Potential Benefits of Cattle Vaccination as a Supplementary Control for Bovine Tuberculosis

This is the final published version of the article. It was originally published in PLOS Computational Biology (Conlan AJK, Brooks Pollock E, McKinley TJ, Mitchell AP, Jones GJ, Vordermeier M, Wood JLN, PLoS Computational Biology 2015, 11(2): e1004038. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004038).\ud \ud ? 2015 Crown Copyright. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the free Open Government Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/o?pen-government-licence/open-government-l?icence.htmVaccination for the control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is not currently used within any international control program, and is illegal within the EU. Candidate vaccines, based upon Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Gu?rin (BCG) all interfere with the action of the tuberculin skin test, which is used to determine if animals, herds and countries are officially bTB-free. New diagnostic tests that Differentiate Infected from Vaccinated Animals (DIVA) offer the potential to introduce vaccination within existing eradication programs. We use within-herd transmission models estimated from historical data from Great Britain (GB) to explore the feasibility of such supplemental use of vaccination. The economic impact of bovine Tuberculosis for farmers is dominated by the costs associated with testing, and associated restrictions on animal movements. Farmers? willingness to adopt vaccination will require vaccination to not only reduce the burden of infection, but also the risk of restrictions being imposed. We find that, under the intensive sequence of testing in GB, it is the specificity of the DIVA test, rather than the sensitivity, that is the greatest barrier to see a herd level benefit of vaccination. The potential negative effects of vaccination could be mitigated through relaxation of testing. However, this could potentially increase the hidden burden of infection within Officially TB Free herds. Using our models, we explore the range of the DIVA test characteristics necessary to see a protective herd level benefit of vaccination. We estimate that a DIVA specificity of at least 99.85% and sensitivity of >40% is required to see a protective benefit of vaccination with no increase in the risk of missed infection. Data from experimentally infected animals suggest that this target specificity could be achieved in vaccinates using a cocktail of three DIVA antigens while maintaining a sensitivity of 73.3% (95%CI: 61.9, 82.9%) relative to post-mortem detection.This study was funded by Defra project SE3127 and uses nationally collected incidence and cattle-movement data sets held by Defra. The funders had no role in study design, data analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

The demography of free-roaming dog populations and applications to disease and population control

Understanding the demography of domestic dog populations is essential for effective disease control, particularly of canine-mediated rabies. Demographic data are also needed to plan effective population management. However, no study has comprehensively evaluated the contribution of demographic processes (i.e. births, deaths and movement) to variations in dog population size or density, or determined the factors that regulate these processes, including human factors. We report the results of a 3-year cohort study of domestic dogs, which is the first to generate detailed data on the temporal variation of these demographic characteristics. The study was undertaken in two communities in each of Bali, Indonesia and Johannesburg, South Africa, in rabies-endemic areas and where the majority of dogs were free-roaming. None of the four communities had been engaged in any dog population management interventions by local authorities or animal welfare organizations. All identified dogs in the four communities were monitored individually throughout the study. We observed either no population growth or a progressive decline in population size during the study period. There was no clear evidence that population size was regulated through environmental resource constraints. Rather, almost all of the identified dogs were owned and fed regularly by their owners, consistent with population size regulated by human demand. Finally, a substantial fraction of the dogs originated from outside the population, entirely through the translocation of dogs by people, rather than from local births. These findings demonstrate that previously reported growth of dog populations is not a general phenomenon and challenge the widely held view that free-roaming dogs are unowned and form closed populations. Synthesis and applications. These observations have broad implications for disease and population control. The accessibility of dogs for vaccination and evaluation through owners and the movement of dogs (some of them infected) by people will determine the viable options for disease control strategies. The impact of human factors on population dynamics will also influence the feasibility of annual vaccination campaigns to control rabies and population control through culling or sterilization. The complex relationship between dogs and people is critically important in the transmission and control of canine-mediated rabies. For effective management, human factors must be considered in the development of disease and population control programmes

A Defined Antigen Skin Test That Enables Implementation of BCG Vaccination for Control of Bovine Tuberculosis:Proof of Concept

In most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains endemic due to the absence of control programs. This is because successful bTB control and eradication programs have relied on test-and-slaughter strategies that are socioeconomically unfeasible in LMICs. While Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine-induced protection for cattle has long been documented in experimental and field trials, its use in control programs has been precluded by the inability to differentiate BCG-vaccinated from naturally infected animals using the OIE-prescribed purified protein derivative (PPD)-based tuberculin skin tests. In the current study, the diagnostic specificity and capability for differentiating infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA) of a novel defined antigen skin test (DST) in BCG-vaccinated (Bos taurus ssp. taurus x B. t. ssp. indicus) calves were compared with the performance of traditional PPD-tuberculin in both the skin test and in vitro interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). The IFN-γ production from whole blood cells stimulated with both PPDs increased significantly from the 0 week baseline levels, while DST induced no measurable IFN-γ production in BCG-vaccinated calves. None of the 15 BCG-vaccinated calves were reactive with the DST skin test (100% specificity; one-tailed lower 95% CI: 82). In contrast, 10 of 15 BCG-vaccinated calves were classified as reactors with the PPD-based single intradermal test (SIT) (specificity in vaccinated animals = 33%; 95% CI: 12, 62). Taken together, the results provide strong evidence that the DST is highly specific and enables DIVA capability in both skin and IGRA assay format, thereby enabling the implementation of BCG vaccine-based bTB control, particularly in settings where test and slaughter remain unfeasible

