Quantitative evidence synthesis methods for the assessment of the effectiveness of treatment sequences for clinical and economic decision-making: a review and taxonomy of simplifying assumptions

Sequential use of alternative treatments for chronic conditions represents a complex intervention pathway; previous treatment and patient characteristics affect both the choice and effectiveness of subsequent treatments. This paper critically explores the methods for quantitative evidence synthesis of the effectiveness of sequential treatment options within a health technology assessment (HTA) or similar process. It covers methods for developing summary estimates of clinical effectiveness or the clinical inputs for the cost-effectiveness assessment and can encompass any disease condition. A comprehensive review of current approaches is presented, which considers meta-analytic methods for assessing the clinical effectiveness of treatment sequences and decision-analytic modelling approaches used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment sequences. Estimating the effectiveness of a sequence of treatments is not straightforward or trivial and is severely hampered by the limitations of the evidence base. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of sequences were often absent or very limited. In the absence of sufficient RCTs of whole sequences, there is no single best way to evaluate treatment sequences; however, some approaches could be re-used or adapted, sharing ideas across different disease conditions. Each has advantages and disadvantages, and is influenced by the evidence available, extent of treatment sequences (number of treatment lines or permutations), and complexity of the decision problem. Due to the scarcity of data, modelling studies applied simplifying assumptions to data on discrete treatments. A taxonomy for all possible assumptions was developed, providing a unique resource to aid the critique of existing decision-analytic models

Maternal and child health nurse screening and care for mothers experiencing domestic violence (MOVE): A cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Mothers are at risk of domestic violence (DV) and its harmful consequences postpartum. There is no evidence to date for sustainability of DV screening in primary care settings. We aimed to test whether a theory-informed, maternal and child health (MCH) nurse-designed model increased and sustained DV screening, disclosure, safety planning and referrals compared with usual care. METHODS: Cluster randomised controlled trial of 12 month MCH DV screening and care intervention with 24 month follow-up. The study was set in community-based MCH nurse teams (91 centres, 163 nurses) in north-west Melbourne, Australia. Eight eligible teams were recruited. Team randomisation occurred at a public meeting using opaque envelopes. Teams were unable to be blinded. The intervention was informed by Normalisation Process Theory, the nurse-designed good practice model incorporated nurse mentors, strengthened relationships with DV services, nurse safety, a self-completion maternal health screening checklist at three or four month consultations and DV clinical guidelines. Usual care involved government mandated face-to-face DV screening at four weeks postpartum and follow-up as required. Primary outcomes were MCH team screening, disclosure, safety planning and referral rates from routine government data and a postal survey sent to 10,472 women with babies ≤ 12 months in study areas. Secondary outcomes included DV prevalence (Composite Abuse Scale, CAS) and harm measures (postal survey). RESULTS: No significant differences were found in routine screening at four months (IG 2,330/6,381 consultations (36.5 %) versus CG 1,792/7,638 consultations (23.5 %), RR = 1.56 CI 0.96-2.52) but data from maternal health checklists (n = 2,771) at three month IG consultations showed average screening rates of 63.1 %. Two years post-intervention, IG safety planning rates had increased from three (RR 2.95, CI 1.11-7.82) to four times those of CG (RR 4.22 CI 1.64-10.9). Referrals remained low in both intervention groups (IGs) and comparison groups (CGs) (<1 %). 2,621/10,472 mothers (25 %) returned surveys. No difference was found between arms in preference or comfort with being asked about DV or feelings about self. CONCLUSION: A nurse-designed screening and care model did not increase routine screening or referrals, but achieved significantly increased safety planning over 36 months among postpartum women. Self-completion DV screening was welcomed by nurses and women and contributed to sustainability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12609000424202, 10/03/2009

Validating child vaccination status in a demographic surveillance system using data from a clinical cohort study: evidence from rural South Africa

