors, S. lucidum (Deunff) Turner, and Vulcanisphaera britannica Rasul, among the most important forms recorded in the upper levels of the unit, and represents the earliest Tremadocian associa- tion in the South American Central Andean BasinFil: Vergel, Maria del Milagro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Correlación Geológica. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo. Departamento de Geología. Cátedra Geología Estructural. Instituto Superior de Correlación Geológica; ArgentinaFil: Araoz, Lucia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Correlación Geológica. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo. Departamento de Geología. Cátedra Geología Estructural. Instituto Superior de Correlación Geológica; ArgentinaFil: Aceñolaza, Guillermo Federico. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto Superior de Correlación Geológica. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo. Departamento de Geología. Cátedra Geología Estructural. Instituto Superior de Correlación Geológica; Argentin

El Árbol de las venas propias las novelas de Tomás González de primero estaba el mar a la luz difícil

Magíster en LiteraturaMaestrí

The Settlement History of the Lucre Basin (Cusco, Peru)

This article reports the results of archaeological survey from Oropesa to Andahuayllilas, Peru

Habilidades sociales y ansiedad en adolescentes

El presente trabajo pretendió explorar la posible existencia de relaciones, entre las habilidades sociales y los niveles de ansiedad, existente en un grupo de adolescentes, estudiantes de los últimos años del secundario, de entre 15 y 17 años de edad. Las hipótesis que guiaron esta investigación fueron: A mayor habilidad social, menor nivel de ansiedad; A menor habilidad social, mayor nivel de ansiedad. A partir de estas hipótesis, se plantearon los siguientes objetivos: evaluar las habilidades sociales en los adolescentes; Evaluar el grado de ansiedad; Describir los niveles de ansiedad de tipo cognitivo, fisiológico y motor. Analizar la relación entre los sujetos que han obtenido elevados puntajes en la escala de habilidades sociales y el nivel de ansiedad. La muestra fue de carácter intencional, no probabilística, y estuvo conformada por 50 adolescentes de entre 15 y 17 años. Para llevar a cabo los objetivos y comprobar las hipótesis de esta tesina, se administraron los siguientes instrumentos de evaluación psicológica: Escala de habilidades sociales (EHS) de Gismero González (2010): para evaluar las habilidades sociales; y el Inventario de Situaciones y Respuestas de Ansiedad (ISRA) de Miguel Tobal y Cano Vindel (1997): para evaluar la ansiedad, y los niveles de ansiedad de tipo cognitivo, fisiológico y motor. El análisis estadístico se llevó a cabo, mediante el paquete estadístico SPSS, versión 19 para Windows. Para someter a prueba las hipótesis, se aplicó una correlación de Pearson. A partir de los resultados, se concluyó que existe una correlación levemente significativa, entre las variables, es decir, que a medida que aumentan las puntuaciones de habilidades sociales, los niveles de ansiedad disminuyen. Al tratarse de una muestra no probabilística, las conclusiones que derivan de este trabajo no pueden ser generalizadas a toda la población, sino que son válidas, solo para aquellos sujetos que participaron de la investigación.The aim of this project was to explore if there is any relationship between the social skills and the existent level of anxiety in a group of adolescents, who are attending the last years of formal education. They are between 15 and 17 years old. The hypotheses that support this investigation were: Higher scores in social skills, lower anxiety level. Lower scores in social skills, higher anxiety level. These hypotheses derived into the following objectives: To evaluate social skills in teenagers To evaluate the level of anxiety. To describe the cognitive, physical and motor level of anxiety. To analyze the existent relationship of those students who obtained high scores in social skills and their level of anxiety. The reference sample was intentional, nonprobability sampling and it was made up by 50 adolescents from 15 to 17 years old. To achieve the mentioned objectives and to prove the hypotheses of this work, the following psychological instruments were used. Escala de habilidades sociales (EHS) de Gismero González (2010): to evaluate social skills. Inventario de Situaciones y respuestas de ansiedad (ISRA) de Miguel Tobal y Cano Vindel (1997): to evaluate anxiety level as well as the cognitive, physical and motor level. The statistical analysis was carried out through the statistic package SPSS 19 version for Windows. To check the hypotheses Pearson was applied. The obtained results show that there is a slight relationship between the proposed variables that is to say that with higher scores in social skills, the anxiety level is lower. Since it was a nonprobability sampling, the results can not be applied to everybody. They can be applied only to the people who participate in this investigation.Fil: Araoz, Carina Alejandr