The Evolution of Contractual Terms in Sovereign Bonds

In reaction to defaults on sovereign debt contracts, issuers and creditors have strengthened the terms in sovereign debt contracts that enable creditors to enforce their debts judicially and that enable sovereigns to restructure their debts. These apparently contradictory approaches reflect attempts to solve an incomplete contracting problem in which debtors need to be forced to repay debts in good states of the world; debtors need to be granted partial relief from debt payments in bad states; debtors may attempt to exploit divisions among creditors in order to opportunistically reduce their debt burden; debtors may engage in excessively risky activities using creditors\u27 money; and debtors and creditors may attempt to externalize costs on the taxpayers of other coun­tries. We support this argument with a statistical study of the development of sovereign bond terms from 1960 to the present

Temperature sensitivity of decomposition in relation to soil organic matter pools: Critique and outlook

Knorr et al. (2005) concluded that soil organic carbon pools with longer turnover times are more sensitive to temperature. We show that this conclusion is equivocal, largely dependent on their specific selection of data and does not persist when the data set of Kätterer et al. (1998) is analysed in a more appropriate way. Further, we analyse how statistical properties of the model parameters may interfere with correlative analyses that relate the Q 10 of soil respiration with the basal rate, where the latter is taken as a proxy for soil organic matter quality. We demonstrate that negative parameter correlations between Qio-values and base respiration rates are statistically expected and not necessarily provide evidence for a higher temperature sensitivity of low quality soil organic matter. Consequently, we propose it is premature to conclude that stable soil carbon is more sensitive to temperature than labile carbon

Temperature sensitivity of decomposition in relation to soil organic matter pools: critique and outlook

Knorr et al. (2005) concluded that soil organic carbon pools with longer turnover times are more sensitive to temperature. We show that this conclusion is equivocal, largely dependent on their specific selection of data and does not persist when the data set of Kätterer et al. (1998) is analysed in a more appropriate way. Further, we analyse how statistical properties of the model parameters may interfere with correlative analyses that relate the Q₁₀ of soil respiration with the basal rate, where the latter is taken as a proxy for soil organic matter quality. We demonstrate that negative parameter correlations between Q₁₀-values and base respiration rates are statistically expected and not necessarily provide evidence for a higher temperature sensitivity of low quality soil organic matter. Consequently, we propose it is premature to conclude that stable soil carbon is more sensitive to temperature than labile carbon

Fidelity of delivery and contextual factors influencing children’s level of engagement: Process evaluation of the Online Remote Behavioural Intervention for Tics (ORBIT) Trial (Preprint)

BACKGROUND: The Online Remote Behavioural Intervention for Tics (ORBIT) study was a multicentre randomized controlled trial of a complex intervention that consisted of an online behavioural intervention for children and young people (CYP) with tic disorders. In this first part of a two-stage process evaluation, we conducted a mixed-methods study exploring reach, dose, and fidelity of the intervention and contextual factors influencing engagement with the intervention. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore the fidelity of delivery and the contextual factors underpinning the ORBIT intervention. METHODS: Baseline study data and intervention usage metrics from participants in the intervention arm were used as quantitative implementation data (n=112). The experiences of being in the intervention were explored by semi-structured interviews with children (n=20) and parent (n=20) participants, therapists (n=4), and referring clinicians (n=6). A principal components analysis was used to create a comprehensive, composite measure of CYP’s engagement with the intervention. Engagement factor scores reflected relative uptake as assessed by a range of usage indices including chapters accessed, number of pages visited and number of logins. RESULTS: The intervention was implemented with high fidelity, and participants deemed the intervention acceptable and satisfactory. Engagement and adherence were high with child participants completing an average of 7.5/10 chapters and 100/112 (89.3%) participants completed a minimum of 4 chapters: the pre-defined threshold for effective dose. Compared to the total population of children with tic disorders, the sample tended to have more educated parents and live in more economically advantaged areas but socioeconomic factors were not related to engagement factor scores. Factors associated with higher engagement factor scores included participants enrolled at the London site vs. the Nottingham site (P=.011), self-referred vs. clinic-referred (P=.041), higher parental engagement as evidenced by number of parental chapters completed (ρ=0.73, n=111, P<.001) and more therapist time for parent (ρ=0.46, n=111, P<.001). A multiple linear regression indicated that parents’ chapter completion (β=.69, t110=10.18, P<.001) and therapist time for parent (β=.19, t110=2.95, P=.004) were the only significant independent predictors of engagement factor scores. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the intervention had high fidelity of delivery and was evaluated positively by participants, although reach may have been constrained by the nature of the randomized controlled trial. Parental engagement and therapist time for parent were strong predictors of intervention implementation which has important implications for the design and implementation of digital therapeutic interventions into Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services. Clinical Trial: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) 70758207; https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN70758207 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03483493; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0348349