Population structure and transmission of Mycobacterium bovis in Ethiopia

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is endemic in cattle in Ethiopia, a country that hosts the largest national cattle herd in Africa. The intensive dairy sector, most of which is peri-urban, has the highest prevalence of disease. Previous studies in Ethiopia have demonstrated that the main cause is Mycobacterium bovis , which has been investigated using conventional molecular tools including deletion typing, spoligotyping and Mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR). Here we use whole-genome sequencing to examine the population structure of M. bovis in Ethiopia. A total of 134 M . bovis isolates were sequenced including 128 genomes from 85 mainly dairy cattle and six genomes isolated from humans, originating from 12 study sites across Ethiopia. These genomes provided a good representation of the previously described population structure of M. bovis , based on spoligotyping and demonstrated that the population is dominated by the clonal complexes African 2 (Af2) and European 3 (Eu3). A range of within-host diversity was observed amongst the isolates and evidence was found for both short- and long-distance transmission. Detailed analysis of available genomes from the Eu3 clonal complex combined with previously published genomes revealed two distinct introductions of this clonal complex into Ethiopia between 1950 and 1987, likely from Europe. This work is important to help better understand bTB transmission in cattle in Ethiopia and can potentially inform national strategies for bTB control in Ethiopia and beyond

skissler/haslemere

Supplemental information and data for the manuscript 'Sparking "The BBC Four Pandemic": Leveraging citizen science and mobile phones to model the spread of disease'

Estimation of the relative sensitivity of the comparative tuberculin skin test in tuberculous cattle herds subjected to depopulation

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one of the most serious economic animal health problems affecting the cattle industry in Great Britain (GB), with incidence in cattle herds increasing since the mid-1980s. The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test is the primary screening test in the bTB surveillance and control programme in GB and Ireland. The sensitivity (ability to detect infected cattle) of this test is central to the efficacy of the current testing regime, but most previous studies that have estimated test sensitivity (relative to the number of slaughtered cattle with visible lesions [VL] and/or positive culture results) lacked post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle. The slaughter of entire herds (“whole herd slaughters” or “depopulations”) that are infected by bTB are occasionally conducted in GB as a last-resort control measure to resolve intractable bTB herd breakdowns. These provide additional post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle, allowing a rare opportunity to calculate the animal-level sensitivity of the test relative to the total number of SICCT test-positive and negative VL animals identified post-mortem (rSe). In this study, data were analysed from 16 whole herd slaughters (748 SICCT test-positive and 1031 SICCT test-negative cattle) conducted in GB between 1988 and 2010, using a Bayesian hierarchical model. The overall rSe estimate of the SICCT test at the severe interpretation was 85% (95% credible interval [CI]: 78–91%), and at standard interpretation was 81% (95% CI: 70–89%). These estimates are more robust than those previously reported in GB due to inclusion of post-mortem data from SICCT test-negative cattle

Campylobacter jejuni colonization and transmission in broiler chickens: a modelling perspective

Campylobacter jejuni is one of the most common causes of acute enteritis in the developed world. The consumption of contaminated poultry, where C. jejuni is believed to be a commensal organism, is a major risk factor. However, the dynamics of this colonization process in commercially reared chickens is still poorly understood. Quantification of these dynamics of infection at an individual level is vital to understand transmission within populations and formulate new control strategies. There are multiple potential routes of introduction of C. jejuni into a commercial flock. Introduction is followed by a rapid increase in environmental levels of C. jejuni and the level of colonization of individual broilers. Recent experimental and epidemiological evidence suggest that the celerity of this process could be masking a complex pattern of colonization and extinction of bacterial strains within individual hosts. Despite the rapidity of colonization, experimental transmission studies exhibit a highly variable and unexplained delay time in the initial stages of the process. We review past models of transmission of C. jejuni in broilers and consider simple modifications, motivated by the plausible biological mechanisms of clearance and latency, which could account for this delay. We show how simple mathematical models can be used to guide the focus of experimental studies by providing testable predications based on our hypotheses. We conclude by suggesting that competition experiments could be used to further understand the dynamics and mechanisms underlying the colonization process. The population models for such competition processes have been extensively studied in other ecological and evolutionary contexts. However, C. jejuni can potentially adapt phenotypically through phase variation in gene expression, leading to unification of ecological and evolutionary time-scales. For a theoretician, the colonization dynamics of C. jejuni offer an experimental system to explore these ‘phylodynamics’, the synthesis of population dynamics and evolutionary biology