Weather conditions suitable for spring floods in north Eurasia and their frequency during the last decades

Statistical analysis is carried out on weather conditions in North Eurasia, favorable for spring floods in the region. Change of frequency and intensity of such situations since the middle of 20th century is studied too. Specific weather conditions suitable for spring floods in North Eurasia include:- extreme amount of snow accumulated during winter;- snow depth at the beginning of intense snowmelt;- fast warming above the melting point in the presence of snow;- heavy rains with air temperature above the melting point, combined with the presence of snow.Analysis of daily meteorological records over North Eurasia during 1950-2006 has been carried out for two distinctive time spans: from 1951 till 1980 (base period), and from 1989 till 2006 (contemporary climate warming). Among the weather conditions, favorable for the spring floods, snow accumulation is changing most intensively. Over most of Siberia and in the north-east of the East European Plain, it is increasing during the last decades as compared to the middle of 20th century. In some regions such as West Siberia and parts of Central Siberia, as well as in Sakhalin island, the increase of snow amount is rather significant. This can result in larger frequency of spring discharge, and, under certain circumstances, spring floods. However, the frequency of other weather situations favorable for the spring floods didn’t change so much on the scale of sub-continent. The snow depth just before fast melting has increased in some areas (parts of Pechora, Ob and Yenisey basins). Frequency of spring heat waves has increased in Pechora basin and parts of Ob river basin. The rain sums falling on snow have increased in relatively small areas, mostly in the East European Plain. Overall, the basins of Pechora and middle flow of Yenisey, and to some extent upper part of Lena river have become more threatened by the contemporary climate change in terms of spring floods.On the scale of the entire sub-continent, potential threats from the viewpoint of spring floods increase only in few areas of North Eurasia, while in other areas this danger has become less frequent

Effects of frozen soil on soil temperature, spring infiltration, and runoff: results from the PILPS 2(d) experiment at Valdai, Russia

Permission to place copies of these works on this server has been provided by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The AMS does not guarantee that the copies provided here are accurate copies of the published work. © Copyright 2003 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected] Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2(d) experiment at Valdai, Russia, offers a unique opportunity to evaluate land surface schemes, especially snow and frozen soil parameterizations. Here, the ability of the 21 schemes that participated in the experiment to correctly simulate the thermal and hydrological properties of the soil on several different timescales was examined. Using observed vertical profiles of soil temperature and soil moisture, the impact of frozen soil schemes in the land surface models on the soil temperature and soil moisture simulations was evaluated. It was found that when soil-water freezing is explicitly included in a model, it improves the simulation of soil temperature and its variability at seasonal and interannual scales. Although change of thermal conductivity of the soil also affects soil temperature simulation, this effect is rather weak. The impact of frozen soil on soil moisture is inconclusive in this experiment due to the particular climate at Valdai, where the top 1 m of soil is very close to saturation during winter and the range for soil moisture changes at the time of snowmelt is very limited. The results also imply that inclusion of explicit snow processes in the models would contribute to substantially improved simulations. More sophisticated snow models based on snow physics tend to produce better snow simulations, especially of snow ablation. Hysteresis of snow-cover fraction as a function of snow depth is observed at the catchment but not in any of the models

Effects of Frozen Soil on Soil Temperature, Spring Infiltration, and Runoff: Results from the PILPS 2(d) Experiment at Valdai, Russia

The Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2(d) experiment at Valdai, Russia, offers a unique opportunity to evaluate land surface schemes, especially snow and frozen soil parameterizations. Here, the ability of the 21 schemes that participated in the experiment to correctly simulate the thermal and hydrological properties of the soil on several different timescales was examined. Using observed vertical profiles of soil temperature and soil moisture, the impact of frozen soil schemes in the land surface models on the soil temperature and soil moisture simulations was evaluated. It was found that when soil-water freezing is explicitly included in a model, it improves the simulation of soil temperature and its variability at seasonal and interannual scales. Although change of thermal conductivity of the soil also affects soil temperature simulation, this effect is rather weak. The impact of frozen soil on soil moisture is inconclusive in this experiment due to the particular climate at Valdai, where the top 1 m of soil is very close to saturation during winter and the range for soil moisture changes at the time of snowmelt is very limited. The results also imply that inclusion of explicit snow processes in the models would contribute to substantially improved simulations. More sophisticated snow models based on snow physics tend to produce better snow simulations, especially of snow ablation. Hysteresis of snow-cover fraction as a function of snow depth is observed at the catchment but not in any of the models

The representation of snow in land surface schemes: results from PILPS 2(d)

