5 research outputs found
Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates
Within (European) healthcare systems, the main goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure—driven by high prices—will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted.The aim of the research published in this paper is to provide more realistic expectations of pharmaceutical expenditure for all key stakeholder groups by estimating pharmaceutical expenditure at ‘net’ prices. We also aim to estimate any gaps developing between list and net pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). We adjusted an established forecast of pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries, from 2017 to 2021, by reflecting discounts and rebates not previously considered, i.e. we moved from ‘list’ to ‘net’ prices, as far as data were available.We found an increasing divergence between expenditure measured at list and net prices. When the forecasts for the five countries were aggregated, the EU5 (unweighted) average historical growth (2010–2016) rate fell from 3.4% compound annual growth rate at list to 2.5% at net. For the forecast, the net growth rate was estimated at 1.5 versus 2.9% at list.Our results suggest that future growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe is likely to be (1) lower than previously understood from forecasts based on list prices and (2) below predicted healthcare expenditure growth in Europe and in line with long-term economic growth rates. For policy makers concerned about the sustainability of pharmaceutical expenditure, this study may provide some comfort, in that the perceived problem is not as large as expected
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The Mars Modelling Information Tool for Engineering (MarMITE): A study on the Impact of Local Dust Storms
Mars exploration is a means of understanding the wider planetary consonance of our solar system. Mars is therefore observed for scientific and engineering endeavours to further current understanding of planetary processes such as; circulation dynamics, aerosol and trace species composition and behaviours and geological composition and chronology. A Martian Global Circulation Model (MGCM) is a successful tool aiding in both scientific (processes) and engineering (entry, descent and landing systems) endeavours. However, MGCM’s require considerable expertise and time to run and therefore cannot be easily utilised by non-specialist users. The purpose of MarMITE is to enable wider-community access to MGCM data, alleviating requirements of expertise and time otherwise needed to operate a GCM. MarMITE consists of a newly developed software interface, making use of the Mars Climate Database (MCD), [1], and newly developed models. MCD data is composed of the statistical and mathematical summary of several MGCM simulations of typical Mars Years, [2].
The MarMITE project constitutes two principal elements; investigative modelling and software development. The investigative modelling element, which quantifies areas of uncertainty in MCD data, is composed of: boundary layer, detached dust layer and local dust storm impact studies, and data assimilation validation exercises.
Here we present modelling results on the impact of local dust storms, which show a succession of mechanistic effects. Our simulated storms show an impact on perturbations in the short and long wave radiative flux fields, resulting in an increased diurnal thermal tide amplitude that galvanises, sometimes quite severely, wind velocity changes throughout the atmosphere.
The author gratefully acknowledges the funding granted under the ESA MarMITE project - contract no: 40001141381115/NL/PA