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; Childhood vaccination coverage can be estimated from a range of sources. This study aims to validate vaccination data from a longitudinal population-based demographic surveillance system (DSS) against data from a clinical cohort study.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Methods:&lt;/b&gt; The sample includes 821 children in the Vertical Transmission cohort Study (VTS), who were born between December 2001 and April 2005, and were matched to the Africa Centre DSS, in northern KwaZulu-Natal. Vaccination information in the surveillance was collected retrospectively, using standardized questionnaires during bi-annual household visits, when the child was 12 to 23 months of age. DSS vaccination information was based on extraction from a vaccination card or, if the card was not available, on maternal recall. In the VTS, vaccination data was collected at scheduled maternal and child clinic visits when a study nurse administered child vaccinations. We estimated the sensitivity of the surveillance in detecting vaccinations conducted as part of the VTS during these clinic visits.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; Vaccination data in matched children in the DSS was based on the vaccination card in about two-thirds of the cases and on maternal recall in about one-third. The sensitivity of the vaccination variables in the surveillance was high for all vaccines based on either information from a South African Road-to-Health (RTH) card (0.94-0.97) or maternal recall (0.94-0.98). Addition of maternal recall to the RTH card information had little effect on the sensitivity of the surveillance variable (0.95-0.97). The estimates of sensitivity did not vary significantly, when we stratified the analyses by maternal antenatal HIV status. Addition of maternal recall of vaccination status of the child to the RTH card information significantly increased the proportion of children known to be vaccinated across all vaccines in the DSS.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Conclusion:&lt;/b&gt; Maternal recall performs well in identifying vaccinated children aged 12-23 months (both in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected mothers), with sensitivity similar to information extracted from vaccination cards. Information based on both maternal recall and vaccination cards should be used if the aim is to use surveillance data to identify children who received a vaccination.&lt;/p&gt

Soil methane sink capacity response to a long-term wildfire chronosequence in Northern Sweden

Boreal forests occupy nearly one fifth of the terrestrial land surface and are recognised as globally important regulators of carbon (C) cycling and greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon sequestration processes in these forests include assimilation of CO2 into biomass and subsequently into soil organic matter, and soil microbial oxidation of methane (CH4). In this study we explored how ecosystem retrogression, which drives vegetation change, regulates the important process of soil CH4 oxidation in boreal forests. We measured soil CH4 oxidation processes on a group of 30 forested islands in northern Sweden differing greatly in fire history, and collectively representing a retrogressive chronosequence, spanning 5000 years. Across these islands the build-up of soil organic matter was observed to increase with time since fire disturbance, with a significant correlation between greater humus depth and increased net soil CH4 oxidation rates. We suggest that this increase in net CH4 oxidation rates, in the absence of disturbance, results as deeper humus stores accumulate and provide niches for methanotrophs to thrive. By using this gradient we have discovered important regulatory controls on the stability of soil CH4 oxidation processes that could not have not been explored through shorter-term experiments. Our findings indicate that in the absence of human interventions such as fire suppression, and with increased wildfire frequency, the globally important boreal CH4 sink could be diminished

Informatics Enhanced SNP Microarray Analysis of 30 Miscarriage Samples Compared to Routine Cytogenetics

Purpose: The metaphase karyotype is often used as a diagnostic tool in the setting of early miscarriage; however this technique has several limitations. We evaluate a new technique for karyotyping that uses single nucleotide polymorphism microarrays (SNP). This technique was compared in a blinded, prospective fashion, to the traditional metaphase karyotype. Methods: Patients undergoing dilation and curettage for first trimester miscarriage between February and August 2010 were enrolled. Samples of chorionic villi were equally divided and sent for microarray testing in parallel with routine cytogenetic testing. Results: Thirty samples were analyzed, with only four discordant results. Discordant results occurred when the entire genome was duplicated or when a balanced rearrangement was present. Cytogenetic karyotyping took an average of 29 days while microarray-based karytoyping took an average of 12 days. Conclusions: Molecular karyotyping of POC after missed abortion using SNP microarray analysis allows for the ability to detect maternal cell contamination and provides rapid results with good concordance to standard cytogenetic analysis