Factors influencing the efficacy of an online behavioural intervention for children and young people with tics: Process evaluation of a randomised controlled trial

The Online Remote Behavioural Intervention for Tics (ORBIT) trial found that an internet-delivered, therapist-supported, and parent-assisted Exposure and Response Prevention (ERP) intervention reduced tic severity and improved clinical outcomes. This process evaluation aimed to explore mechanisms of impact and factors influencing efficacy. Participants were 112 children with a tic disorder and their parents randomised to the active intervention arm of the ORBIT trial. Child engagement was assessed by usage metrics and parent engagement by chapter completion. Experiences of the digital intervention were explored by semi-structured interviews. Outcomes (3-months post randomisation) were change in tic severity and overall clinical improvement. Tic severity reduced from baseline to 3-month follow-up and 36% were rated as much improved clinically. Greater tic severity at baseline predicted reduction in tic severity. Parental engagement was the only independent predictor of clinical improvement. There were no statistically significant mediators or moderators of the relationship between level of child engagement and outcome. From the qualitative findings, child participants appreciated working together with parents on the intervention and participants found the intervention engaging. ORBIT may be an effective and acceptable intervention for children and young people with tic disorders, with parental engagement being a key factor in successful outcomes

Protocol for the Process Evaluation of the Online Remote Behavioural Intervention for Tics (ORBIT) randomized controlled trial for children and young people

BackgroundProcess evaluations are an important component in the interpretation and understanding of outcomes in trials. The Online Remote Behavioural Intervention for Tics (ORBIT) study is a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of an Internet-delivered behavioural intervention (called BIP TIC) compared to an Internet-delivered education programme aimed at children and young people with tics. A process evaluation will be undertaken alongside the main trial to determine precisely how the behavioural intervention works and ascertain whether, and if so, how, the intervention could be successfully implemented in standard clinical practice. This protocol paper describes the rationale, aims, and methodology of the ORBIT trial process evaluation.MethodsThe process evaluation will have a mixed-methods design following the UK Medical Research Council 2015 guidelines, comprising both quantitative and qualitative data collection. This will include analysing data usage of participants in the intervention arm; purposively sampled, semi-structured interviews of parents and children, therapists and supervisors, and referring clinicians of the ORBIT trial, as well as analysis of qualitative comments put into the online therapy platform by participants at the end of treatment. Qualitative data will be analysed thematically. Quantitative and qualitative data will be integrated in a triangulation approach, to provide an understanding of how the intervention works, and what resources are needed for effective implementation, uptake and use in routine clinical care.DiscussionThis process evaluation will explore the experiences of participants, therapists and supervisors and referring clinicians of a complex online intervention. By contextualising trial efficacy results, this will help understand how and if the intervention worked and what may be required to sustain the implementation of the treatment long term. The findings will also aid in our understanding of factors that can affect the success of complex interventions. This will enable future researchers developing online behavioural interventions for children and young people with mental health and neurological disorders to gain invaluable information from this process evaluation.Trial registrationInternational Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number, ISRCTN70758207. Registered on 20 March 2018.ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03483493. Registered on 30 March 2018

Anthropogenic and climatic impacts on a coastal environment in the Baltic Sea over the last 1000 years

Coastal environments have experienced large ecological changes as a result of human activities over the last 100-200 years. To understand the severity and potential consequences of such changes, paleoenvironmental records provide important contextual information. The Baltic Sea coastal zone is naturally a vulnerable system and subject to significant human-induced impacts. To put the recent environmental degradation in the Baltic coastal zone into a long-term perspective, and to assess the natural and anthropogenic drivers of environmental change, we present sedimentary records covering the last 1000 years obtained from a coastal inlet (Gasfjarden) and a nearby lake (Lake Storsjon) in Sweden. We investigate the links between a pollen-based land cover reconstruction from Lake Storsjon and paleoenvironmental variables from Gasfjarden itself, including diatom assemblages, organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) contents, stable C and N isotopic ratios, and biogenic silica contents. The Lake Storsjon record shows that regional land use was characterized by small-scale agricultural activity between 900 and 1400 CE, which slightly intensified between 1400 and 1800 CE. Substantial expansion of cropland was observed between 1800 and 1950 CE, before afforestation between 1950 and 2010 CE. From the Gasfjarden record, prior to 1800 CE, relatively minor changes in the diatom and geochemical proxies were found. The onset of cultural eutrophication in Gasfjarden can be traced to the 1800s and intensified land use is identified as the main driver. Anthropogenic activities in the 20th century have caused unprecedented ecosystem changes in the coastal inlet, as reflected in the diatom composition and geochemical proxies. (c) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Holocene climate and environmental change in north-eastern Kamchatka (Russian Far East), inferred from a multi-proxy study of lake sediments

The study was supported by the Swedish Research Council through grants 621-2004-5224 and 621-2005-4444 to K.D. Bennett. A. Self and N. Solovieva acknowledge S. Brooks and V. Jones and were supported by NERC grant NE/H008160/1.A sediment record from a small lake in the north-eastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula has been investigated in a multi-proxy study to gain knowledge of Holocene climatic and environmental change. Pollen, diatoms, chironomids and selected geochemical parameters were analysed and the sediment record was dated with radiocarbon. The study shows Holocene changes in the terrestrial vegetation as well as responses of the lake ecosystem to catchment maturity and multiple stressors, such as climate change and volcanic eruptions. Climate change is the major driving force resulting in the recorded environmental changes in the lake, although recurrent tephra deposition events also contributed. The sediment record has an age at the base of about 10,000 cal yrs BP, and during the first 400 years the climate was cold and the lake exhibited extensive ice-cover during winter and relatively low primary production. Soils in the catchment were poor with shrub alder and birches dominating the vegetation surrounding the lake. At about 9600–8900 cal yrs BP the climate was cold and moist, and strong seasonal wind stress resulted in reduced ice-cover and increased primary production. After ca. 8900 cal yrs BP the forest density increased around the lake, runoff decreased in a generally drier climate resulting in decreased primary production in the lake until ca. 7000 cal yrs BP. This generally dry climate was interrupted by a brief climatic perturbation, possibly attributed to the 8.2 ka event, indicating increasingly windy conditions with thick snow cover, reduced ice-cover and slightly elevated primary production in the lake. The diatom record shows maximum thermal stratification at ca. 6300–5800 cal yrs BP and indicates together with the geochemical proxies a dry and slightly warmer climate resulting in a high productive lake. The most remarkably change in the catchment vegetation occurred at ca. 4200 cal yrs BP in the form of a conspicuous increase in Siberian dwarf pine (Pinus pumila), indicating a shift to a cooler climate with a thicker and more long-lasting snow cover. This vegetational change was accompanied by marked shifts in the diatom and chironomid stratigraphies, which are also indicative of colder climate and more extensive ice-cover.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe