Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single model (HadCM3) with multiple parameter perturbations (THC-QUMP). These two ensembles allow us to assess the contribution that both structural and parameter variations across models make to the total uncertainty and to begin to attribute sources of uncertainty in projected changes. We find that parameter uncertainty is an major source of uncertainty in certain aspects of Arctic climate. But also that uncertainties in the mean climate state in the 20th century, most notably in the northward Atlantic ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice volume, are a significant source of uncertainty for projections of future Arctic change. We suggest that better observational constraints on these quantities will lead to significant improvements in the precision of projections of future Arctic climate change

Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the northwest hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities’ long-term survival

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Use of dietary supplements by female seniors in a large Northern California health plan

BACKGROUND: Women aged ≥ 65 years are high utilizers of prescription and over-the-counter medications, and many of these women are also taking dietary supplements. Dietary supplement use by older women is a concern because of possible side effects and drug-supplement interactions. The primary aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive picture of dietary supplement use among older women in a large health plan in Northern California, USA, to raise awareness among health care providers and pharmacists about the need for implementing structural and educational interventions to minimize adverse consequences of self-directed supplement use. A secondary aim was to raise awareness about how the focus on use of herbals and megavitamins that has occurred in most surveys of complementary and alternative therapy use results in a significant underestimate of the proportion of older women who are using all types of dietary supplements for the same purposes. METHODS: We used data about use of different vitamin/mineral (VM) supplements and nonvitamin, nonmineral (NVNM) supplements, including herbals, from a 1999 general health survey mailed to a random sample of adult members of a large Northern California health plan to estimate prevalence of and characteristics associated with supplement use among women aged 65–84 (n = 3,109). RESULTS: Based on weighted data, 84% had in the past 12 months used >1 dietary supplement, 82% a VM, 59% a supplement other than just multivitamin or calcium, 32% an NVNM, and 25% an herbal. Compared to white, nonHispanic women, African-Americans and Latinas were significantly less likely to use VM and NVNM supplements and Asian/Pacific Islanders were less likely to use NVNM supplements. Higher education was strongly associated with use of an NVNM supplement. Prevalence did not differ by number of prescription medications taken. Among white, nonHispanic women, multiple logistic regression models showed that college education, good health, belief that health practices have at least a moderate effect on health, and having arthritis or depression significantly increased likelihood of NVNM use, while having diabetes decreased likelihood. CONCLUSIONS: An extremely high proportion of older women are using dietary supplements other than multivitamins and calcium, many in combination with multiple prescription medications. Increased resources should be devoted to helping clinicians, pharmacists, supplement vendors, and consumers become more aware of the safety, effectiveness, and potential side effects of dietary supplements

Diretrizes para cessação do tabagismo - 2008

Estas diretrizes constituem uma ferramenta atualizada e abrangente para auxiliar o profissional de saúde na abordagem do tabagista, recomendando atitudes baseadas em evidências clínicas como a melhor forma de conduzir cada caso. De forma reduzida e mais objetiva possível, o texto final foi agrupado em dois grandes itens: Avaliação e Tratamento. Os dois itens apresentam comentários e níveis de recomendação das referências utilizadas, bem como algumas propostas de abordagem, como por exemplo, redução de danos, em situações específicas ainda pouco exploradas, como recaídas, tabagismo passivo, tabagismo na categoria médica e uso de tabaco em ambientes específicos.These guidelines are an up-to-date and comprehensive tool to aid health professionals in treating smokers, recommending measures and strategies for managing each case based on clinical evidence. Written in a simplified and objective manner, the text is divided into two principal sections: Evaluation and Treatment. The sections both present comments on and levels of evidence represented by the references cited, as well as some proposals for the reduction of damage and for intervening in specific and still poorly explored situations, such as relapse, passive smoking, physician smoking, and tobacco use in specific environments