The Valence Side of the EU: EU Issue Voting in the Aftermath of the Eurozone Crisis

In the aftermath of the Euro crisis, EU issues have increasingly affected electoral behaviour, explaining a sizable shift in votes from the Europhile to Eurosceptic parties. This paper advances the argument that EU issue voting is not entirely encompassed in a divisive (pro-/anti-) EU dimension, testing the hypothesis that a EU valence voting is currently conditioning electoral behaviour. In particular, we posit that voters support parties evaluating their credibility in achieving not only EU positional goals (‘leave/remain’ in the EU), but also EU valence ones (i.e., making the country count more in Europe). Furthermore, we assess which parties – pro-/anti-EU – are more likely to be supported on the basis of this valence issue. Based on survey data from France (2017) and Italy (2018), we found that the EU valence issue is an important voting predictor, with pro-EU parties mainly benefitting from it

Disconnected? Public Opinion, Economic Elites, and Political Parties during the Migration Crisis

This article analyses whether European political parties were responsive to the policy preferences of citizens and economic elites over immigration during the migration crisis. To do so, it derives hypotheses from the scholarly literature on party responsiveness and tests them on survey data collected in 2016 and 2017 from among voters, political parties, and economic elites in 10 different EU member states. Contrary to the widespread belief about the crisis of contemporary representative democracies, the article shows that political parties’ positions on immigration changed consistently with changes in public opinion. On the contrary, the article finds no significant relation between the positions of economic elites and those of political parties. These empirical results are particularly relevant for the study of democratic representation, as they challenge the widespread assumption about the crisis of contemporary representative democracies

Beyond the migration crisis, deep values. Where does hostility to immigrants come from?

3noopenImmigration has become a key issue in electoral competition in Italy. Several studies have demonstrated the weight of immigration on voting choices of Italian voters, as well as the importance that this issue has had for the electoral success of certain parties, namely the League. However, it is still unclear why voters are mobilized on this issue and, more generally, what are the underlying factors of individual attitudes towards migrants. In this paper we explore whether and to what extent these attitudes are the result of latent cultural factors, which find their roots in long-standing and deeper value predispositions. We do so, relying on an original survey carried out among Italian citizens and making use of the Schwartz conceptualization and measurement of values. A series of regression analyses demonstrate that, besides conditions of objective economic deprivation, proximity to migrants, and perception of threat and insecurity, values are the most relevant explanatory factors of attitudes towards immigration. This leads us to conclude that hostile attitudes towards immigration are not the result of a radical transformation of public opinion in Italy, but rather the expression of more general, structurally conservative value orientations.openAngelucci, Davide; De Sio, Lorenzo; Paparo, AldoAngelucci, Davide; De Sio, Lorenzo; Paparo, Ald

This time it’s the economy: mapping the issues that produced the German federal election result

What policy issues determined support for parties during the 2021 German federal election? Davide Angelucci, Lorenzo De Sio, Heiko Giebler and Werner Krause present conclusions from an analysis of the key topics that encouraged vote-switching during the campaign. They find the SPD’s victory was mainly driven by its credibility on economic issues

Dataset of Electoral Volatility in the European Parliament elections since 1979

This dataset provides data on electoral volatility and its internal components in the elections for the European Parliament (EP) in all European Union (EU) countries since 1979 or the date of their accession to the Union. It also provides data about electoral volatility for both the class bloc and the demarcation bloc. This dataset will be regularly updated so as to include the next rounds of the European Parliament elections. How to cite this dataset? Emanuele, V., Angelucci, D., Marino, B., Puleo, L., and Vegetti, F. (2019), Dataset of Electoral Volatility in the European Parliament elections since 1979, Rome: Italian Center for Electoral Studies, http://dx.doi.org/10.7802/1905

Why issue-based strategies won’t help Trump win re-election

The US presidential election on 3 November will be watched closely in Europe. Drawing on recent survey evidence, Davide Angelucci, Lorenzo De Sio, Morris P. Fiorina and Mark N. Franklin illuminate the challenge facing Donald Trump in his bid for re-election. There are currently no divisive issues on which Trump stands to win more support from independents and Democrats than he stands to lose from his own support-base, while on issues for which goals are widely shared, Trump lacks credibility compared to Joe Biden

Beyond the Migration Crisis, Deep Values. Where Does Hostility to Immigrants Come from?

Immigration has become a key issue in electoral competition in Italy. Several studies have demonstrated the weight of immigration on voting choices of Italian voters, as well as the importance that this issue has had for the electoral success of certain parties, namely the League. However, it is still unclear why voters are mobilized on this issue and, more generally, what are the underlying factors of individual attitudes towards migrants. In this paper we explore whether and to what extent these attitudes are the result of latent cultural factors, which find their roots in long-standing and deeper value predispositions. We do so, relying on an original survey car-ried out among Italian citizens and making use of the Schwartz conceptualization and measurement of values. A series of regression analyses demonstrate that, besides conditions of objective economic deprivation, prox-imity to migrants, and perception of threat and insecurity, values are the most relevant explanatory factors of attitudes towards immigration. This leads us to conclude that hostile attitudes towards immigration are not the result of a radical transformation of public opinion in Italy, but rather the expression of more general, structur-ally conservative value orientations

Non saranno strategie basate su temi concreti ad aiutare Trump. Ecco perch\ue9

Le elezioni presidenziali americane del 3 novembre saranno seguite dall'Europa con grande intersse. Basandosi su recenti dati di sondaggio originali, Davide Angelucci, Lorenzo De Sio, Morris P. Fiorina e Mark N. Franklin illustrano la sfida che attende Donald Trump nel suo tentativo di rielezione

Formation processes at a high resolution Middle Paleolithic site: Cueva Antón (Murcia, Spain)

Cueva Antón is a Middle Paleolithic rockshelter located in the valley of the River Mula (Murcia, Spain). The archeological investigation of the site, which began with salvage work in 1991, resumed in 2006 and is still ongoing, uncovered a succession spanning most of MIS 3 and MIS 4 (ca. 75e36 ka) and featuring a well preserved human occupation record. This paper presents the first information about site stratigraphy and site formation processes. Geoarcheological data collected in the field and through micromorphological observation show that the archeological succession at Cueva Antón is mainly composed of alluvial sediments, with thin intercalations of gravitational and slope material. The sedimentary characteristics of the alluvial succession are well preserved as the result of a rapid accumulation rate and the protective effect of the rockshelter. Several sedimentary facies produced by the shifting of distinct fluvial sub-environments (channel, bar and floodplain) are recognized. With the exception of a few units (II-u, a thin buried alluvial soil, and the archeologically richest units at the base of the succession), postdepositional modification is rare. The site was occupied within a framework of infrequent, short-term visits, resulting in a relatively low overall density of finds and the formation of well-defined archeological lenses that correspond to synchronous paleosurfaces preserving the spatial distribution of finds and features. This pattern explains the limited anthropogenic evidence observed in thin sections, even those from units where archeological excavation uncovered significant remains of human occupation

Early EEG responses to pre-electoral survey items reflect political attitudes and predict voting behavior

Self-reports are conventionally used to measure political preferences, yet individuals may be unable or unwilling to report their political attitudes. Here, in 69 participants we compared implicit and explicit methods of political attitude assessment and focused our investigation on populist attitudes. Ahead of the 2019 European Parliament election, we recorded electroencephalography (EEG) from future voters while they completed a survey that measured levels of agreement on different political issues. An Implicit Association Test (IAT) was administered at the end of the recording session. Neural signals differed as a function of future vote for a populist or mainstream party and of whether survey items expressed populist or non-populist views. The combination of EEG responses and self-reported preferences predicted electoral choice better than traditional socio-demographic and ideological variables, while IAT scores were not a significant predictor. These findings suggest that measurements of brain activity can refine the assessment of socio-political attitudes, even when those attitudes are not based on traditional ideological divides