Application of control methods for modelling the flow of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica

The distribution of basal traction on a transect along Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, is estimated by inverting observed surface velocities using a control method and a simple numerical stream-flow model. This model calculates the horizontal flow along a transect, based on the assumptions that the horizontal flow is independent of ice depth and that the driving stresses are balanced by resistive forces at the glacier bed and margin and by gradients in longitudinal stress. Basal traction is assumed to be linearly related to the basal velocity. For the lateral shear traction a parameterization based on an inversion of Glen's flow law is used. The application of the control method allows us to calculate the set of model parameters (e.g. the basal friction coefficient) that gives the best fit between modelled and observed surface velocities. The model is used to investigate the stress regime of Pine Island Glacier, in particular to estimate the importance of basal, lateral and longitudinal stresses relative to each other. In the flat region just behind the grounding line, basal drag, lateral drag and the longitudinal stress gradient are the same order of magnitude. In the steep region up-glacier from the grounding line, the driving stresses are highest and balanced predominantly by basal resistive stresses. Further upstream, in the trunk of the glacier, lateral and basal drag predominate

Reconstructing ice-sheet accumulation rates at ridge B, East Antarctica

Understanding how ice sheets responded to past climate change is fundamental to forecasting how they will respond in the future. Numerical models calculating the evolution of ice sheets depend upon accumulation data, which are principally available from ice cores. Here, we calculate past rates of ice accumulation using internal layering. The englacial structure of the East Antarctic ice divide at ridge B is extracted from airborne ice-penetrating radar. The isochronous surfaces are dated at their intersection with the Vostok ice-core site, where the depth–age relationship is known. The dated isochrons are used as input to a one-dimensional ice-flow model to investigate the spatial accumulation distribution. The calculations show that ice-accumulation rates generally increase from Vostok lake towards ridge B. The western flank of the ice divide experiences markedly more accumulation than in the east. Further, ice accumulation increases northwards along the ice divide. The results also show the variability of accumulation in time and space around the ridge B ice divide over the last 124 000 years

Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ice shelf collapse is explored with a high resolution ice sheet model. Rapid melting is applied to each of its major present day drainage basins in turn , to determine which parts of the ice sheet are most vulnerable to change in oceanic forcing, over the next 1000 years. We findthat West Antarctica can be largely deglaciated over a millenium, leading to more than two metres of sea level rise, if any of its major ice shelved disintegrated. The response of East Antarctica is more muted, but not negligible

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance activity in the United Kingdom: a survey on behalf of the british society of cardiovascular magnetic resonance

<p>Background: The indications, complexity and capabilities of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) have rapidly expanded. Whether actual service provision and training have developed in parallel is unknown.</p> <p>Methods: We undertook a systematic telephone and postal survey of all public hospitals on behalf of the British Society of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance to identify all CMR providers within the United Kingdom.</p> <p>Results: Of the 60 CMR centres identified, 88% responded to a detailed questionnaire. Services are led by cardiologists and radiologists in equal proportion, though the majority of current trainees are cardiologists. The mean number of CMR scans performed annually per centre increased by 44% over two years. This trend was consistent across centres of different scanning volumes. The commonest indication for CMR was assessment of heart failure and cardiomyopathy (39%), followed by coronary artery disease and congenital heart disease. There was striking geographical variation in CMR availability, numbers of scans performed, and distribution of trainees. Centres without on site scanning capability refer very few patients for CMR. Just over half of centres had a formal training programme, and few performed regular audit.</p> <p>Conclusion: The number of CMR scans performed in the UK has increased dramatically in just two years. Trainees are mainly located in large volume centres and enrolled in cardiology as opposed to radiology training programmes.</p&gt

Buoyant forces promote tidewater glacier iceberg calving through large basal stress concentrations

Iceberg calving parameterisations currently implemented in ice sheet models do not reproduce the full observed range of calving behaviours. For example, though buoyant forces at the ice front are known to trigger full-depth calving events on major Greenland outlet glaciers, a multi-stage iceberg calving event at Jakobshavn Isbr&aelig; is unexplained by existing models. To explain this and similar events, we propose a notch-triggered rotation mechanism, whereby a relatively small subaerial calving event triggers a larger full-depth calving event due to the abrupt increase in buoyant load and the associated stresses generated at the ice&ndash;bed interface. We investigate the notch-triggered rotation mechanism by applying a geometric perturbation to the subaerial section of the calving front in a diagnostic flow-line model of an idealised glacier snout, using the full-Stokes, finite element method code Elmer/Ice. Different sliding laws and water pressure boundary conditions are applied at the ice&ndash;bed interface. Water pressure has a big influence on the likelihood of calving, and stress concentrations large enough to open crevasses were generated in basal ice. Significantly, the location of stress concentrations produced calving events of approximately the size observed, providing support for future application of the notch-triggered rotation mechanism in ice-sheet models.</p

Testing peatland testate amoeba transfer functions: Appropriate methods for clustered training-sets

Transfer functions are widely used in palaeoecology to infer past environmental conditions from fossil remains of many groups of organisms. In contrast to traditional training-set design with one observation per site, some training-sets, including those for peatland testate amoeba-hydrology transfer functions, have a clustered structure with many observations from each site. Here we show that this clustered design causes standard performance statistics to be overly optimistic. Model performance when applied to independent data sets is considerably weaker than suggested by statistical cross-validation. We discuss the reasons for these problems and describe leave-one-site-out cross-validation and the cluster bootstrap as appropriate methods for clustered training-sets. Using these methods we show that the performance of most testate amoeba-hydrology transfer functions is worse than previously assumed and reconstructions are more uncertain

What is different about living alone with cancer in older age? A qualitative study of experiences and preferences for care

Background: Increasing numbers of older patients with advanced cancer live alone but there is little research on how well health services meet their needs. The aim of this study was to compare the experiences and future preferences for care between two groups of older people with cancer in their last year of life; those who live alone, and those who live with co-resident carers. Methods: In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with 32 people aged between 70 and 95 years who were living with cancer. They were recruited from general practices and hospice day care, when the responsible health professional answered no to the question, of whether they would be surprised if the patient died within twelve months. Twenty participants lived alone. Interviews were recorded and transcribed and the data analysed using a Framework approach, focussing on the differences and commonalities between the two groups. Results: Many experiences were common to all participants, but had broader consequences for people who lived alone. Five themes are presented from the data: a perception that it is a disadvantage to live alone as a patient, the importance of relational continuity with health professionals, informal appraisal of care, place of care and future plans. People who lived alone perceived emotional and practical barriers to accessing care, and many shared an anxiety that they would have to move into a care home. Participants were concerned with remaining life, and all who lived alone had made plans for death but not for dying. Uncertainty of timescales and a desire to wait until they knew that death was imminent were some of the reasons given for not planning for future care needs. Conclusions: Older people who live alone with cancer have emotional and practical concerns that are overlooked by their professional carers. Discussion and planning for the future, along with continuity in primary care may hold the key to enhancing end-of-life care for this group of patients