Bonn Oriental and Asian Studies insights

BOAS insights is an online, open-access, peer-reviewed journal with articles as well as reviews which cover a variety of topics and themes across Asia, Africa and the Mediterranean. The editors encourage multi-disciplinary approaches which incorporate diverse perspectives and bridge deeply specialized fields. BOAS insights operates out of the Oriental and Asian Studies Department at the University of Bonn and includes an advisory board of senior faculty members. All submissions to the journal are subject to double blind peer-review. Our first issue includes an article which investigates Mongolian communities living in Los Angeles by tracing men engaged in long distance trucking, exploring this diaspora community in the context of modern industry and capitalist conceptions of time. Our second article brings to light only recently published survey data from 1970’s Iran. Pulling from media and film studies, the article challenges pre-conceived notions and status-quo interpretations of Iranian national identity creation through a greater consideration of the influences of radio, television, and cinema. Our review of new works includes a review of a German translation of the Turkish novel Madonna’nın Son Hayali, Madonnas letzter Traum (Madonna’s Last Dream) and the first post-Yazidi-Kurdish work of fiction in German, Die Sommer (The Summers) by Ronya Othmann.</p

Factors Affecting Academic Failure In Region II Medical Universities Students

Academic failure is an important issue in medical students which, if not controlled, will cause a drop in the academic level of physicians and paramedics in the coming years. Therefore, identification of factors affecting academic failure can influence the future planning of universities and reduce those factors and help effectiveness and flourishing of these students. This study aimed to investigate the factors influencing academic failure in medical universities' students in the region II of country Which and its results can be applicable to Whole country. This study is a case-control study including all students with academic failure in the academic year 2009 in Semnan, Mashhad, Gorgan, Shahroud, Sabzevar, Gonabad and Bojnoord Universities of Medical Sciences (Probation, increased educational semesters, failure in comprehensive medical tests).Data on students with academic failure and other students was collected and analysed using SPSS software by chi-square test at 5% significance level. The prevalence of academic failure in men was higher than women (N=571 , 5.33%). There was a significant difference between two groups in terms of gender, type of university, degree and entry quota (P &lt;0.05). Given the significant differences in some demographic and educational characteristics between students with and without academic failure, special attention and planning in this area are necessary

Hepatic cysteine sulphinic acid decarboxylase depletion and defective taurine metabolism in a rat partial nephrectomy model of chronic kidney disease

© 2021, The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.Background: Taurine depletion occurs in patients with end-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). In contrast, in the absence of CKD, plasma taurine is reported to increase following dietary L-glutamine supplementation. This study tested the hypothesis that taurine biosynthesis decreases in a rat CKD model, but is rectified by L-glutamine supplementation. Methods: CKD was induced by partial nephrectomy in male Sprague-Dawley rats, followed 2 weeks later by 2 weeks of 12% w/w L-glutamine supplemented diet (designated NxT) or control diet (NxC). Sham-operated control rats (S) received control diet. Results: Taurine concentration in plasma, liver and skeletal muscle was not depleted, but steady-state urinary taurine excretion (a measure of whole-body taurine biosynthesis) was strongly suppressed (28.3 ± 8.7 in NxC rats versus 78.5 ± 7.6 μmol/24 h in S, P < 0.05), accompanied by reduced taurine clearance (NxC 0.14 ± 0.05 versus 0.70 ± 0.11 ml/min/Kg body weight in S, P < 0.05). Hepatic expression of mRNAs encoding key enzymes of taurine biosynthesis (cysteine sulphinic acid decarboxylase (CSAD) and cysteine dioxygenase (CDO)) showed no statistically significant response to CKD (mean relative expression of CSAD and CDO in NxC versus S was 0.91 ± 0.18 and 0.87 ± 0.14 respectively). Expression of CDO protein was also unaffected. However, CSAD protein decreased strongly in NxC livers (45.0 ± 16.8% of that in S livers, P < 0.005). L-glutamine supplementation failed to rectify taurine biosynthesis or CSAD protein expression, but worsened CKD (proteinuria in NxT 12.5 ± 1.2 versus 6.7 ± 1.5 mg/24 h in NxC, P < 0.05). Conclusion: In CKD, hepatic CSAD is depleted and taurine biosynthesis impaired. This is important in view of taurine’s reported protective effect against cardio-vascular disease - the leading cause of death in human CKD.Peer reviewe

A Comprehensive Review on the Metabolic Cooperation Role of Nuclear Factor E2-Related Factor 2 and Fibroblast Growth Factor 21 against Homeostasis Changes in Diabetes

Objective: Type 1 and type 2 diabetes are associated with metabolic disorders including hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, and inflammation, leading to the production of reactive oxygen species and nitrogen activators. In these cases, some of the body’s innate factors are activated to cope with these dangerous situations. The purpose of the review is to explain the collaboration between the nuclear factor E2-related factor 2 (NRF2) and fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) in homeostasis and body metabolism with a focus on diabetes. Materials and methods: This review is based on searching the PubMed database, SCOPUS, Elsevier and citation lists of relevant publications. Subject heading and key words used include diabetes, oxidative stress, inflammation, NRF2, and FGF21. Only articles in English were included. Results: NRF2 and FGF21 are two attractive biomarkers for the diagnosis of specific metabolic disorders and therapeutic targets, which have been implicated as therapeutic targets for the management of diabetic complications. The combination of both factors leads to the regulation of antioxidant and anti-inflammatory responses and metabolic pathways. Conclusions: Given most studies of NRF2- and FGF21-based therapeutic interventions in animal models and the possibility of not achieving the same results in humans, further clinical studies are needed to determine the efficacy of NRF2 and FGF21 in treatment of patients with diabetes

Comparative study of the electrochemical, biomedical, and thermal properties of natural and synthetics nanomaterials

In this research, natural nanomaterials including cellulose nanocrystal (CNC), nanofiber cellulose (NFC), and synthetic nanoparticles such as carbon nanofiber (CNF) and carbon nanotube (CNT) with different structures, sizes, and surface areas were produced and analyzed. The most significant contribution of this study is to evaluate and compare these nanomaterials based on the effects of their structures and morphologies on their electrochemical, biomedical, and thermal properties. Based on the obtained results, the natural nanomaterials with low dimension and surface area have zero cytotoxicity effects on the living cells at 12.5 and 3.125 μg/ml concentrations of NFC and CNC, respectively. Meanwhile, synthetic nanomaterials with the high surface area around 15.3–21.1 m2 /g and significant thermal stability (480 °C–600 °C) enhance the output of electrode by creating a higher surface area and decreasing the current flow resistance

Clinical Findings, Bacterial Agents, and Antibiotic Resistance in Children with Spontaneous Peritonitis in Southern Iran: An Academic Tertiary Referral Center’s Experience

Background: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a fatal complication of ascites fluid infection. The causes of SBP in children differ from those in adults, and these bacteria are frequently resistant to antibiotics. Therefore, this study investigated the clinical findings, bacterial etiology, and antimicrobial resistance in children with SBP.Methods: This study was conducted on all new pediatric ascites patients, who were admitted to the Department of Pediatric Gastroenterology, Namazi Hospital, affiliated with Shiraz University of Medical Sciences (Shiraz, Iran) from 2021 to 2022. Required data such as demographic information, and clinical information such as complete blood count (CBC), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), Gram staining, blood culture by Automated Blood Culture System (BACTEC), and antibiogram of ascites fluids by disc diffusion method were all collected. Finally, the data were statistically analyzed using SPSS Software (version 26). Besides, the t test, Fisher’s exact, Mann-Whitney, and Chi square tests were used for data analysis. In all tests, P≤0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results: The present study examined 62 children with ascites of which 18 (29%) had SBP. The median (IQR) age was 2.5 (8.1) years. Thirty-four (54.8%) of the participants were girls. Abdominal pain was the most common clinical manifestation in patients (54%), and there was a significant association between abdominal pain and SBP (P=0.02). In 12 positive ascites fluid cultures, coagulase-negative staphylococci had the highest frequency (25%), followed by Escherichia coli (16.7%). Third-generation cephalosporins had a 25% sensitivity in the total positive cultures. This sensitivity was 33.3% for Gram-negative cultures and 16.6% for Gram-positive cultures.Conclusion: Although third-generation cephalosporins are recommended as the primary antibiotic for the empirical treatment of SBP, the present study found high bacterial resistance. Finally, empirical therapy should be tailored to each region’s bacterial resistance features

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. FINDINGS: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. INTERPRETATION: The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively. FUNDING: The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38)

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions