Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries�apart from Ecuador�across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50 or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10 of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups�the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths

Computer-Aided Assessment of Longitudinal Fundus Photos for Screening Diabetic Retinopathy

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a complications of diabetes mellitus, which progressively damages small retinal blood vessels and result in vision loss if not treated and controlled timely. Because of an increase in the risk of vision loss with the duration of diabetes and the latency between DR progression and early symptoms, diabetic patients require periodic screening. The required regular screening by a trained clinician, based on fundus photos, is time consuming, subjective, and resource demanding. Furthermore, the current practice does not scale well with the global rise in the diabetic population. Computer-aided screening offers a solution to this problem. This thesis presents several building blocks for automated analysis of a series of fundus images for DR.ImPhys/Quantitative Imagin

Detection of retinal changes from illumination normalized fundus images using convolutional neural networks

Automated detection and quantification of spatio-temporal retinal changes is an important step to objectively assess disease progression and treatment effects for dynamic retinal diseases such as diabetic retinopathy (DR). However, detecting retinal changes caused by early DR lesions such as microaneurysms and dot hemorrhages from longitudinal pairs of fundus images is challenging due to intra and inter-image illumination variation between fundus images. This paper explores a method for automated detection of retinal changes from illumination normalized fundus images using a deep convolutional neural network (CNN), and compares its performance with two other CNNs trained separately on color and green channel fundus images. Illumination variation was addressed by correcting for the variability in the luminosity and contrast estimated from a large scale retinal regions. The CNN models were trained and evaluated on image patches extracted from a registered fundus image set collected from 51 diabetic eyes that were screened at two different time-points. The results show that using normalized images yield better performance than color and green channel images, suggesting that illumination normalization greatly facilitates CNNs to quickly and correctly learn distinctive local image features of DR related retinal changes.ImPhys/Quantitative Imagin

Detection of retinal changes from illumination normalized fundus images using convolutional neural networks

Automated detection and quantification of spatio-temporal retinal changes is an important step to objectively assess disease progression and treatment effects for dynamic retinal diseases such as diabetic retinopathy (DR). However, detecting retinal changes caused by early DR lesions such as microaneurysms and dot hemorrhages from longitudinal pairs of fundus images is challenging due to intra and inter-image illumination variation between fundus images. This paper explores a method for automated detection of retinal changes from illumination normalized fundus images using a deep convolutional neural network (CNN), and compares its performance with two other CNNs trained separately on color and green channel fundus images. Illumination variation was addressed by correcting for the variability in the luminosity and contrast estimated from a large scale retinal regions. The CNN models were trained and evaluated on image patches extracted from a registered fundus image set collected from 51 diabetic eyes that were screened at two different time-points. The results show that using normalized images yield better performance than color and green channel images, suggesting that illumination normalization greatly facilitates CNNs to quickly and correctly learn distinctive local image features of DR related retinal changes.</p

An Automated System for the Detection and Classification of Retinal Changes Due to Red Lesions in Longitudinal Fundus Images

People with diabetes mellitus need annual screening to check for the development of diabetic retinopathy. Tracking small retinal changes due to early diabetic retinopathy lesions in longitudinal fundus image sets is challenging due to intra- and inter-visit variability in illumination and image quality, the required high registration accuracy, and the subtle appearance of retinal lesions compared to other retinal features. This paper presents a robust and flexible approach for automated detection of longitudinal retinal changes due to small red lesions by exploiting normalized fundus images that significantly reduce illumination variations and improve the contrast of small retinal features. To detect spatio-temporal retinal changes, the absolute difference between the extremes of the multiscale blobness responses of fundus images from two time-points is proposed as a simple and effective blobness measure. DR related changes are then identified based on several intensity and shape features by a support vector machine classifier. The proposed approach was evaluated in the context of a regular diabetic retinopathy screening program involving subjects ranging from healthy (no retinal lesion) to moderate (with clinically relevant retinal lesions) DR levels. Evaluation shows that the system is able to detect retinal changes due to small red lesions with a sensitivity of 80% at an average false positive rate of 1 and 2.5 lesions per eye on small and large fields-of-view of the retina, respectively.ImPhys/Quantitative Imagin

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Background Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths