Particles and the Perversely Philosophical Schoolchild: Rigid Designation, Haecceitism and Statistics

In this paper, I want to draw attention to a connection between rigid designation with its consequence that we are able to stipulate worlds and haecceitism, the doctrine that we have possible worlds alike in all qualitative features which nonetheless are metaphysically different, in that two individuals can have all their qualitative features swapped while remaining the same individuals. I shall argue that stipulation leads to haecceitism, which in turn depends upon commitment to haecceity ("primitive thisness"). Haecceitism is, I claim, an unattractive doctrine, but there is one powerful argument for it, drawn from the desire to make sense of observed frequencies of probabilistic events in terms of possible configurations of phase spaces which may be taken to be a form of possible world. However, by paying close attention to classical and quantum statistics, we see that this argument fails

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013–14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean–atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013–14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013–14

Tropical influences on European summer climate variability

Numerous studies have established a link between tropical atmospheric conditions and northern midlatitude circulation mediated by Rossby wave propagation in winter. In recent years, research has also investigated tropical to midlatitude teleconnections in northern hemisphere summer. In this paper, we examine summer connections further by imposing observed tropical conditions in climate model simulations. We examine resulting changes in the representation of seasonal mean surface climate variables and mid-troposphere circulation in the northern hemisphere summer, identifying regions where model fidelity improves following the imposition of tropical conditions. We demonstrate robust connections between the tropics and mid-latitudes on the seasonal timescale, with these connections apparent in three mid-latitude regions, namely eastern North America, central Europe and northern Siberia. These regions are shown to be impacted by wave trains originating in specific regions of the subtropics associated with patterns of upper-level convergence. The results provide a clearer picture of tropical to extratropical teleconnections that affect summer mean climate in the northern midlatitudes

Tropical Forcing of Barents‐Kara Sea Ice During Autumn

Abstract The causality of the link between Autumn Barents‐Kara (BK) sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is uncertain, given teleconnections stemming from the tropics may influence both the extra‐tropics and the Arctic. We explore the relationship between tropical rainfall and BK sea ice in autumn, by nudging the tropics to follow observed variability in otherwise free running ensemble simulations. Tropical forcing alone can skillfully reproduce a significant fraction of observed interannual NAO variability in late autumn. We also show that interannual variability in the NAO is strongly related to simulated BK sea ice. As a result, we are able to reproduce some of the observed link between tropical rainfall and autumn BK sea ice. However, only during the strong 1997 El Niño are clear tropical influences at high latitudes found. Large ensembles and strong tropical forcing are required to detect tropical forced variability in models at high latitudes

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013–14

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013–14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean–atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013–14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013–14

Deep Learning Algorithm for Automated Cardiac Murmur Detection via a Digital Stethoscope Platform.

Background Clinicians vary markedly in their ability to detect murmurs during cardiac auscultation and identify the underlying pathological features. Deep learning approaches have shown promise in medicine by transforming collected data into clinically significant information. The objective of this research is to assess the performance of a deep learning algorithm to detect murmurs and clinically significant valvular heart disease using recordings from a commercial digital stethoscope platform. Methods and Results Using >34 hours of previously acquired and annotated heart sound recordings, we trained a deep neural network to detect murmurs. To test the algorithm, we enrolled 962 patients in a clinical study and collected recordings at the 4 primary auscultation locations. Ground truth was established using patient echocardiograms and annotations by 3 expert cardiologists. Algorithm performance for detecting murmurs has sensitivity and specificity of 76.3% and 91.4%, respectively. By omitting softer murmurs, those with grade 1 intensity, sensitivity increased to 90.0%. Application of the algorithm at the appropriate anatomic auscultation location detected moderate-to-severe or greater aortic stenosis, with sensitivity of 93.2% and specificity of 86.0%, and moderate-to-severe or greater mitral regurgitation, with sensitivity of 66.2% and specificity of 94.6%. Conclusions The deep learning algorithm's ability to detect murmurs and clinically significant aortic stenosis and mitral regurgitation is comparable to expert cardiologists based on the annotated subset of our database. The findings suggest that such algorithms would have utility as front-line clinical support tools to aid clinicians in screening for cardiac murmurs caused by valvular heart disease. Registration URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov; Unique Identifier: NCT03458806

MyD88 and TLR4 Expression in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

To evaluate myeloid differentiation primary response gene 88 (MyD88) and Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) expression in relation to clinical features of epithelial ovarian cancer, histologic subtypes, and overall survival. We conducted centralized immunohistochemical staining, semi-quantitative scoring, and survival analysis in 5263 patients participating in the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. Patients were diagnosed between January 1, 1978, and December 31, 2014, including 2865 high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSOCs), with more than 12,000 person-years of follow-up time. Tissue microarrays were stained for MyD88 and TLR4, and staining intensity was classified using a 2-tiered system for each marker (weak vs strong). Expression of MyD88 and TLR4 was similar in all histotypes except clear cell ovarian cancer, which showed reduced expression compared with other histotypes (P<.001 for both). In HGSOC, strong MyD88 expression was modestly associated with shortened overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.26; P=.04) but was also associated with advanced stage (P<.001). The expression of TLR4 was not associated with survival. In low-grade serous ovarian cancer (LGSOC), strong expression of both MyD88 and TLR4 was associated with favorable survival (HR [95% CI], 0.49 [0.29-0.84] and 0.44 [0.21-0.89], respectively; P=.009 and P=.02, respectively). Results are consistent with an association between strong MyD88 staining and advanced stage and poorer survival in HGSOC and demonstrate correlation between strong MyD88 and TLR4 staining and improved survival in LGSOC, highlighting the biological differences between the 2 serous histotypes

MyD88 and TLR4 Expression in epithelial ovarian cancer

Objective: To evaluate myeloid differentiation primary response gene 88 (MyD88) and Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) expression in relation to clinical features of epithelial ovarian cancer, histologic subtypes, and overall survival. Patients and Methods: We conducted centralized immunohistochemical staining, semi-quantitative scoring, and survival analysis in 5263 patients participating in the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. Patients were diagnosed between January 1, 1978, and December 31, 2014, including 2865 high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSOCs), with more than 12,000 person-years of follow-up time. Tissue microarrays were stained for MyD88 and TLR4, and staining intensity was classified using a 2-tiered system for each marker (weak vs strong). Results: Expression of MyD88 and TLR4 was similar in all histotypes except clear cell ovarian cancer, which showed reduced expression compared with other histotypes (P<.001 for both). In HGSOC, strong MyD88 expression was modestly associated with shortened overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.26; P=.04) but was also associated with advanced stage (P<.001). The expression of TLR4 was not associated with survival. In low-grade serous ovarian cancer (LGSOC), strong expression of both MyD88 and TLR4 was associated with favorable survival (HR [95% CI], 0.49 [0.29-0.84] and 0.44 [0.21-0.89], respectively; P=.009 and P=.02, respectively). Conclusion: Results are consistent with an association between strong MyD88 staining and advanced stage and poorer survival in HGSOC and demonstrate correlation between strong MyD88 and TLR4 staining and improved survival in LGSOC, highlighting the biological differences between the 2 serous histotypes

MyD88 and TLR4 Expression in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

To evaluate myeloid differentiation primary response gene 88 (MyD88) and Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) expression in relation to clinical features of epithelial ovarian cancer, histologic subtypes, and overall survival. We conducted centralized immunohistochemical staining, semi-quantitative scoring, and survival analysis in 5263 patients participating in the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. Patients were diagnosed between January 1, 1978, and December 31, 2014, including 2865 high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSOCs), with more than 12,000 person-years of follow-up time. Tissue microarrays were stained for MyD88 and TLR4, and staining intensity was classified using a 2-tiered system for each marker (weak vs strong). Expression of MyD88 and TLR4 was similar in all histotypes except clear cell ovarian cancer, which showed reduced expression compared with other histotypes (P<.001 for both). In HGSOC, strong MyD88 expression was modestly associated with shortened overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.26; P=.04) but was also associated with advanced stage (P<.001). The expression of TLR4 was not associated with survival. In low-grade serous ovarian cancer (LGSOC), strong expression of both MyD88 and TLR4 was associated with favorable survival (HR [95% CI], 0.49 [0.29-0.84] and 0.44 [0.21-0.89], respectively; P=.009 and P=.02, respectively). Results are consistent with an association between strong MyD88 staining and advanced stage and poorer survival in HGSOC and demonstrate correlation between strong MyD88 and TLR4 staining and improved survival in LGSOC, highlighting the biological differences between the 2 serous histotypes