Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand

A preference is invariant with respect to a transformation tau if its ranking of acts is unaffected by a reshuffling of the states under tau. We show that any invariant preference must be parametric: there is a unique sufficient set of parameters such that the preference ranks acts according to their expected utility given the parameters. This property holds for all non-trivial preferences, provided only that they are reflexive, transitive, monotone, continuous and mixture linear.

Undescribable Events

We develop a model of undescribable events. Examples of events that are well understood by economic agents but are prohibitively difficult to describe in advance abound in real-life. This notion has also pervaded a substantial amount of economic literature. We put forth a model of such events using a simple co-insurance problem as backdrop. Undescribable events in our model are understood by economic agents - their consequences and probabilities are known - but are such that every finite description of such events necessarily leaves out relevant features that have a non-negligible impact on the parties’ expected utilities. We also show that two key ingredients of our model - probabilities that are finitely additive but fail countable additivity, and a state space that is small (discrete in our model) in a measure-theoretic sense -are necessary ingredients of any model of undescribable events that delivers our results.undescribable events, incomplete contracts, finite invariance, fine variability

Finitely additive representation of Lp spaces

AbstractLet λ¯ be any atomless and countably additive probability measure on the product space {0,1}N with the usual σ-algebra. Then there is a purely finitely additive probability measure λ on the power set of a countable subset T⊂T¯ such that Lp(λ¯) can be isometrically isomorphically embedded as a closed subspace of Lp(λ). The embedding is strict. It is also ‘canonical,’ in the sense that it maps simple and continuous functions on T¯ to their restrictions to T

PRIORITIZING STRESS MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR KAHRAMAA CUSTOMER SERVICE DEPARTMENT: ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS AND SUPERMATRIX APPROACHt

Stress is a ubiquitous phenomenon that has several fiscal and practical consequences on both the employees and the employers. Implementing stress management strategy in the workplace is a critical issue for leaders and managers. Studying stress and reducing its impact on employees is very helpful for organizations. The aim of this paper is to present an applicable and reliable evaluation method to assess decision makers in Kahramaa Customer Service Department to prioritize and select the most appropriate stress reduction strategy. To meet the aims and objectives of the study, the Analytical Network Process (ANP) method is used to determine the best possible strategy to reduce stress based on reliable assessment criteria that are designed to suit the case of Kahramaa Customer Service Department. The research compared the best strategy out of four different stress reduction strategies which are problem-focused strategy, emotional focused strategy, job characteristics and role ambiguity strategy, and corporate wellness program. The study focused on the prioritization of those strategies by assessing the criteria and sub-criteria of each of the dimensions used for the assessment. The criteria importance and relativity were driven by a comprehensive literature review to support the pairwise comparisons using and utilizing experts’ and scholars’ opinions. The research concluded that the most effective strategies for stress reduction are social support strategies, problem-solving strategies, HR strategies, and environmental strategies. The ANP analysis shows that the corporate wellness program is the most effective and optimal strategy for stress reduction for Kahramaa Customer Service Department employees. The corporate wellness program received the highest scores among other strategies based on the criteria selection and prioritization. The assessment criteria, the sub-criteria, and the alternatives can be altered and customized to outfit any government or semi-government organization in Qatar. This study is focused and aims to assess decision makers. Such studies are not common in the Qatari market. Qatar market is rapidly growing. The government and semi-government organizations in Qatar are racing against time to cope with modern business strategies to fulfil their role in the growing eco-system of the country. Such studies can be a simple, straightforward, and reliable approach to assess managers in government and semi-government organizations on how to improve the working conditions of their employees and reduce stress. Reducing stress is an urging matter to organizations such as Kahramaa. Employees perform better when they are not stressed. Their productivity grows, as well as their commitment, dedication, and loyalty. On the other hand, stressed employees will not be creative enough and will not be effective members in the organization. Accordingly, all organizations in Qatar that have the same problem of Kahrama can highly benefit from this study

Determination of unifloral honey volatiles from Centaurea iberica and Zizyphus spina-christi by Solid-Phase Microextraction and Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry

The volatiles of two different unifloral Palestinian honeys from botanical species Centaurea iberica and Zizyphus spina-christi have been investigated for the first time. They were isolated, identified, and quantitatively analyzed using Headspace Solid-Phase Microextraction and Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (HS-SPME-GCMS) methodology. The resulted total ion current (TIC) chromatographic profiles reflected the uniqueness of each type of honey and therefore the proposed procedure can be used to characterize each kind of honey by revealing the absence or presence of certain volatile constituents. A total of 18 compounds were seen in Centaurea iberica honey with phenylacetaldehyde, phenylethylalcohol, 2-ethyl hexanoic acid, 2,4,6-trimethylphenol and nonanoic acid as the principal components, whereas 25 compounds were seen in Zizyphus spinachristi honey with benzaldehyde, phenylacetaldehyde, phenylethylalcohol, benzeneacetonitrile, 2-ethyl hexanoic acid, octanoic acid, 2-methoxy-4-(1-propanol)-6-acetate phenol, nonanoic acid, decanoic acid, 1-hydroxy 2,4,6-trimethylbenzene, and 5-hydroxymethyl- 2-furaldehyde as the principal constituents. Ziziphus spina-christi honey was found to have two unequivocal potential markers: phenylacetonitrile and 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furancarboxaldehyde, while Centaurea Italica honey has only one representative floral origin marker compound: the 2,4,6-trimethylphenol

A Reputational Model of Authority

: The paper provides a model where authority relationships are founded on reputation. The viability of authority is the result of subordinates' free-riding on each other challenges, reducing the frequency of challenges, and making reputations worth defending. The party with authority secures subordinates' compliance through the payment of rents to influence the extent of their failure to act collectively and exacerbate the free-rider problem they face. The model provides a framework to explain how the magnitude and form of these rents depend on the primitives of the environment and on the authority's design of its reputation. Applications to efficiency wages, dictatorships, and the notion of legitimacy are considered.

Aggregate Risk and the Pareto Principle

In the evaluation of public policies, a crucial distinction is between plans that involve purely idiosyncratic risk and those that generate correlated, or aggregate, risk. While natural, this distinction is not captured by standard utilitarian aggregators. In this paper we revisit Harsanyi's (1955) celebrated theory of preferences aggregation and develop a parsimonious generalization of utilitarianism. The theory we propose captures sensitivity to aggregate risk in large populations and can be characterized by two simple axioms of preferences aggregation

A Bayesian Model of Knightian Uncertainty

Abstract: A long tradition suggests a fundamental distinction between situations of risk, where true objective probabilities are known, and unmeasurable uncertainties where no such probabilities are given. This distinction can be captured in a Bayesian model where uncertainty is represented by the agent's subjective belief over the parameter governing future income streams. Whether uncertainty reduces to ordinary risk depends on the agent's ability to smooth consumption. Uncertainty can have a major behavioral and economic impact, including precautionary behavior that may appear overly conservative to an outside observer. We argue that one of the main characteristics of uncertain beliefs is that they are not empirical, in the sense that they cannot be objectively tested to determine whether they are right or wrong. This can confound empirical methods that assume rational expectations.