Sincronia e distanza nel ciclo economico delle regioni italiane

This paper is based on the data set of 20 Italian regional high frequency business indicators proposed in Benni, Brasili (2006) and successively developed by RegiosS (Cycle & Trends association). The aim of the present paper is to provide a retrospective analysis of the characteristics of regional cycles and their co-movements to better understand the consequences of the global crisis on the local economies. We will going to apply two methodologies to analyse the distances among the Italian regional business cycle. We calculate the cohesion measure (Croux et al. 2001) on two sub-samples of the indicators, in order to evaluate if co-movements have increased recently. Moreover we calculate the cohesion measure also for the regions before and after the adoption of the Euro currency and respect to the Italian cycle. On the structural side the differential on cycle profiles of the regions is interpreted in terms of the different product specialisation, the degree of financial markets development and the research intensity of firms

Banking integration and co-movements in EU banks’ fragility

The aim of this paper is to verify whether and to which extent co-movements in EU banks’ risk, i.e. their degree of exposures of European banks to common shocks, have increased in time, following the completion of Monetary Union, the introduction of the euro and the process of European banking integration. To this end, we provide a measure of co-movements in bank risk by means of a dynamic factor model, which allows to decompose an indicator of bank fragility, the Distance-to-Default, into three main components: an EU-wide, a country-specific and a bank-level idiosyncratic component. Our results show the commonality in bank risk appears to have significantly increased since 1999, in particular if one concentrates on large banks. We also show that co-movements in EU banks’ fragility are only in part related to common macro shocks and that a banking system specific component at the EU-wide level appears relevant. This has obvious consequences in terms of systemic stability, but may also have far reaching policy implications with regards to the structuring of banking supervision in EuropeCo-movements; dynamic factor models; distance-to-default; Systemic risk

Recent Developments in Productivity and the Role of Entrepreneurship in Italy: An Industry View

This paper explores the existing interplay between productivity trends across Italian industries, in the decade 1995-2005, and entrepreneurship, highlighting the urgent need for a revival in entrepreneurial capital in some industries. Initially, we consider as a measure of entrepreneurship the birth rates for different industries; this proxy proved to be a significant explanatory variable of a sector’s efficiency. We then attempt to extract a measure of managerial ability directly from the data, considering it as an unobservable and using Bayesian techniques to perform the estimation, which further reinforces the previous results.entrepreneurship, productivity growth, stochastic frontiers, Bayesian analysis, Gibbs sampling.

Sincronia e distanza nel ciclo economico delle regioni italiane

This paper is based on the data set of 20 Italian regional high frequency business indicators proposed in Benni, Brasili (2006) and successively developed by RegiosS (Cycle & Trends association). The aim of the present paper is to provide a retrospective analysis of the characteristics of regional cycles and their co-movements to better understand the consequences of the global crisis on the local economies. We will going to apply two methodologies to analyse the distances among the Italian regional business cycle. We calculate the cohesion measure (Croux et al. 2001) on two sub-samples of the indicators, in order to evaluate if co-movements have increased recently. Moreover we calculate the cohesion measure also for the regions before and after the adoption of the Euro currency and respect to the Italian cycle. On the structural side the differential on cycle profiles of the regions is interpreted in terms of the different product specialisation, the degree of financial markets development and the research intensity of firms.Italian Regional Cycle, Coincident Indicators, Cohesion, Dissimilarity Matrix

On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns

In this paper we analyse the dynamics of trade patterns in the six largest industrialised countries and in eight fast growing Asian economies. For each of these countries we study the shape of the sectoral distribution of an index of trade specialisation and its evolution over time. Our analysis shows a marked difference between the advanced and the emerging countries as far as the degree of persistence is concerned: the former have in fact a highly persistent trade pattern, whereas the latter show a rapidly changing trade specialisation. However, the two groups of countries are more similar as far as the evolution of the degree of specialisation is concerned: although emerging countries are still more specialised than the industrialised countries, both groups show a tendency toward a reduced polarisation and a more symmetric distribution of the specialisation index. This evidence is in line with the traditional trade theory, in which changing comparative advantage is the determinant of a changing trade pattern. On the contrary, this evidence does not support the idea that self- reinforcing mechanisms are prominent in international trade specialisation.trade patterns, trade specialisation, comparative advantages, stochastic kernels

