35 research outputs found

    Forecasting Inflation Rates with High Order Fuzzy Time Series Approach

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    Enflasyon öngörülerinin elde edilmesi önemli bir ekonomik problemdir.Öngörülerin daha doğru elde edilmesi daha doğru kararlara neden olacaktır. T.C.Merkez bankası her yılın belirli dönemlerinde enflasyon raporları yayınlamaktadır.Raporlarda enflasyon beklentisi anketi sonuçları yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmada tüketicifiyat endeksi yüksek dereceli bulanık zaman serisi yaklaşımı ile öngörülmüştür. Yüksekdereceli bulanık zaman serisi modelinde ilişkilerin belirlenmesi yapay sinir ağları ileyapılmaktadır. Tüketici fiyat endeksi zaman serisi, ayrıca literatürde yer alan bazıbulanık zaman serisi yaklaşımları ile tahmin edilerek, öngörü doğruluğu açısından T.C.Merkez Bankası enflasyon beklentisi anketi sonuçları ile karşılaştırılmıştır. To obtain inflation forecasts is an important economic issue. The moreaccurate forecasts we get implies the more precise decisions we make. The central Bank reports inflation rates in certain periods of every year. In this reports the results ofinflation expectation survey are presented. In this study we use an approach in whichrelationship is determined by artificial neural network in high order fuzzy time seriesmodel. Time series of consumer price index is estimated by both the artificial neuralnetwork based method and some fuzzy approaches which is common in the literature.The results are compared to the results of inflation expectation survey analysisconducted by Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in the aspect of forecastsaccuracy

    Homogeneous transit timing analyses of ten exoplanet systems

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    We study the transit timings of 10 exoplanets in order to investigate potential transit timing variations in them. We model their available ground-based light curves, some presented here and others taken from the literature, and homogeneously measure the mid-transit times. We statistically compare our results with published values and find that the measurement errors agree. However, in terms of recovering the possible frequencies, homogeneous sets can be found to be more useful, of which no statistically relevant example has been found for the planets in our study. We corrected the ephemeris information of all 10 planets we studied and provide these most precise light elements as references for future transit observations with space-borne and ground-based instruments. We found no evidence for secular or periodic changes in the orbital periods of the planets in our sample, including the ultra-short period WASP-103 b, whose orbit is expected to decay on an observable time-scale. Therefore, we derive the lower limits for the reduced tidal quality factors (Q(*)') for the host stars based on best-fitting quadratic functions to their timing data. We also present a global model of all available data for WASP-74 b, which has a Gaia parallax-based distance value similar to 25 per cent larger than the published value

    Efficacy and safety of oral semaglutide with flexible dose adjustment versus sitagliptin in type 2 diabetes (PIONEER 7): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, phase 3a trial

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    Background: Oral semaglutide is the first oral formulation of a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist developed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of flexible dose adjustments of oral semaglutide with sitagliptin 100 mg. Methods: In this 52-week, multicentre, randomised, open-label, phase 3a trial, we recruited patients with type 2 diabetes from 81 sites in ten countries. Patients were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older (19 years or older in South Korea), had type 2 diabetes (diagnosed ≥90 days before screening), HbA1c of 7·5–9·5% (58–80 mmol/mol), and were inadequately controlled on stable daily doses of one or two oral glucose-lowering drugs (for 90 days or more before screening). Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) by use of an interactive web-response system, stratified by background glucose-lowering medication at screening, to oral semaglutide with flexible dose adjustments to 3, 7, or 14 mg once daily or sitagliptin 100 mg once daily. To approximate treatment individualisation in clinical practice, oral semaglutide dose could be adjusted on the basis of prespecified HbA1c and tolerability criteria. Two efficacy-related estimands were prespecified: treatment policy (regardless of treatment discontinuation or use of rescue medication) and trial product (on treatment and without use of rescue medication) for participants randomly assigned to treatment. The primary endpoint was achievement of HbA1c of less than 7% (53 mmol/mol) at week 52 and the confirmatory secondary efficacy endpoint was change in bodyweight from baseline to week 52. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of study drug. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02849080, and European Clinical Trials Database, EudraCT number 2015-005593-38, and an open-label extension is ongoing. Findings: Between Sept 20, 2016, and Feb 7, 2017, of 804 patients assessed for eligibility, 504 were eligible and randomly assigned to oral semaglutide (n=253) or sitagliptin (n=251). Most participants were male (285 [57%] of 504) with a mean age of 57·4 years (SD 9·9). All participants were given at least one dose of their allocated study drug except for one participant in the sitagliptin group. From a mean baseline HbA1c of 8·3% (SD 0·6%; 67 mmol/mol [SD 6·4]), a greater proportion of participants achieved an HbA1c of less than 7% with oral semaglutide than did with sitagliptin (treatment policy estimand: 58% [134 of 230] vs 25% [60 of 238]; and trial product estimand: 63% [123 of 196] vs 28% [52 of 184]). The odds of achieving an HbA1c of less than 7% was significantly better with oral semaglutide than sitagliptin (treatment policy estimand: odds ratio [OR] 4·40, 95% CI 2·89–6·70, p<0·0001; and trial product estimand: 5·54, 3·54–8·68, p<0·0001). The odds of decreasing mean bodyweight from baseline to week 52 were higher with oral semaglutide than with sitagliptin (estimated mean change in bodyweight, treatment policy estimand: −2·6 kg [SE 0·3] vs −0·7 kg [SE 0·2], estimated treatment difference [ETD] −1·9 kg, 95% CI −2·6 to −1·2; p<0·0001; and trial product estimand: −2·9 kg [SE 0·3] vs −0·8 kg [SE 0·3], ETD −2·2 kg, −2·9 to −1·5; p<0·0001). Adverse events occurred in 197 (78%) of 253 participants in the oral semaglutide group versus 172 (69%) of 250 in the sitagliptin group, and nausea was the most common adverse event with oral semaglutide (53 [21%]). Two deaths occurred in the sitagliptin group during the trial. Interpretation: Oral semaglutide, with flexible dose adjustment, based on efficacy and tolerability, provided superior glycaemic control and weight loss compared with sitagliptin, and with a safety profile consistent with subcutaneous GLP-1 receptor agonists. Funding: Novo Nordisk A/S

    Emotion-focused group counseling with Turkish divorced women: a mixed design study

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    This study investigates the effect of an emotion-focused group counseling program (EFGCP) on the emotional awareness and psychological well-being of divorced women. It also investigates their opinions regarding its effectiveness. This mixed-method study used a real experimental design with a 2 × 3 pretest–post-test control group with follow-up tests. It administered 16 EFGCP sessions to the experimental group and collected quantitative data from the Levels of Emotional Awareness Scale and Psychological Well-being Scale and qualitative data from client and group leader diaries and focus group interview forms. The quantitative data were analyzed using a mixed 2 × 3 repeated-measure analysis of variance, while the qualitative data were examined using content analysis. Quantitative findings showed that EFGCP increased the emotional awareness levels of divorced women in the experimental group compared with those in the control group. This effect continued for 3 months, and while it improved their psychological well-being, the improvement was not significant. Meanwhile, qualitative results were grouped under two categories: “contribution” and “emotion-focused group counseling.” The contribution category included four themes, namely, emotional awareness, psychological well-being, adaptation after divorce, and metaphors. However, the emotion-focused group counseling category included techniques, group leader, and recommendations for group structure themes. Implications for further research and practice are discussed in light of the literature. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.This research was financed by the research grant under the doctoral thesis project for The Scientific Research Projects Fund Accounting Office of Ege University (Project No: 13-EĞF-004).13-EĞF-00

    Difficulties in Diagnosing Fabry Disease in Patients with Unexplained Left Ventricular Hypertrophy (LVH): Is the Novel GLA Gene Mutation a Pathogenic Mutation or Polymorphism?

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    Fabry disease (FD) is an X-linked, lysosomal glycosphingolipid storage disorder that occurs very rarely. Cardiac involvement may comprise of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), arrhythmias, conduction abnormalities, heart failure and valvular abnormalities. The goal of this study was to conduct gene analysis for FD in patients suffering from unexplained LVH. 120 patients over the age of 30 who were diagnosed by echocardiography with idiopathic LVH were included in the study. Patients with severe hypertension, intermediate valve disease such as moderate aortic stenosis, known FD, and a family history of autosomal dominant hypertrophic cardiomyopathy were excluded from the study. GLA gene mutations were studied by Sanger sequence analysis in all patients. Of the 120 total patients included in this study, 69 were female (58%) and 51 were male (42%). The mean age was 60.3 ± 15.7. GLA gene mutations were detected in three male patients. The detected mutations are as follows: NM_000169.2:IVS6-10G>A (c.1000–10G>A), NM_000169.2:c.937G>T (p.D313Y) (p.Asp313Tyr) and NM_000169.2:c.941A>T (p.K314M) (p.Lys314Met). Early diagnosis is of vital importance in FD, which can be treated with enzyme replacement. Genetic screening in patients diagnosed with idiopathic LVH by echocardiography is important in the early diagnosis and treatment of FD. Patients over 30 years of age with idiopathic LVH should be screened for FD. Various new polymorphisms can be detected in genetic screening. Identifying new polymorphisms is important for knowing the true mutations in FD
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