Trajectory Simulation of Meteors Assuming Mass Loss and Fragmentation

Program used to simulate atmospheric flight trajectories of entry capsules [1] Includes models of atmospheres of different planetary destinations - Earth, Mars, Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Titan, ... Solves 3-degrees of freedom (3DoF) equations for a single body treated as a point mass. Also supports 6-DoF trajectory simula4on and Monte Carlo analyses. Uses Fehlberg-Runge-Kuna (4th-5th order) time integraion with automaic step size control. Includes rotating spheroidal planet with gravitational field having a J2 harmonic. Includes a variety of engineering aerodynamic and heat flux models. Capable of specifying events - heatshield jettison, parachute deployment, etc. - at predefined altitudes or Mach number. Has material thermal response models of typical aerospace materials integrated

Comparisons of Air Radiation Model with Shock Tube Measurements

This paper presents an assessment of the predictive capability of shock layer radiation model appropriate for NASA s Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle lunar return entry. A detailed set of spectrally resolved radiation intensity comparisons are made with recently conducted tests in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility at NASA Ames Research Center. The spectral range spanned from vacuum ultraviolet wavelength of 115 nm to infrared wavelength of 1400 nm. The analysis is done for 9.5-10.5 km/s shock passing through room temperature synthetic air at 0.2, 0.3 and 0.7 Torr. The comparisons between model and measurements show discrepancies in the level of background continuum radiation and intensities of atomic lines. Impurities in the EAST facility in the form of carbon bearing species are also modeled to estimate the level of contaminants and their impact on the comparisons. The discrepancies, although large is some cases, exhibit order and consistency. A set of tests and analyses improvements are proposed as forward work plan in order to confirm or reject various proposed reasons for the observed discrepancies

Aerothermal Design of a Common Probe for Multiple Planetary Destinations

Estimate the mass of the Thermal Protection System (TPS) for a single design construct of an atmospheric entry probe with a rigid aeroshell, which could be used at five destinations, i.e. Venus, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and perhaps, Jupiter. The entry mass of the probe is 400 kg with a ballistic coefficient of 216 kg/m2. Process: The 3DoF trajectory simulation program Traj, coupled with the TPS response program FIAT was used for simulation and design. The assumed atmospheric models were VIRA (Venus-GRAM) for Venus, the Julianne Moses' model for Saturn, a NASA Ames engineering model for Uranus, Neptune-GRAM for Neptune, and Galileo Probe (Al Seiff's) result for Jupiter

Atmospheric Entry Studies for Venus Missions: 45 Sphere-Cone Rigid Aeroshells and Ballistic Entries

The present study considers direct ballistic entries into the atmosphere of Venus using a 45deg sphere-cone rigid aeroshell, a legacy shape that has been used successfully in the past in the Pioneer Venus Multiprobe Mission. For a number of entry mass and heatshield diameter combinations (i.e., various ballistic coefficients) and entry velocities, the trajectory space in terms of entry flight path angles between skip out and -30deg is explored with a 3DoF trajectory code, TRAJ. From these trajectories, the viable entry flight path angle space is determined through the use of mechanical and thermal performance limits on the thermal protection material and science payload; the thermal protection material of choice is entry-grade carbon phenolic, for which a material thermal response model is available. For mechanical performance, a 200 g limit is placed on the peak deceleration load experienced by the science instruments, and 10 bar is assumed as the pressure limit for entry-grade carbon-phenolic material. For thermal performance, inflection points in the total heat load distribution are used as cut off criteria. Analysis of the results shows the existence of a range of critical ballistic coefficients beyond which the steepest possible entries are determined by the pressure limit of the material rather than the deceleration load limit

Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup

A new research effort at NASA Ames Research Center has been initiated in Planetary Defense, which integrates the disciplines of planetary science, atmospheric entry physics, and physics-based risk assessment. This paper describes work within the new program and is focused on meteor entry and breakup.Over the last six decades significant effort was expended in the US and in Europe to understand meteor entry including ablation, fragmentation and airburst (if any) for various types of meteors ranging from stony to iron spectral types. These efforts have produced primarily empirical mathematical models based on observations. Weaknesses of these models, apart from their empiricism, are reliance on idealized shapes (spheres, cylinders, etc.) and simplified models for thermal response of meteoritic materials to aerodynamic and radiative heating. Furthermore, the fragmentation and energy release of meteors (airburst) is poorly understood.On the other hand, flight of human-made atmospheric entry capsules is well understood. The capsules and their requisite heatshields are designed and margined to survive entry. However, the highest speed Earth entry for capsules is 13 kms (Stardust). Furthermore, Earth entry capsules have never exceeded diameters of 5 m, nor have their peak aerothermal environments exceeded 0.3 atm and 1 kW/sq cm. The aims of the current work are: (i) to define the aerothermal environments for objects with entry velocities from 13 to 20 kms; (ii) to explore various hypotheses of fragmentation and airburst of stony meteors in the near term; (iii) to explore the possibility of performing relevant ground-based tests to verify candidate hypotheses; and (iv) to quantify the energy released in airbursts. The results of the new simulations will be used to anchor said risk assessment analyses. With these aims in mind, state-of-the-art entry capsule design tools are being extended for meteor entries. We describe: (i) applications of current simulation tools to spherical geometries of diameters ranging from 1 to 100 m for an entry velocity of 20 kms and stagnation pressures ranging from 1 to 100 atm; (ii) the influence of shape and departure of heating environment predictions from those for a simple spherical geometry; (iii) assessment of thermal response models for silica subject to intense radiation; and (iv) results for porosity-driven gross fragmentation of meteors, idealized as a collection of smaller objects. Lessons learned from these simulations will be used to help understand the Chelyabinsk meteor entry up to its first point of fragmentation

Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup

A new research effort at NASA Ames Research Center has been initiated in Planetary Defense, which integrates the disciplines of planetary science, atmospheric entry physics, and physics-based risk assessment. This paper describes work within the new program and is focused on meteor entry and breakup. Over the last six decades significant effort was expended in the US and in Europe to understand meteor entry including ablation, fragmentation and airburst (if any) for various types of meteors ranging from stony to iron spectral types. These efforts have produced primarily empirical mathematical models based on observations. Weaknesses of these models, apart from their empiricism, are reliance on idealized shapes (spheres, cylinders, etc.) and simplified models for thermal response of meteoritic materials to aerodynamic and radiative heating. Furthermore, the fragmentation and energy release of meteors (airburst) is poorly understood. On the other hand, flight of human-made atmospheric entry capsules is well understood. The capsules and their requisite heat shields are designed and margined to survive entry. However, the highest speed Earth entry for capsules is 13 kms (Stardust). Furthermore, Earth entry capsules have never exceeded diameters of 5 m, nor have their peak aerothermal environments exceeded 0.3 atm and 1 kWcm2. The aims of the current work are: (i) to define the aerothermal environments for objects with entry velocities from 13 to 20 kms; (ii) to explore various hypotheses of fragmentation and airburst of stony meteors in the near term; (iii) to explore the possibility of performing relevant ground-based tests to verify candidate hypotheses; and (iv) to quantify the energy released in airbursts. The results of the new simulations will be used to anchor said risk assessment analyses.With these aims in mind, state-of-the-art entry capsule design tools are being extended for meteor entries. We describe: (i) applications of current simulation tools to spherical geometries of diameters ranging from 1 to 100 m for an entry velocity of 20 kms and stagnation pressures ranging from 1 to 100 atm; (ii) the influence of shape and departure of heating environment predictions from those for a simple spherical geometry; (iii) assessment of thermal response models for silica subject to intense radiation; and (iv) results for porosity-driven gross fragmentation of meteors, idealized as a collection of smaller objects. Lessons learned from these simulations will be used to help understand the Chelyabinsk meteor entry up to its first point of fragmentation

Permutation criteria to evaluate multiple clinical endpoints in a proof-of-concept study: lessons from Pre-RELAX-AHF