Treatment outcomes of new tuberculosis patients hospitalized in Kampala, Uganda: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In most resource limited settings, new tuberculosis (TB) patients are usually treated as outpatients. We sought to investigate the reasons for hospitalisation and the predictors of poor treatment outcomes and mortality in a cohort of hospitalized new TB patients in Kampala, Uganda. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Ninety-six new TB patients hospitalised between 2003 and 2006 were enrolled and followed for two years. Thirty two were HIV-uninfected and 64 were HIV-infected. Among the HIV-uninfected, the commonest reasons for hospitalization were low Karnofsky score (47%) and need for diagnostic evaluation (25%). HIV-infected patients were commonly hospitalized due to low Karnofsky score (72%), concurrent illness (16%) and diagnostic evaluation (14%). Eleven HIV uninfected patients died (mortality rate 19.7 per 100 person-years) while 41 deaths occurred among the HIV-infected patients (mortality rate 46.9 per 100 person years). In all patients an unsuccessful treatment outcome (treatment failure, death during the treatment period or an unknown outcome) was associated with duration of TB symptoms, with the odds of an unsuccessful outcome decreasing with increasing duration. Among HIV-infected patients, an unsuccessful treatment outcome was also associated with male sex (P = 0.004) and age (P = 0.034). Low Karnofsky score (aHR = 8.93, 95% CI 1.88 - 42.40, P = 0.001) was the only factor significantly associated with mortality among the HIV-uninfected. Mortality among the HIV-infected was associated with the composite variable of CD4 and ART use, with patients with baseline CD4 below 200 cells/µL who were not on ART at a greater risk of death than those who were on ART, and low Karnofsky score (aHR = 2.02, 95% CI 1.02 - 4.01, P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: Poor health status is a common cause of hospitalisation for new TB patients. Mortality in this study was very high and associated with advanced HIV Disease and no use of ART

Cell-free (RNA) and cell-associated (DNA) HIV-1 and postnatal transmission through breastfeeding

&lt;p&gt;Introduction - Transmission through breastfeeding remains important for mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) in resource-limited settings. We quantify the relationship between cell-free (RNA) and cell-associated (DNA) shedding of HIV-1 virus in breastmilk and the risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission in the first 6 months postpartum.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Materials and Methods - Thirty-six HIV-positive mothers who transmitted HIV-1 by breastfeeding were matched to 36 non-transmitting HIV-1 infected mothers in a case-control study nested in a cohort of HIV-infected women. RNA and DNA were quantified in the same breastmilk sample taken at 6 weeks and 6 months. Cox regression analysis assessed the association between cell-free and cell-associated virus levels and risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results - There were higher median levels of cell-free than cell-associated HIV-1 virus (per ml) in breastmilk at 6 weeks and 6 months. Multivariably, adjusting for antenatal CD4 count and maternal plasma viral load, at 6 weeks, each 10-fold increase in cell-free or cell-associated levels (per ml) was significantly associated with HIV-1 transmission but stronger for cell-associated than cell-free levels [2.47 (95% CI 1.33–4.59) vs. aHR 1.52 (95% CI, 1.17–1.96), respectively]. At 6 months, cell-free and cell-associated levels (per ml) in breastmilk remained significantly associated with HIV-1 transmission but was stronger for cell-free than cell-associated levels [aHR 2.53 (95% CI 1.64–3.92) vs. 1.73 (95% CI 0.94–3.19), respectively].&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions - The findings suggest that cell-associated virus level (per ml) is more important for early postpartum HIV-1 transmission (at 6 weeks) than cell-free virus. As cell-associated virus levels have been consistently detected in breastmilk despite antiretroviral therapy, this highlights a potential challenge for resource-limited settings to achieve the UNAIDS goal for 2015 of eliminating vertical transmission. More studies would further knowledge on mechanisms of HIV-1 transmission and help develop more effective drugs during lactation.&lt;/p&gt

Evidence for distinct coastal and offshore communities of bottlenose dolphins in the north east Atlantic.

Bottlenose dolphin stock structure in the northeast Atlantic remains poorly understood. However, fine scale photo-id data have shown that populations can comprise multiple overlapping social communities. These social communities form structural elements of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) [corrected] populations, reflecting specific ecological and behavioural adaptations to local habitats. We investigated the social structure of bottlenose dolphins in the waters of northwest Ireland and present evidence for distinct inshore and offshore social communities. Individuals of the inshore community had a coastal distribution restricted to waters within 3 km from shore. These animals exhibited a cohesive, fission-fusion social organisation, with repeated resightings within the research area, within a larger coastal home range. The offshore community comprised one or more distinct groups, found significantly further offshore (>4 km) than the inshore animals. In addition, dorsal fin scarring patterns differed significantly between inshore and offshore communities with individuals of the offshore community having more distinctly marked dorsal fins. Specifically, almost half of the individuals in the offshore community (48%) had characteristic stereotyped damage to the tip of the dorsal fin, rarely recorded in the inshore community (7%). We propose that this characteristic is likely due to interactions with pelagic fisheries. Social segregation and scarring differences found here indicate that the distinct communities are likely to be spatially and behaviourally segregated. Together with recent genetic evidence of distinct offshore and coastal population structures, this provides evidence for bottlenose dolphin inshore/offshore community differentiation in the northeast Atlantic. We recommend that social communities should be considered as fundamental units for the management and conservation of bottlenose dolphins and their habitat specialisations

Neuroinflammation and structural injury of the fetal ovine brain following intra-amniotic Candida albicans exposure.

BackgroundIntra-amniotic Candida albicans (C. Albicans) infection is associated with preterm birth and high morbidity and mortality rates. Survivors are prone to adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. The mechanisms leading to these adverse neonatal brain outcomes remain largely unknown. To better understand the mechanisms underlying C. albicans-induced fetal brain injury, we studied immunological responses and structural changes of the fetal brain in a well-established translational ovine model of intra-amniotic C. albicans infection. In addition, we tested whether these potential adverse outcomes of the fetal brain were improved in utero by antifungal treatment with fluconazole.MethodsPregnant ewes received an intra-amniotic injection of 10(7) colony-forming units C. albicans or saline (controls) at 3 or 5 days before preterm delivery at 0.8 of gestation (term ~ 150 days). Fetal intra-amniotic/intra-peritoneal injections of fluconazole or saline (controls) were administered 2 days after C. albicans exposure. Post mortem analyses for fungal burden, peripheral immune activation, neuroinflammation, and white matter/neuronal injury were performed to determine the effects of intra-amniotic C. albicans and fluconazole treatment.ResultsIntra-amniotic exposure to C. albicans caused a severe systemic inflammatory response, illustrated by a robust increase of plasma interleukin-6 concentrations. Cerebrospinal fluid cultures were positive for C. albicans in the majority of the 3-day C. albicans-exposed animals whereas no positive cultures were present in the 5-day C. albicans-exposed and fluconazole-treated animals. Although C. albicans was not detected in the brain parenchyma, a neuroinflammatory response in the hippocampus and white matter was seen which was characterized by increased microglial and astrocyte activation. These neuroinflammatory changes were accompanied by structural white matter injury. Intra-amniotic fluconazole reduced fetal mortality but did not attenuate neuroinflammation and white matter injury.ConclusionsIntra-amniotic C. albicans exposure provoked acute systemic and neuroinflammatory responses with concomitant white matter injury. Fluconazole treatment prevented systemic inflammation without attenuating cerebral inflammation and injury