Sincronia e distanza nel ciclo economico delle regioni italiane

Abstract

This paper is based on the data set of 20 Italian regional high frequency business indicators proposed in Benni, Brasili (2006) and successively developed by RegiosS (Cycle & Trends association). The aim of the present paper is to provide a retrospective analysis of the characteristics of regional cycles and their co-movements to better understand the consequences of the global crisis on the local economies. We will going to apply two methodologies to analyse the distances among the Italian regional business cycle. We calculate the cohesion measure (Croux et al. 2001) on two sub-samples of the indicators, in order to evaluate if co-movements have increased recently. Moreover we calculate the cohesion measure also for the regions before and after the adoption of the Euro currency and respect to the Italian cycle. On the structural side the differential on cycle profiles of the regions is interpreted in terms of the different product specialisation, the degree of financial markets development and the research intensity of firms.Italian Regional Cycle, Coincident Indicators, Cohesion, Dissimilarity Matrix