Clinically relevant endpoints cannot be routinely targeted with reasonable power in a small study. Hence, proof-of-concept studies are often powered to a primary surrogate endpoint. However, in acute heart failure (AHF) effects on surrogates have not translated into clinical benefit in confirmatory studies. Although observing an effect on one of many endpoints due to chance is likely, observing concurrent positive trends across several outcomes by chance is usually unlikely. Pre-RELAX-AHF, which compared 4 relaxin doses with placebo in AHF, has shown favourable trends versus placebo (one-sided P <0.10) on six of nine clinical endpoints in the 30 mu g/kg/day group. To illustrate evaluation of multiple, correlated clinical endpoints for evidence of efficacy and for dose selection, a permutation method was applied retrospectively. By randomly re-assigning the treatment group to the actual data for each of the 229 subjects, 20,000 permutation samples were constructed. The permutation P value for at least six favourable trends among nine endpoints in any dose groups was 0.0073 (99.9% CI 0.0053-0.0093). This is higher than would be expected if the endpoints were uncorrelated (0.00026), but much lower than the probability of observing one of nine comparisons significant at the traditional two-sided P <0.05 (0.74). Thus, the result was unlikely due to correlated endpoints or to chance. Examining consistency of effect across multiple clinical endpoints in a proof-of-concept study may identify efficacious therapies and enable dose selection for confirmatory trials. The merit of the approach described requires confirmation through prospective application in designing future studies

Why do banks promise to pay par on demand?

We survey the theories of why banks promise to pay par on demand and examine evidence about the conditions under which banks have promised to pay the par value of deposits and banknotes on demand when holding only fractional reserves. The theoretical literature can be broadly divided into four strands: liquidity provision, asymmetric information, legal restrictions, and a medium of exchange. We assume that it is not zero cost to make a promise to redeem a liability at par value on demand. If so, then the conditions in the theories that result in par redemption are possible explanations of why banks promise to pay par on demand. If the explanation based on customers’ demand for liquidity is correct, payment of deposits at par will be promised when banks hold assets that are illiquid in the short run. If the asymmetric-information explanation based on the difficulty of valuing assets is correct, the marketability of banks’ assets determines whether banks promise to pay par. If the legal restrictions explanation of par redemption is correct, banks will not promise to pay par if they are not required to do so. If the transaction explanation is correct, banks will promise to pay par value only if the deposits are used in transactions. After the survey of the theoretical literature, we examine the history of banking in several countries in different eras: fourth-century Athens, medieval Italy, Japan, and free banking and money market mutual funds in the United States. We find that all of the theories can explain some of the observed banking arrangements, and none explain all of them

Search for rare quark-annihilation decays, B --> Ds(*) Phi

We report on searches for B- --> Ds- Phi and B- --> Ds*- Phi. In the context of the Standard Model, these decays are expected to be highly suppressed since they proceed through annihilation of the b and u-bar quarks in the B- meson. Our results are based on 234 million Upsilon(4S) --> B Bbar decays collected with the BABAR detector at SLAC. We find no evidence for these decays, and we set Bayesian 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions BF(B- --> Ds- Phi) Ds*- Phi)<1.2x10^(-5). These results are consistent with Standard Model expectations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Observation and study of baryonic B decays: B -> D(*) p pbar, D(*) p pbar pi, and D(*) p pbar pi pi

We present a study of ten B-meson decays to a D(*), a proton-antiproton pair, and a system of up to two pions using BaBar's data set of 455x10^6 BBbar pairs. Four of the modes (B0bar -> D0 p anti-p, B0bar -> D*0 p anti-p, B0bar -> D+ p anti-p pi-, B0bar -> D*+ p anti-p pi-) are studied with improved statistics compared to previous measurements; six of the modes (B- -> D0 p anti-p pi-, B- -> D*0 p anti-p pi-, B0bar -> D0 p anti-p pi- pi+, B0bar -> D*0 p anti-p pi- pi+, B- -> D+ p anti-p pi- pi-, B- -> D*+ p anti-p pi- pi-) are first observations. The branching fractions for 3- and 5-body decays are suppressed compared to 4-body decays. Kinematic distributions for 3-body decays show non-overlapping threshold enhancements in m(p anti-p) and m(D(*)0 p) in the Dalitz plots. For 4-body decays, m(p pi-) mass projections show a narrow peak with mass and full width of (1497.4 +- 3.0 +- 0.9) MeV/c2, and (47 +- 12 +- 4) MeV/c2, respectively, where the first (second) errors are statistical (systematic). For 5-body decays, mass projections are similar to phase space expectations. All results are preliminary.Comment: 28 pages, 90 postscript figures, submitted to LP0