A Refined MACD Indicator – Evidence against the Random Walk Hypothesis?

Rigorous testing of the widely used MACD indicator results in a surprisingly low success rate of 32.73% for the individually tested NASDAQ- 100 stocks over a 10-year period. This study derives two methods, which address the shortcomings of the MACD indicator. The methods are tested outof-sample to address data-snooping concerns, i.e. to reduce the chance of falsely rejecting the null-hypothesis of no predictability. One version of the second derived method, named MACDR2, results in a success-rate of 89.39%. The performance of method MACDR2 is positively correlated to the volatility of the stock and can be enhanced with option trading. However, the risk-adjusted Sharpe ratio, which is highly sensitive to the implied volatility used in the Black-Merton model, shows mixed results. Shorter or longer exponential moving averages do not improve the success rate of the traditional MACD indicator. Yet the success rate of method MACDR2 is slightly positively correlated to longer exponential moving averages.Most versions of the method MACR2 outperform the benchmark of holding a riskless security, the Treasury bond and holding the underlying asset, the NASDAQ-100. Thus, this study provides evidence against the Random Walk Hypothesis. However, the results are weakened significantly, if transaction costs and maximum trading constraints are incorporated in the study

Molecular recording of mammalian embryogenesis.

Ontogeny describes the emergence of complex multicellular organisms from single totipotent cells. This field is particularly challenging in mammals, owing to the indeterminate relationship between self-renewal and differentiation, variation in progenitor field sizes, and internal gestation in these animals. Here we present a flexible, high-information, multi-channel molecular recorder with a single-cell readout and apply it as an evolving lineage tracer to assemble mouse cell-fate maps from fertilization through gastrulation. By combining lineage information with single-cell RNA sequencing profiles, we recapitulate canonical developmental relationships between different tissue types and reveal the nearly complete transcriptional convergence of endodermal cells of extra-embryonic and embryonic origins. Finally, we apply our cell-fate maps to estimate the number of embryonic progenitor cells and their degree of asymmetric partitioning during specification. Our approach enables massively parallel, high-resolution recording of lineage and other information in mammalian systems, which will facilitate the construction of a quantitative framework for understanding developmental processes

Culture shapes how we look at faces

Background: Face processing, amongst many basic visual skills, is thought to be invariant across all humans. From as early as 1965, studies of eye movements have consistently revealed a systematic triangular sequence of fixations over the eyes and the mouth, suggesting that faces elicit a universal, biologically-determined information extraction pattern. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we monitored the eye movements of Western Caucasian and East Asian observers while they learned, recognized, and categorized by race Western Caucasian and East Asian faces. Western Caucasian observers reproduced a scattered triangular pattern of fixations for faces of both races and across tasks. Contrary to intuition, East Asian observers focused more on the central region of the face. Conclusions/Significance: These results demonstrate that face processing can no longer be considered as arising from a universal series of perceptual events. The strategy employed to extract visual information from faces differs across cultures

Sequential Effects in Judgements of Attractiveness: The Influences of Face Race and Sex

In perceptual decision-making, a person’s response on a given trial is influenced by their response on the immediately preceding trial. This sequential effect was initially demonstrated in psychophysical tasks, but has now been found in more complex, real-world judgements. The similarity of the current and previous stimuli determines the nature of the effect, with more similar items producing assimilation in judgements, while less similarity can cause a contrast effect. Previous research found assimilation in ratings of facial attractiveness, and here, we investigated whether this effect is influenced by the social categories of the faces presented. Over three experiments, participants rated the attractiveness of own- (White) and other-race (Chinese) faces of both sexes that appeared successively. Through blocking trials by race (Experiment 1), sex (Experiment 2), or both dimensions (Experiment 3), we could examine how sequential judgements were altered by the salience of different social categories in face sequences. For sequences that varied in sex alone, own-race faces showed significantly less opposite-sex assimilation (male and female faces perceived as dissimilar), while other-race faces showed equal assimilation for opposite- and same-sex sequences (male and female faces were not differentiated). For sequences that varied in race alone, categorisation by race resulted in no opposite-race assimilation for either sex of face (White and Chinese faces perceived as dissimilar). For sequences that varied in both race and sex, same-category assimilation was significantly greater than opposite-category. Our results suggest that the race of a face represents a superordinate category relative to sex. These findings demonstrate the importance of social categories when considering sequential judgements of faces, and also highlight a novel approach for investigating how multiple social dimensions interact during decision-making

Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in preindustrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia

Clinical Conditions “Suggestive of Progressive Supranuclear Palsy”—Diagnostic Performance

Background: The Movement Disorder Society diagnostic criteria for progressive supranuclear palsy introduced the diagnostic certainty level “suggestive of progressive supranuclear palsy” for clinical conditions with subtle signs, suggestive of the disease. This category aims at the early identification of patients, in whom the diagnosis may be confirmed as the disease evolves. Objective: To assess the diagnostic performance of the defined clinical conditions suggestive of progressive supranuclear palsy in an autopsy-confirmed cohort. Methods: Diagnostic performance of the criteria was analyzed based on retrospective clinical data of 204 autopsy-confirmed patients with progressive supranuclear palsy and 216 patients with other neurological diseases. Results: The conditions suggestive of progressive supranuclear palsy strongly increased the sensitivity compared to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and Society for Progressive Supranuclear Palsy criteria. Within the first year after symptom onset, 40% of patients with definite progressive supranuclear palsy fulfilled criteria for suggestive of progressive supranuclear palsy. Two-thirds of patients suggestive of progressive supranuclear palsy evolved into probable progressive supranuclear palsy after an average of 3.6 years. Application of the criteria for suggestive of progressive supranuclear palsy reduced the average time to diagnosis from 3.8 to 2.2 years. Conclusions: Clinical conditions suggestive of progressive supranuclear palsy allow earlier identification of patients likely to evolve into clinically possible or probable progressive supranuclear and to have underlying progressive supranuclear palsy pathology. Further work needs to establish the specificity and positive predictive value of this category in real-life clinical settings, and to develop specific biomarkers that enhance their diagnostic accuracy in early disease stages

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy -- corrected for geometrical effects -- is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurement of the Radiation Energy in the Radio Signal of Extensive Air Showers as a Universal Estimator of Cosmic-Ray Energy

We measure the energy emitted by extensive air showers in the form of radio emission in the frequency range from 30 to 80 MHz. Exploiting the accurate energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory, we obtain a radiation energy of 15.8 \pm 0.7 (stat) \pm 6.7 (sys) MeV for cosmic rays with an energy of 1 EeV arriving perpendicularly to a geomagnetic field of 0.24 G, scaling quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy. A comparison with predictions from state-of-the-art first-principle calculations shows agreement with our measurement. The radiation energy provides direct access to the calorimetric energy in the electromagnetic cascade of extensive air showers. Comparison with our result thus allows the direct calibration of any cosmic-ray radio detector against the well-established energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Supplemental material in the ancillary file

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO