Frequency responses of age-structured populations: Pacific salmon as an example

Increasing evidence of the effects of changing climate on physical ocean conditions and long-term changes in fish populations adds to the need to understand the effects of stochastic forcing on marine populations. Cohort resonance is of particular interest because it involves selective sensitivity to specific time scales of environmental variability, including that of mean age of reproduction, and, more importantly, very low frequencies (i.e., trends). We present an age-structured model for two Pacific salmon species with environmental variability in survival rate and in individual growth rate, hence spawning age distribution. We use computed frequency response curves and analysis of the linearized dynamics to obtain two main results. First, the frequency response of the population is affected by the life history stage at which variability affects the population; varying growth rate tends to excite periodic resonance in age structure, while varying survival tends to excite low-frequency fluctuation with more effect on total population size. Second, decreasing adult survival strengthens the cohort resonance effect at all frequencies, a finding that addresses the question of how fishing and climate change will interact.Comment: much revised: the version accepted by Theoretical Population Biolog

Thin film solar cell inflatable ultraviolet rigidizable deployment hinge

A flexible inflatable hinge includes curable resin for rigidly positioning panels of solar cells about the hinge in which wrap around contacts and flex circuits are disposed for routing power from the solar cells to the power bus further used for grounding the hinge. An indium tin oxide and magnesium fluoride coating is used to prevent static discharge while being transparent to ultraviolet light that cures the embedded resin after deployment for rigidizing the inflatable hinge

Multifunctional Deployment Hinges Rigidified by Ultraviolet

Multifunctional hinges have been developed for deploying and electrically connecting panels comprising planar arrays of thin-film solar photovoltaic cells. In the original intended application of these hinges, the panels would be facets of a 32-sided (and approximately spherical) polyhedral microsatellite (see figure), denoted a PowerSphere, that would be delivered to orbit in a compact folded configuration, then deployed by expansion of gas in inflation bladders. Once deployment was complete, the hinges would be rigidified to provide structural connections that would hold the panels in their assigned relative positions without backlash. Such hinges could also be used on Earth for electrically connecting and structurally supporting solar panels that are similarly shipped in compact form and deployed at their destinations. As shown in section A-A in the figure, a hinge of this type is partly integrated with an inflation bladder and partly integrated with the frame of a solar panel. During assembly of the hinge, strip extensions from a flexible circuit harness on the bladder are connected to corresponding thin-film conductors on the solar panel by use of laser welding and wrap-around contacts. The main structural component of the hinge is a layer of glass fiber impregnated with an ultraviolet-curable resin. After deployment, exposure to ultraviolet light from the Sun cures the resin, thereby rigidifying the hinge

Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests

Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests. We first summarized recent fire data to examine variation among the Forests in ignition frequency and burned area in relation to investments in fuel reduction treatments. We then used simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale spatial variation in burn probability and intensity. We also estimated the probability of a mega-fire event on each of the Forests, and the transmission of fires ignited on national forests to the surrounding urban interface. The analysis showed a good correspondence between recent area burned and predictions from the simulation models. The modeling also illustrated the magnitude of the variation in both burn probability and intensity among and within Forests. Simulated burn probabilities in most instances were lower than historical, reflecting fire exclusion on many national forests. Simulated wildfire transmission from national forests to the urban interface was highly variable among the Forests. We discuss how the results of the study can be used to prioritize investments in hazardous fuel reduction within a comprehensive multi-scale risk management framework.Keywords: Risk assessment, Wildfire exposure, Wildfire risk, Burn probability, National fores

A Second Intense Burst with Photospheric Radius Expansion from X2127+119 in M15

In 2000 September we observed a bright X-ray burst from X2127+119 with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. This burst has a multi-peaked profile, a peak luminosity of ~6.5x10^{38} erg s^{-1}, a total integrated energy of ~2x10^{40} ergs, and significant photospheric radius expansion to a maximum extent of R=118+-5 km. From the luminosity-temperature relation during the expansion phase we derive estimates for the gravitational redshift at the neutron star surface, the corrected Eddington luminosity, and the neutron star mass. We detect no slow (~30s) radial oscillations or fast (100-1200 Hz) coherent oscillations or QPO during the burst. The 2000 September event is only the second burst ever observed from this globular cluster binary (in M15 = NGC 7078), and it shares many characteristics with the event detected by Ginga in 1988 October (Dotani et al. 1990; van Paradijs et al. 1990), the key difference probably being the total amount of material consumed in the thermonuclear flash.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures; accepted for publication in Ap

Identification of Common Genetic Variants Influencing Spontaneous Dizygotic Twinning and Female Fertility.

Spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twinning occurs in 1%-4% of women, with familial clustering and unknown physiological pathways and genetic origin. DZ twinning might index increased fertility and has distinct health implications for mother and child. We performed a GWAS in 1,980 mothers of spontaneous DZ twins and 12,953 control subjects. Findings were replicated in a large Icelandic cohort and tested for association across a broad range of fertility traits in women. Two SNPs were identified (rs11031006 near FSHB, p = 1.54 × 10(-9), and rs17293443 in SMAD3, p = 1.57 × 10(-8)) and replicated (p = 3 × 10(-3) and p = 1.44 × 10(-4), respectively). Based on ∼90,000 births in Iceland, the risk of a mother delivering twins increased by 18% for each copy of allele rs11031006-G and 9% for rs17293443-C. A higher polygenic risk score (PRS) for DZ twinning, calculated based on the results of the DZ twinning GWAS, was significantly associated with DZ twinning in Iceland (p = 0.001). A higher PRS was also associated with having children (p = 0.01), greater lifetime parity (p = 0.03), and earlier age at first child (p = 0.02). Allele rs11031006-G was associated with higher serum FSH levels, earlier age at menarche, earlier age at first child, higher lifetime parity, lower PCOS risk, and earlier age at menopause. Conversely, rs17293443-C was associated with later age at last child. We identified robust genetic risk variants for DZ twinning: one near FSHB and a second within SMAD3, the product of which plays an important role in gonadal responsiveness to FSH. These loci contribute to crucial aspects of reproductive capacity and health.Support for the Netherlands Twin Register was obtained from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) grants, 904-61-193,480-04-004, 400-05-717, Addiction-31160008, 911-09-032, Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI –NL, 184.021.007); Royal Netherlands Academy of Science Professor Award (PAH/6635) to DIB; European Research Council (ERC-230374 and ERC-284167); Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06), the Avera Institute, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (USA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH R01 HD042157-01A1). Part of the genotyping was funded by the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health and Grand Opportunity grants 1RC2 MH089951). We acknowledge support from VU Amsterdam and the Institute for Health and Care Research (EMGO+). The Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR) study was supported by grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (241944, 339462, 389927, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389938, 443036, 442915, 442981, 496610, 496739, 552485, 552498, 1050208, 1075175). Dale R. Nyholt was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship (FT0991022), NHMRC Research Fellowship (APP0613674) Schemes and by the Visiting Professors Programme (VPP) of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). Allan F. McRae was supported by an NRMRC Career Development Fellowship (APP1083656). Grant W. Montgomery was supported by NIH grant (HD042157, a collaborative study of the genetics of DZ twinning) and NHMRC Fellowship (GNT1078399). The Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research (MCTFR) was supported in part by USPHS Grants from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (AA09367 and AA11886), and the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA05147, DA13240, and DA024417). We would like to thank also 23andMe's consented research participants for contributing data on age at menarche for the FSHB gene locus and the Twinning Gwas Consortium (TGC). Co-authors from: Finland (Anu Loukola, Juho Wedenoja, Emmi Tikkanen, Beenish Qaiser), Sweden (Nancy Pedersen, Andrea Ganna), United kingdom King's College London (Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology: Pirro Hysi, Massimo Mangino), Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Medical Research Council Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre (Eva Krapohl, Andrew McMillan).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajhg.2016.03.00

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes

Cognitive behavioural therapy for adults with dissociative seizures (CODES): a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Dissociative seizures are paroxysmal events resembling epilepsy or syncope with characteristic features that allow them to be distinguished from other medical conditions. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) plus standardised medical care with standardised medical care alone for the reduction of dissociative seizure frequency. METHODS: In this pragmatic, parallel-arm, multicentre randomised controlled trial, we initially recruited participants at 27 neurology or epilepsy services in England, Scotland, and Wales. Adults (≥18 years) who had dissociative seizures in the previous 8 weeks and no epileptic seizures in the previous 12 months were subsequently randomly assigned (1:1) from 17 liaison or neuropsychiatry services following psychiatric assessment, to receive standardised medical care or CBT plus standardised medical care, using a web-based system. Randomisation was stratified by neuropsychiatry or liaison psychiatry recruitment site. The trial manager, chief investigator, all treating clinicians, and patients were aware of treatment allocation, but outcome data collectors and trial statisticians were unaware of treatment allocation. Patients were followed up 6 months and 12 months after randomisation. The primary outcome was monthly dissociative seizure frequency (ie, frequency in the previous 4 weeks) assessed at 12 months. Secondary outcomes assessed at 12 months were: seizure severity (intensity) and bothersomeness; longest period of seizure freedom in the previous 6 months; complete seizure freedom in the previous 3 months; a greater than 50% reduction in seizure frequency relative to baseline; changes in dissociative seizures (rated by others); health-related quality of life; psychosocial functioning; psychiatric symptoms, psychological distress, and somatic symptom burden; and clinical impression of improvement and satisfaction. p values and statistical significance for outcomes were reported without correction for multiple comparisons as per our protocol. Primary and secondary outcomes were assessed in the intention-to-treat population with multiple imputation for missing observations. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial registry, ISRCTN05681227, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02325544. FINDINGS: Between Jan 16, 2015, and May 31, 2017, we randomly assigned 368 patients to receive CBT plus standardised medical care (n=186) or standardised medical care alone (n=182); of whom 313 had primary outcome data at 12 months (156 [84%] of 186 patients in the CBT plus standardised medical care group and 157 [86%] of 182 patients in the standardised medical care group). At 12 months, no significant difference in monthly dissociative seizure frequency was identified between the groups (median 4 seizures [IQR 0-20] in the CBT plus standardised medical care group vs 7 seizures [1-35] in the standardised medical care group; estimated incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·78 [95% CI 0·56-1·09]; p=0·144). Dissociative seizures were rated as less bothersome in the CBT plus standardised medical care group than the standardised medical care group (estimated mean difference -0·53 [95% CI -0·97 to -0·08]; p=0·020). The CBT plus standardised medical care group had a longer period of dissociative seizure freedom in the previous 6 months (estimated IRR 1·64 [95% CI 1·22 to 2·20]; p=0·001), reported better health-related quality of life on the EuroQoL-5 Dimensions-5 Level Health Today visual analogue scale (estimated mean difference 6·16 [95% CI 1·48 to 10·84]; p=0·010), less impairment in psychosocial functioning on the Work and Social Adjustment Scale (estimated mean difference -4·12 [95% CI -6·35 to -1·89]; p<0·001), less overall psychological distress than the standardised medical care group on the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation-10 scale (estimated mean difference -1·65 [95% CI -2·96 to -0·35]; p=0·013), and fewer somatic symptoms on the modified Patient Health Questionnaire-15 scale (estimated mean difference -1·67 [95% CI -2·90 to -0·44]; p=0·008). Clinical improvement at 12 months was greater in the CBT plus standardised medical care group than the standardised medical care alone group as reported by patients (estimated mean difference 0·66 [95% CI 0·26 to 1·04]; p=0·001) and by clinicians (estimated mean difference 0·47 [95% CI 0·21 to 0·73]; p<0·001), and the CBT plus standardised medical care group had greater satisfaction with treatment than did the standardised medical care group (estimated mean difference 0·90 [95% CI 0·48 to 1·31]; p<0·001). No significant differences in patient-reported seizure severity (estimated mean difference -0·11 [95% CI -0·50 to 0·29]; p=0·593) or seizure freedom in the last 3 months of the study (estimated odds ratio [OR] 1·77 [95% CI 0·93 to 3·37]; p=0·083) were identified between the groups. Furthermore, no significant differences were identified in the proportion of patients who had a more than 50% reduction in dissociative seizure frequency compared with baseline (OR 1·27 [95% CI 0·80 to 2·02]; p=0·313). Additionally, the 12-item Short Form survey-version 2 scores (estimated mean difference for the Physical Component Summary score 1·78 [95% CI -0·37 to 3·92]; p=0·105; estimated mean difference for the Mental Component Summary score 2·22 [95% CI -0·30 to 4·75]; p=0·084), the Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 scale score (estimated mean difference -1·09 [95% CI -2·27 to 0·09]; p=0·069), and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scale depression score (estimated mean difference -1·10 [95% CI -2·41 to 0·21]; p=0·099) did not differ significantly between groups. Changes in dissociative seizures (rated by others) could not be assessed due to insufficient data. During the 12-month period, the number of adverse events was similar between the groups: 57 (31%) of 186 participants in the CBT plus standardised medical care group reported 97 adverse events and 53 (29%) of 182 participants in the standardised medical care group reported 79 adverse events. INTERPRETATION: CBT plus standardised medical care had no statistically significant advantage compared with standardised medical care alone for the reduction of monthly seizures. However, improvements were observed in a number of clinically relevant secondary outcomes following CBT plus standardised medical care when compared with standardised medical care alone. Thus, adults with dissociative seizures might benefit from the addition of dissociative seizure-specific CBT to specialist care from neurologists and psychiatrists. Future work is needed to identify patients who would benefit most from a dissociative seizure-specific CBT approach. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Health Technology Assessment programme

Genetic variation of St. Louis encephalitis virus

St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) has been regularly isolated throughout the Americas since 1933. Previous phylogenetic studies involving 62 isolates have defined seven major lineages (I–VII), further divided into 14 clades. In this study, 28 strains isolated in Texas in 1991 and 2001–2003, and three older, previously unsequenced strains from Jamaica and California were sequenced over the envelope protein gene. The inclusion of these new sequences, and others published since 2001, has allowed better delineation of the previously published SLEV lineages, in particular the clades of lineage II. Phylogenetic analysis of 106 isolates identified 13 clades. All 1991 and 2001–2003 isolates from Nueces, Jefferson and Harris Counties (Texas Gulf Coast) group in clade IIB with other isolates from these counties isolated during the 1980s and 1990s. This lack of evidence for introduction of novel strains into the Texas Gulf Coast over a long period of time is consistent with overwintering of SLEV in this region. Two El Paso isolates, both from 2002, group in clade VA with recent Californian isolates from 1998–2001 and some South American strains with a broad temporal range. Overall, these data are consistent with multiple introductions of SLEV from South America into North America, and provide support for the hypothesis that in most situations, SLEV circulates within a locality, with occasional incursions from other areas. Finally, SLEV has much lower nucleotide (10.1 %) and amino acid variation (2.8 %) than other members of the Japanese encephalitis virus complex (maximum variation 24.6 % nucleotide and 11.8 % amino acid)