Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change

Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying (i.e., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100km × 100km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its ‘typical’ species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change (i.e., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected

IRAS 00450+7401 and the mid-infrared fade/burst cycle of R Coronae Borealis-type stars

We present optical and infrared imaging and spectroscopy of the R Coronae Borealis-type (R Cor Bor) star IRAS 00450+7401. Optical spectra further confirm its classification as a cool R Cor Bor system, having a hydrogen-deficient carbon star spectral sub-class of HdC5 or later. Mid-infrared spectroscopy reveals the typical ~8 um ``hump'' seen in other R Cor Bor stars and no other features. A modern-epoch spectral energy distribution shows bright emission from hot dust having Tdust>600 K. Historical infrared data reveal generally cooler dust color temperatures combined with long-term fading trends, but provide no discernible correlation between flux level and temperature. Investigating the most mid-infrared variable R Cor Bor stars found in IRAS, AKARI, and WISE data reveals similar fading trends, bursts that can show a factor of up to 10 change in flux density between epochs, and blackbody-fit dust color temperatures that span 400-1300 K. While some R Cor Bor stars such as IRAS 00450+7401 appear to undergo fade/burst cycles in the mid-infrared, significant gaps in temporal coverage prevent conclusively identifying any preferred timescale for their mid-infrared variability and circumstellar dust temperature changes.Comment: AJ accepted, 15 pages, 6 figures, 5 tables, and an appendi

Inter-species variation in colour perception

Inter-species variation in colour perception poses a serious problem for the view that colours are mind-independent properties. Given that colour perception varies so drastically across species, which species perceives colours as they really are? In this paper, I argue that all do. Specifically, I argue that members of different species perceive properties that are determinates of different, mutually compatible, determinables. This is an instance of a general selectionist strategy for dealing with cases of perceptual variation. According to selectionist views, objects simultaneously instantiate a plurality of colours, all of them genuinely mind-independent, and subjects select from amongst this plurality which colours they perceive. I contrast selectionist views with relationalist views that deny the mind-independence of colour, and consider some general objections to this strategy

Coexisting conical bipolar and equatorial outflows from a high-mass protostar

The BN/KL region in the Orion molecular cloud is an archetype in the study of the formation of stars much more massive than the Sun. This region contains luminous young stars and protostars, but it is difficult to study because of overlying dust and gas. Our basic expectations are shaped to some extent by the present theoretical picture of star formation, the cornerstone of which is that protostars acrete gas from rotating equatorial disks, and shed angular momentum by ejecting gas in bipolar outflows. The main source of the outflow in the BN/KL region may be an object known as radio source I, which is commonly believed to be surrounded by a rotating disk of molecular material. Here we report high-resolution observations of silicon monoxide (SiO) and water maser emission from the gas surrounding source I; we show that within 60 AU (about the size of the Solar System), the region is dominated by a conical bipolar outflow, rather than the expected disk. A slower outflow, close to the equatorial plane of the protostellar system, extends to radii of 1,000 AU.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures. Accepted by Nature. To appear December 199

Simulation of thermal conductivity and heat transport in solids

Using molecular dynamics (MD) with classical interaction potentials we present calculations of thermal conductivity and heat transport in crystals and glasses. Inducing shock waves and heat pulses into the systems we study the spreading of energy and temperature over the configurations. Phonon decay is investigated by exciting single modes in the structures and monitoring the time evolution of the amplitude using MD in a microcanonical ensemble. As examples, crystalline and amorphous modifications of Selenium and $\rm{SiO_2}$ are considered.Comment: Revtex, 8 pages, 11 postscript figures, accepted for publication in PR

Comfort radicalism and NEETs: a conservative praxis

Young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are construed by policy makers as a pressing problem about which something should be done. Such young people's lack of employment is thought to pose difficulties for wider society in relation to social cohesion and inclusion and it is feared that they will become a 'lost generation'. This paper(1) draws upon English research, seeking to historicise the debate whilst acknowledging that these issues have a much wider purchase. The notion of NEETs rests alongside longstanding concerns of the English state and middle classes, addressing unruly male working class youth as well as the moral turpitude of working class girls. Waged labour and domesticity are seen as a means to integrate such groups into society thereby generating social cohesion. The paper places the debate within it socio-economic context and draws on theorisations of cognitive capitalism, Italian workerism, as well as emerging theories of antiwork to analyse these. It concludes by arguing that ‘radical’ approaches to NEETs that point towards inequities embedded in the social structure and call for social democratic solutions veer towards a form of comfort radicalism. Such approaches leave in place the dominance of capitalist relations as well as productivist orientations that celebrate waged labour

Modelling the long-term suspended sedimentological effects on stormwater pond performance in an urban catchment

The influence of long-term suspended sediment dynamics on stormwater pond performance should not be ignored, but is often neglected in pond design and performance evaluation. This paper provides systematic simulated quantification of long-term suspended sedimentological effects on stormwater pond performance. Integrated hydrological and two-dimensional hydro-morphodynamic modelling and simulations were carried over a 32-year period (1984–2015) covering 3896 rainfall events with a wide range of rainfall volumes, durations and intensities. Three event-based hypothetical rainfall scenarios: non-flood condition (5-year), sewer design condition (30-year), and river flood condition (100-year) rainfall events with 1-h duration, were also simulated for comparison between the traditional event-based approach and the novel approach presented in this study. Simulation results show that the flood peak attenuation and delay are more pronounced for small (<5-year) and medium (<30-year) flood events. The long-term continuous simulation results indicate that the pond provides positive annual trap efficiencies varying from 2% to 69% for 31 of 32 years, providing long-term water quality benefits downstream. However, an extreme rainfall event in year 2012 flush out the accumulated sedimentation as a shock load to the downstream river, leading to a negative trap efficiency of −11%. The spatially averaged sediment deposition rate, as predicted by the model, varies with a mean (SD) of 2 (1.34) cm/year over the study period, which resulted in a 24% loss in the pond’s volume over 32 years. The impact of the loss in storage on pond flood attenuation capacity are explored at regular time intervals over the study period. The results indicate that reduction in the pond’s flood attenuation capacity is relatively more pronounced for medium (30-year) and extreme (100-year) flood events than the frequent small flood (5-year) events. The variation in annual sediment loading with rainfall quantities and patterns are also explored

A 3D Photoionization Model of the Extreme Planetary Nebula NGC 6302

We present a 3D photoionization model of the PN NGC 6302, one of the most complex objects of its kind. Our Mocassin model is composed of an extremely dense circumstellar disk and a large pair of diffuse bipolar lobes, a combination necessary to reproduce the observed spectrum. The masses of these components gives a total nebular mass of 4.7Mo. Discrepancies between our model fit and the observations are attributed to complex density inhomogeneities in the nebula. The potential to resolve such discrepancies with more complex models is confirmed by a range of models introducing small-scale structures. Compared to solar abundances He is enhanced by 50%, C is slightly subsolar, O is solar, and N is enhanced by a factor of 6. These imply a significant 3rd dredge-up coupled with hot-bottom burning CN-cycle conversion of dredged-up C to N. The central star is partly obscured by the edge-on circumstellar disk and its properties are not well constrained. Emission from a number of high-ionization `coronal' lines provides constraints on the form of the high-energy ionizing flux. Using a solar abundance stellar atmosphere we are unable to fit all of the observed line fluxes, but a substantially better fit was obtained using a 220,000K H-deficient stellar atmosphere with L*=14,300 Lo. The H-deficient nature of the central star suggests it has undergone a late thermal pulse, and fits to evolutionary tracks imply a central star mass of 0.73-0.82Mo. Timescales for these tracks suggest the object left the top of the AGB ~2100 years ago, in agreement with studies of the recent mass-loss event that formed the bipolar lobes. Based on the modelled nebular and central star masses we estimate the initial mass of the central star to be 5.5Mo, in agreement with that derived from evolutionary tracks. (Abstract truncated)Comment: 23 pages, 8 figures, 10 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRA