Climate change may have minor impact on zooplankton functional diversity in the Mediterranean Sea

Aim To assess the impact of climate change on the functional diversity of marine zooplankton communities. Location The Mediterranean Sea. Methods We used the functional traits and geographic distributions of 106 copepod species to estimate the zooplankton functional diversity of Mediterranean surface assemblages for the 1965–1994 and 2069–2098 periods. Multiple environmental niche models were trained at the global scale to project the species habitat suitability in the Mediterranean Sea and assess their sensitivity to climate change predicted by several scenarios. Simultaneously, the species traits were used to compute a functional dendrogram from which we identified seven functional groups and estimated functional diversity through Faith's index. We compared the measured functional diversity to the one originated from null models to test if changes in functional diversity were solely driven by changes in species richness. Results All but three of the 106 species presented range contractions of varying intensity. A relatively low decrease of species richness (−7.42 on average) is predicted for 97% of the basin, with higher losses in the eastern regions. Relative sensitivity to climate change is not clustered in functional space and does not significantly vary across the seven copepod functional groups defined. Changes in functional diversity follow the same pattern and are not different from those that can be expected from changes in richness alone. Main conclusions Climate change is not expected to alter copepod functional traits distribution in the Mediterranean Sea, as the most and the least sensitive species are functionally redundant. Such redundancy should buffer the loss of ecosystem functions in Mediterranean zooplankton assemblages induced by climate change. Because the most negatively impacted species are affiliated to temperate regimes and share Atlantic biogeographic origins, our results are in line with the hypothesis of increasingly more tropical Mediterranean communities

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

Vulnerabilidad de los puertos españoles ante el cambio climático. Vol. 1: Tendencias de variables físicas oceánicas y atmosféricas durante las últimas décadas y proyecciones para el siglo XXI

La presente publicación, el primer volumen de dos libros previstos sobre el tema, se centra en describir los resultados de los trabajos que se han realizado desde Puertos del Estado, el IMEDEA y AEMET para la caracterización de la evolución de las variables climáticas a lo largo del Siglo XXI. Los datos expuestos son el resultado de un enorme esfuerzo de computación numérica establecido a lo largo de 7 años en una serie de proyectos de investigación financiados por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad y por el Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, y su generación ha sido también posible gracias a la colaboración con multitud de centros internacionales de referencia, como MeteoFrance y Mercatorocean en Francia, o el National Oceanography Centre, en Reino Unido. Estos trabajos se enmarcan, además, en la estrategia española sobre cambio climático, y están coordinados con las actividades de la Oficina Española de Cambio Climático

Impact of climate change on the northwestern Mediterranean Sea pelagic planktonic ecosystem and associated carbon cycle

The northwestern Mediterranean Sea (NWMS) is biologically one of the most productive Mediterranean regions. NWMS pelagic planktonic ecosystem is strongly influenced by hydrodynamics, in particular by deep convection that could significantly weaken under the influence of climate change. Here we investigate the response of this ecosystem and associated carbon cycle to the long‐term evolution of oceanic and atmospheric circulations. For that we developed a tridimensional coupled physical‐biogeochemical model and performed two groups of annual simulations under the climate conditions of respectively the 20th and the end of 21st centuries. Our results suggest that the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric circulations does not modify the NWMS pelagic planktonic ecosystem and associated carbon cycle at a first order. However, differences mainly induced by the deep convection weakening and the surface warming are obtained at a second order. The spring bloom occurs 1 month earlier. Resulting from the decrease in nutrients availability, the bottom up control of phytoplankton development and bacteria growth by the nitrogen and phosphorus availability strengthens and the microbial loop intensifies as the small‐sized plankton biomass increases. Carbon net fixation and deep export do not change significantly. The choice of the biogeochemical initial and boundary conditions does not change the representation of the ecosystem seasonal cycle, but the associated uncertainty range can be one order of magnitude larger than the predicted interannual and long‐term variabilities. The uncertainty range of long‐term trends associated with the physical forcing (hydrological, atmospheric, hydrodynamical, and socioeconomic) is much smaller (<10%)

Les ondes infragravitaires et leur rôle éventuel dans la formation de croissants de plage : cas de la plage de Sète

International audienceno abstrac

Using species functional traits to explore the potential impacts of climate change(s) on plankton functional diversity

International audienc

Projected shifts in copepod surface communities in the Mediterranean Sea under several climate change scenarios

International audienceAlthough future increases in water temperature and future changes in regional circulation are expected to have great impacts on the pelagic food-web, estimates focusing on community-level shifts are still lacking for the planktonic compartment. By combining statistical niche models (or species distribution models) with projections from a regional circulation model, the impact of climate change on copepod epipelagic communities is assessed for the Mediterranean Sea. Habitat suitability maps are generated for 106 of the most abundant copepod species to analyze emerging patterns of diversity at the community level. Using variance analysis, we also quantified the uncertainties associated to our modeling strategy (niche model choice, CO2 emission scenario, boundary forcings of the circulation model). Comparing present and future projections, changes in species richness (alpha diversity) and in community composition (beta diversity, decomposed into turnover and nestedness component) are calculated. Average projections show that copepod communities will mainly experience turn-over processes, with little changes in species richness. Species gains are mainly located in the Gulf of Lions, the Northern Adriatic and the Northern Aegean seas. However, projections are highly variable, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We show that such variability is mainly driven by the choice of the niche model, through interactions with the CO2 emission scenario or the boundary forcing of the circulation model can be locally important. Finally, the possible impact of the estimated community changes on zooplanktonic functional and phylogenetic diversity is also assessed. We encourage the enlargement of this type of study to other components of the pelagic food-web, and argue that niche models' outputs should always be given along with a measure of uncertainty, and explained in light of a strong theoretical background