Permission to place copies of these works on this server has been provided by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The AMS does not guarantee that the copies provided here are accurate copies of the published work. © Copyright 2001 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected] land surface schemes (LSSs) performed simulations forced by 18 yr of observed meteorological data from a grassland catchment at Valdai, Russia, as part of the Project for the Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(d). In this paper the authors examine the simulation of snow. In comparison with observations, the models are able to capture the broad features of the snow regime on both an intra- and interannual basis. However, weaknesses in the simulations exist, and early season ablation events are a significant source of model scatter. Over the 18-yr simulation, systematic differences between the models’ snow simulations are evident and reveal specific aspects of snow model parameterization and design as being responsible. Vapor exchange at the snow surface varies widely among the models, ranging from a large net loss to a small net source for the snow season. Snow albedo, fractional snow cover, and their interplay have a large effect on energy available for ablation, with differences among models most evident at low snow depths. The incorporation of the snowpack within an LSS structure affects the method by which snow accesses, as well as utilizes, available energy for ablation. The sensitivity of some models to longwave radiation, the dominant winter radiative flux, is partly due to a stability-induced feedback and the differing abilities of models to exchange turbulent energy with the atmosphere. Results presented in this paper suggest where weaknesses in macroscale snow modeling lie and where both theoretical and observational work should be focused to address these weaknesses

The Changing Face of Arctic Snow Cover: A Synthesis of Observed and Projected Changes

Analysis of in situ and satellite data shows evidence of different regional snow cover responses to the widespread warming and increasing winter precipitation that has characterized the Arctic climate for the past 40-50 years. The largest and most rapid decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover duration (SCD) are observed over maritime regions of the Arctic with the highest precipitation amounts. There is also evidence of marked differences in the response of snow cover between the North American and Eurasian sectors of the Arctic, with the North American sector exhibiting decreases in snow cover and snow depth over the entire period of available in situ observations from around 1950, while widespread decreases in snow cover are not apparent over Eurasia until after around 1980. However, snow depths are increasing in many regions of Eurasia. Warming and more frequent winter thaws are contributing to changes in snow pack structure with important implications for land use and provision of ecosystem services. Projected changes in snow cover from Global Climate Models for the 2050 period indicate increases in maximum SWE of up to 15% over much of the Arctic, with the largest increases (15-30%) over the Siberian sector. In contrast, SCD is projected to decrease by about 10-20% over much of the Arctic, with the smallest decreases over Siberia (<10%) and the largest decreases over Alaska and northern Scandinavia (30-40%) by 2050. These projected changes will have far-reaching consequences for the climate system, human activities, hydrology, and ecology

Validation of the energy budget of an alpine snowpack simulated by several snow models (SnowMIP project)

Many snow models have been developed for various applications such as hydrology, global atmospheric circulation models and avalanche forecasting. The degree of complexity of these models is highly variable, ranging from simple index methods to multi-layer models that simulate snow-cover stratigraphy and texture. In the framework of the SnowModel Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP), 23 modelswere compared using observedmeteorological parameters fromtwo mountainous alpine sites.The analysis here focuses on validation of snow energy-budget simulations. Albedo and snow surface temperature observations allow identification of the more realistic simulations and quantification of errors for two components of the energy budget: the net short- and longwave radiation. In particular, the different albedo parameterizations are evaluated for different snowpack states (in winter and spring). Analysis of results during the melting period allows an investigation of the different ways of partitioning the energy fluxes and reveals the complex feedbacks which occur when simulating the snow energy budget. Particular attention is paid to the impact of model complexity on the energy-budget components. The model complexity has a major role for the net longwave radiation calculation, whereas the albedo parameterization is the most significant factor explaining the accuracy of the net shortwave radiation simulation

Multiple Effects of Changes in Arctic Snow Cover

Snow cover plays a major role in the climate, hydrological and ecological systems of the Arctic and other regions through its influence on the surface energy balance (e.g. reflectivity), water balance (e.g. water storage and release), thermal regimes (e.g. insulation), vegetation and trace gas fluxes. Feedbacks to the climate system have global consequences. The livelihoods and well-being of Arctic residents and many services for the wider population depend on snow conditions so changes have important consequences. Already, changing snow conditions, particularly reduced summer soil moisture, winter thaw events and rain-on-snow conditions have negatively affected commercial forestry, reindeer herding, some wild animal populations and vegetation. Reductions in snow cover are also adversely impacting indigenous peoples' access to traditional foods with negative impacts on human health and well-being. However, there are likely to be some benefits from a changing Arctic snow regime such as more even run-off from melting snow that favours hydropower operations