Banking integration and co-movements in EU banks’ fragility

The aim of this paper is to verify whether and to which extent co-movements in EU banks’ risk, i.e. their degree of exposures of European banks to common shocks, have increased in time, following the completion of Monetary Union, the introduction of the euro and the process of European banking integration. To this end, we provide a measure of co-movements in bank risk by means of a dynamic factor model, which allows to decompose an indicator of bank fragility, the Distance-to-Default, into three main components: an EU-wide, a country-specific and a bank-level idiosyncratic component. Our results show the commonality in bank risk appears to have significantly increased since 1999, in particular if one concentrates on large banks. We also show that co-movements in EU banks’ fragility are only in part related to common macro shocks and that a banking system specific component at the EU-wide level appears relevant. This has obvious consequences in terms of systemic stability, but may also have far reaching policy implications with regards to the structuring of banking supervision in Europ

Banking integration and co-movements in EU banks’ fragility

The aim of this paper is to verify whether and to which extent co-movements in EU banks’ risk, i.e. their degree of exposures of European banks to common shocks, have increased in time, following the completion of Monetary Union, the introduction of the euro and the process of European banking integration. To this end, we provide a measure of co-movements in bank risk by means of a dynamic factor model, which allows to decompose an indicator of bank fragility, the Distance-to-Default, into three main components: an EU-wide, a country-specific and a bank-level idiosyncratic component. Our results show the commonality in bank risk appears to have significantly increased since 1999, in particular if one concentrates on large banks. We also show that co-movements in EU banks’ fragility are only in part related to common macro shocks and that a banking system specific component at the EU-wide level appears relevant. This has obvious consequences in terms of systemic stability, but may also have far reaching policy implications with regards to the structuring of banking supervision in Europ

A New and Versatile Synthesis of 1,3-Dioxan-5-yl-pyrimidine and Purine Nucleoside Analogues

1,3-Dioxan-5-yl pyrimidine and purine nucleoside analogues were prepared following a new and versatile synthetic strategy. These analogues were synthesized via nucleophilic addition of the selected nucleobase to a 1,3-dioxane scaffold that presents an appropriate leaving group in position 5. In particular cis and trans isomers of purine/pyrimidine nucleosides and their halogenated homologues were obtained. NMR experiments, carried out on the cis isomers, led to assignment of an equatorial orientation to the 2-hydroxymethyl group and axial orientation to the nucleobase in position 5 of the 1,3-dioxane. The trans isomers showed a diequatorial orientation of these groups. These assignments were confirmed by X-ray crystallographic studie

Performance Assessment in Fingerprinting and Multi Component Quantitative NMR Analyses

An interlaboratory comparison (ILC) was organized with the aim to set up quality control indicators suitable for multicomponent quantitative analysis by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. A total of 36 NMR data sets (corresponding to 1260 NMR spectra) were produced by 30 participants using 34 NMR spectrometers. The calibration line method was chosen for the quantification of a five-component model mixture. Results show that quantitative NMR is a robust quantification tool and that 26 out of 36 data sets resulted in statistically equivalent calibration lines for all considered NMR signals. The performance of each laboratory was assessed by means of a new performance index (named Qp-score) which is related to the difference between the experimental and the consensus values of the slope of the calibration lines. Laboratories endowed with a Qp-score falling within the suitable acceptability range are qualified to produce NMR spectra that can be considered statistically equivalent in terms of relative intensities of the signals. In addition, the specific response of nuclei to the experimental excitation/relaxation conditions was addressed by means of the parameter named NR. NR is related to the difference between the theoretical and the consensus slopes of the calibration lines and is specific for each signal produced by a well-defined set of acquisition parameters

Conti pubblici ed economia in Italia: previsioni e valutazioni empiriche mediante l'analisi delle serie storiche

Dottorato di ricerca in finanza pubblica. 10. ciclo. Supervisori Luigi Bernardi e Carlo Giannini. Coordinatore Luigi BernardiConsiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Biblioteca Centrale - P.le Aldo Moro, 7, Rome; Biblioteca Nazionale Centrale - P.za Cavalleggeri, 1, Florence / CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle RichercheSIGLEITItal