Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models.</p

Fine Mapping the Spatial Distribution and Concentration of Unlabeled Drugs within Tissue Micro-Compartments Using Imaging Mass Spectrometry

Readouts that define the physiological distributions of drugs in tissues are an unmet challenge and at best imprecise, but are needed in order to understand both the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties associated with efficacy. Here we demonstrate that it is feasible to follow the in vivo transport of unlabeled drugs within specific organ and tissue compartments on a platform that applies MALDI imaging mass spectrometry to tissue sections characterized with high definition histology. We have tracked and quantified the distribution of an inhaled reference compound, tiotropium, within the lungs of dosed rats, using systematic point by point MS and MS/MS sampling at 200 µm intervals. By comparing drug ion distribution patterns in adjacent tissue sections, we observed that within 15 min following exposure, tiotropium parent MS ions (mass-to-charge; m/z 392.1) and fragmented daughter MS/MS ions (m/z 170.1 and 152.1) were dispersed in a concentration gradient (80 fmol-5 pmol) away from the central airways into the lung parenchyma and pleura. These drug levels agreed well with amounts detected in lung compartments by chemical extraction. Moreover, the simultaneous global definition of molecular ion signatures localized within 2-D tissue space provides accurate assignment of ion identities within histological landmarks, providing context to dynamic biological processes occurring at sites of drug presence. Our results highlight an important emerging technology allowing specific high resolution identification of unlabeled drugs at sites of in vivo uptake and retention

Widest Paths and Global Propagation in Bounded Value Iteration for Stochastic Games

Solving stochastic games with the reachability objective is a fundamental problem, especially in quantitative verification and synthesis. For this purpose, bounded value iteration (BVI) attracts attention as an efficient iterative method. However, BVI's performance is often impeded by costly end component (EC) computation that is needed to ensure convergence. Our contribution is a novel BVI algorithm that conducts, in addition to local propagation by the Bellman update that is typical of BVI, global propagation of upper bounds that is not hindered by ECs. To conduct global propagation in a computationally tractable manner, we construct a weighted graph and solve the widest path problem in it. Our experiments show the algorithm's performance advantage over the previous BVI algorithms that rely on EC computation.Comment: v2: an URL to the implementation is adde

Endothelin Receptor A Antagonism Attenuates Renal Medullary Blood Flow Impairment in Endotoxemic Pigs

BACKGROUND: Endothelin-1 is a potent endogenous vasoconstrictor that contributes to renal microcirculatory impairment during endotoxemia and sepsis. Here we investigated if the renal circulatory and metabolic effects of endothelin during endotoxemia are mediated through activation of endothelin-A receptors. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A randomized experimental study was performed with anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs subjected to Escherichia coli endotoxin infusion for five hours. After two hours the animals were treated with the selective endothelin receptor type A antagonist TBC 3711 (2 mg⋅kg(-1), n = 8) or served as endotoxin-treated controls (n = 8). Renal artery blood flow, diuresis and creatinine clearance decreased in response to endotoxemia. Perfusion in the cortex, as measured by laser doppler flowmetry, was reduced in both groups, but TBC 3711 attenuated the decrease in the medulla (p = 0.002). Compared to control, TBC 3711 reduced renal oxygen extraction as well as cortical and medullary lactate/pyruvate ratios (p<0.05) measured by microdialysis. Furthermore, TBC 3711 attenuated the decline in renal cortical interstitial glucose levels (p = 0.02) and increased medullary pyruvate levels (p = 0.03). Decreased creatinine clearance and oliguria were present in both groups without any significant difference. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that endothelin released during endotoxemia acts via endothelin A receptors to impair renal medullary blood flow causing ischemia. Reduced renal oxygen extraction and cortical levels of lactate by TBC 3711, without effects on cortical blood flow, further suggest additional metabolic effects of endothelin type A receptor activation in this model of endotoxin induced acute kidney injury

Identification of a cytokine network sustaining neutrophil and Th17 activation in untreated early rheumatoid arthritis

© 2010 Cascão et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Introduction: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease characterized by sustained synovitis. Recently, several studies have proposed neutrophils and Th17 cells as key players in the onset and perpetuation of this disease. The main goal of this work was to determine whether cytokines driving neutrophil and Th17 activation are dysregulated in very early rheumatoid arthritis patients with less than 6 weeks of disease duration and before treatment (VERA). Methods: Cytokines related to neutrophil and Th17 activation were quantified in the serum of VERA and established RA patients and compared with other very early arthritis (VEA) and healthy controls. Synovial fluid (SF) from RA and osteoarthritis (OA) patients was also analyzed. Results: VERA patients had increased serum levels of cytokines promoting Th17 polarization (IL-1b and IL-6), as well as IL-8 and Th17-derived cytokines (IL-17A and IL-22) known to induce neutrophil-mediated inflammation. In established RA this pattern is more evident within the SF. Early treatment with methotrexate or corticosteroids led to clinical improvement but without an impact on the cytokine pattern. Conclusions: VERA patients already display increased levels of cytokines related with Th17 polarization and neutrophil recruitment and activation, a dysregulation also found in SF of established RA. 0 Thus, our data suggest that a cytokine-milieu favoring Th17 and neutrophil activity is an early event in RA pathogenesis.This work was supported by a grant from Sociedade Portuguesa de Reumatologia/Schering-Plough 2005. RAM and RC were funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) SFRH/BD/30247/2006 and SFRH/BD/40513/2007, respectively. MMS-C was funded by Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship PERG-2008-239422 and a EULAR Young Investigator Award

Choice-Disability and HIV Infection: A Cross Sectional Study of HIV Status in Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland

Interpersonal power gradients may prevent people implementing HIV prevention decisions. Among 7,464 youth aged 15–29 years in Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland we documented indicators of choice-disability (low education, educational disparity with partner, experience of sexual violence, experience of intimate partner violence (IPV), poverty, partner income disparity, willingness to have sex without a condom despite believing partner at risk of HIV), and risk behaviours like inconsistent use of condoms and multiple partners. In Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland, 22.9, 9.1, and 26.1% women, and 8.3, 2.8, and 9.3% men, were HIV positive. Among both women and men, experience of IPV, IPV interacted with age, and partner income disparity interacted with age were associated with HIV positivity in multivariate analysis. Additional factors were low education (for women) and poverty (for men). Choice disability may be an important driver of the AIDS epidemic. New strategies are needed that favour the choice-disabled

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. Conclusions: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP219

Plasma interferon-alpha is associated with double-positivity for autoantibodies but is not a predictor of remission in early rheumatoid arthritis-a spin-off study of the NORD-STAR randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND: The type I interferon (IFN) gene signature is present in a subgroup of patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Protein levels of IFNα have not been measured in RA and it is unknown whether they associate with clinical characteristics or treatment effect. METHODS: Patients with early untreated RA (n = 347) were randomized to methotrexate combined with prednisone, certolizumab-pegol, abatacept, or tocilizumab. Plasma IFNα protein levels were determined by single molecular array (Simoa) before and 24 weeks after treatment initiation and were related to demographic and clinical factors including clinical disease activity index, disease activity score in 28 joints, swollen and tender joint counts, and patient global assessment. RESULTS: IFNα protein positivity was found in 26% of the patients, and of these, 92% were double-positive for rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA). IFNα protein levels were reduced 24 weeks after treatment initiation, and the absolute change was similar irrespective of treatment. IFNα protein positivity was associated neither with disease activity nor with achievement of CDAI remission 24 weeks after randomization. CONCLUSION: IFNα protein positivity is present in a subgroup of patients with early RA and associates with double-positivity for autoantibodies but not with disease activity. Pre-treatment IFNα positivity did not predict remission in any of the treatment arms, suggesting that the IFNα system is distinct from the pathways of TNF, IL-6, and T-cell activation in early RA. A spin-off study of the NORD-STAR randomized clinical trial, NCT01491815 (ClinicalTrials), registered 12/08/2011, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01491815

Intra and Inter-Population Morphological Variation of Shape and Size of the Chilean Magnificent Beetle, Ceroglossus chilensis in the Baker River Basin, Chilean Patagonia

The alteration of habitat generates different degrees of stress in insects. It has been suggested that the degrees of phenotypic disturbances reflect the ability of an individual to overcome the effects of stress. The Baker River Basin in the Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia has a very fragmented landscape, due to the destruction of the native forest and the use of land for agriculture and animal husbandry. This alteration should generate different degrees of disturbances in the insect communities, whose effects may be quantified by geometric morphometric tools. We analyzed morphological differences in 244 males and 133 females of the the Chilean magnificent beetle, Ceroglossus chilensis (Eschscholtz) (Coleoptera: Carabidae) collected in January, 2007, in mixed forests of Nothofagus dombeyi Mirbel (Ørsted) (Fagales: Nothofagaceae) and N. nitida Hofmus and in Second-growth forest of N. pumilio (Poepp. & Endl.) Krasser. Males were generally wider in the pronotum, while females had wider abdominal sternites. Although there were significant differences in shape and size between mature forests and second-growth forest, these were less significant among the sites within each type of vegetal formation. Individuals had more shape variations in the mature forest. We suggest that differences in shape are due at least in part to the isolation of the habitat. The differences found between sexes raises the question of how morphological variations and sexual dimorphism may be affected spatially by natural selection