Resource-based conflict in South Sudan and Gambella (Ethiopia): when water, land and oil mix with politics

This article looks at the issue of resources-based conflicts in the Horn of Africa region, examining two different case-studies – the newly independent country of South Sudan and the Gambella region, the westernmost in Ethiopia. It analyses how natural resources may have been or are at the core of the conflicts that have been affecting the two regions in recent decades. It is well documented that oil (a valuable natural resource) has been a main factor of competition and contention in the long-lasting conflict between North and South Sudan. But if we look at the internal conflicts within South Sudan, other natural resources appear as key elements of a complex puzzle of conflicts, where access to land and water for livelihoods figure prominently as main bones of contention. Similar patterns of conflict can be observed just across the South Sudan-Ethiopian border, in the Gambella region. The article assesses how the management and allocation of water and land resources has been the basis for both conflict and cooperation between different societal groups.FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologi

Água: um recurso estratégico no continente africano

Ao longo da história, os grandes rios africanos e as suas águas sempre atraíram a atenção de vários exploradores, historiadores, escritores, cientistas, artistas e mercenários, entre outros

Transboundary water interaction III: contest and compliance

This paper serves international water conflict resolution efforts by examining the ways that states contest hegemonic transboundary water arrangements. The conceptual framework of dynamic transboundary water interaction that it presents integrates theories about change and counter-hegemony to ascertain coercive, leverage, and liberating mechanisms through which contest and transformation of an arrangement occur. While the mechanisms can be active through sociopolitical processes either of compliance or of contest of the arrangement, most transboundary water interaction is found to contain elements of both. The role of power asymmetry is interpreted through classification of intervention strategies that seek to either influence or challenge the arrangements. Coexisting contest and compliance serve to explain in part the stasis on the Jordan and Ganges rivers (where the non-hegemons have in effect consented to the arrangement), as well as the changes on the Tigris and Mekong rivers, and even more rapid changes on the Amu Darya and Nile rivers (where the non-hegemons have confronted power asymmetry through influence and challenge). The framework also stresses how transboundary water events that may appear isolated are more accurately read within the many sociopolitical processes and arrangements they are shaped by. By clarifying the typically murky dynamics of interstate relations over transboundary waters, furthermore, the framework exposes a new suite of entry points for hydro-diplomatic initiatives

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

Resource-based conflict in South Sudan and Gambella (Ethiopia): when water, land and oil mix with politics

This article looks at the issue of resources-based conflicts in the Horn of Africa region, examining two different case-studies – the newly independent country of South Sudan and the Gambella region, the westernmost in Ethiopia. It analyses how natural resources may have been or are at the core of the conflicts that have been affecting the two regions in recent decades. It is well documented that oil (a valuable natural resource) has been a main factor of competition and contention in the long-lasting conflict between North and South Sudan. But if we look at the internal conflicts within South Sudan, other natural resources appear as key elements of a complex puzzle of conflicts, where access to land and water for livelihoods figure prominently as main bones of contention. Similar patterns of conflict can be observed just across the South Sudan-Ethiopian border, in the Gambella region. The article assesses how the management and allocation of water and land resources has been the basis for both conflict and cooperation between different societal groups

Changing Power Relations in the Nile River Basin: Unilateralism vs. Cooperation?

The aim of this article is to identify where and how power relations in the Nile river basin have changed over the past decade, and to analyse how these dynamics have influenced not only the political relations between upstream and downstream riparians but also the management and allocation of the shared Nile water resources. The article sheds light on the ongoing political and economic changes in the upstream countries (as well as in Sudan) and on how these dynamics might affect and challenge both the regional balance of power and the ongoing regional cooperation process. A critical analysis of the relationship between power shifts and the evolution of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is then provided. Finally, the article questions how unilateralist and multilateralist hydropolitical trends have co-existed in the Nile basin, and identifies possible future scenarios

A internacionalização dos serviços de “Intelligence”

Os primórdios do recurso a actividades de Intelligence como instrumento de obtenção de vantagens estratégicas em contexto de guerra remontam à II Guerra Mundial, quando os aliados utilizaram a cooperação neste domínio com vista a ganhar vantagens estratégicas sobre a Alemanha, recorrendo à ajuda de unidades de espionagem da polícia polaca e às técnicas de descodificação desenvolvidas então pelo Reino Unido. Contudo, o ataque a Pearl Harbor, em 1941, veio demonstrar a considerável falta de preparação da liderança política americana para lidar com as informações estratégicas que lhe eram fornecidas pelos seus serviços secretos

O novo padrão de despesa militar na transição do milénio

Os acontecimentos de 11 de Setembro marcaram de um modo indelével todo um discurso e uma prática sobre Segurança, Defesa e Cooperação Internacional. Todavia, as actuais fobias securitárias são o resultado de várias décadas de promoção de uma autêntica cultura bélica, sob a qual, países, regiões e o próprio mundo se encontraram prisioneiros e em que o receio do “outro” e, simultaneamente, a necessidade de se controlarem tensões internas, detonaram uma idiossincrasia iconoclasta dos equilíbrios precários existentes e de um dividendo de paz que, na realidade, nunca se conseguiu verdadeiramente capitalizar

How has the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam changed the legal, political, economic and scientific dynamics in the Nile Basin? : Editors’ Introduction

Peer reviewedPostprin

Power plus: Tony Allan’s contributions to understanding transboundary water arrangements

We trace the development of a theory and analytical frames within international political economy that originated from Tony Allan’s mainstreaming of power as a determining factor in the control of transboundary flows. These include the Framework of HydroHegemony, coexisting conflict and cooperation and Transboundary Water Interaction Analysis, counter-hegemony and virtual water rivers. These contributions are exemplified briefly through cases from around the globe and in particular the Nile. To ensure that this aspect of Tony’s legacy lives on, we propose a research agenda that includes the analysis of power interactions at substate levels between central governments and non-state actors