Cohabitation : the Pan-America View

In this concluding chapter we reflect on a series of issues of both a methodological and substantive nature encountered in this research project. Firstly, we must realize that the use of individual census records not only opened vast possibilities, but also entails a number of limitations. Secondly, the very large sample sizes allowed for the disaggregation of national trends into far more detailed spatial, ethnic and educational patterns. This, in its turn, allowed us to adopt a "geo-historical" view of the rise of cohabitation for almost the entire American continent, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego. Furthermore, statistical analyses could be performed at the individual and contextual levels simultaneously. Results show that the effects of social stratification, religion and ethnicity are continuing to be of major importance. This not only holds at the individual level, but at the contextual level as well. Nevertheless, an entirely new wave of change started rolling over the pre-existing patterns from the 1970s onward. These trends are following a firm course, irrespective of the economic ups and downs. The Americas, as opposed to many Asian societies and Africa, are now following in the European footsteps, be it with their own distinct and path-dependent characteristics associated with regionally varying historical antecedents

Inequality in Human Development: An Empirical Assessment of 32 Countries

One of the most frequent critiques of the HDI is that is does not take into account inequality within countries in its three dimensions. In this paper, we apply a simply approach to compute the three components and the overall HDI for quintiles of the income distribution. This allows a comparison of the level in human development of the poor with the level of the non-poor within countries, but also across countries. This is an application of the method presented in Grimm et al. (World Development 36(12):2527–2546, 2008) to a sample of 21 low and middle income countries and 11 industrialized countries. In particular the inclusion of the industrialized countries, which were not included in the previous work, implies to deal with a number of additional challenges, which we outline in this paper. Our results show that inequality in human development within countries is high, both in developed and industrialized countries. In fact, the HDI of the lowest quintiles in industrialized countries is often below the HDI of the richest quintile in many middle income countries. We also find, however, a strong overall negative correlation between the level of human development and inequality in human development

Age-specific mortality patterns in Central Mozambique during and after the end of the Civil War

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, vigorous debate has developed concerning how conflicts contribute to the spread of infectious diseases, and in particular, the role of post-conflict situations in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. This study details the age-specific mortality patterns among the population in the central provincial capital of Beira, Mozambique, during and after the Mozambican civil war which ended in 1992.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data was collected from the death register at Beira's Central Hospital between 1985 and 2003 and descriptively analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The data show two distinct periods: before and after the peace agreements in 1992. Before 1992 (during the civil war), the main impact of mortality was on children below 5 years of age, including still births, accounting for 58% of all deaths. After the war ended in 1992, the pattern shifted dramatically and rapidly to the 15-49 year old age group which accounted for 49% of all deaths by 2003.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>As under-5 mortality rates were decreasing at the end of the conflict, rates for 24-49 year old adults began to dramatically increase due to AIDS. This study demonstrates that strategies can be implemented during conflicts to decrease mortality rates in one vulnerable population but post-conflict dynamics can bring together other factors which contribute to the rapid spread of other infectious diseases in other vulnerable populations.</p

Instability, investment, disasters, and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change

Social Transmission and the Spread of Modern Contraception in Rural Ethiopia

Socio-economic development has proven to be insufficient to explain the time and pace of the human demographic transition. Shifts to low fertility norms have thus been thought to result from social diffusion, yet to date, micro-level studies are limited and are often unable to disentangle the effect of social transmission from that of extrinsic factors. We used data which included the first ever use of modern contraception among a population of over 900 women in four villages in rural Ethiopia, where contraceptive prevalence is still low (<20%). We investigated whether the time of adoption of modern contraception is predicted by (i) the proportion of ever-users/non ever-users within both women and their husbands' friendships networks and (ii) the geographic distance to contraceptive ever-users. Using a model comparison approach, we found that individual socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. parity, education) and a religious norm are the most likely explanatory factors of temporal and spatial patterns of contraceptive uptake, while the role of person-to-person contact through either friendship or spatial networks remains marginal. Our study has broad implications for understanding the processes that initiate transitions to low fertility and the uptake of birth control technologies in the developing world

Maternal Risk of Breeding Failure Remained Low throughout the Demographic Transitions in Fertility and Age at First Reproduction in Finland

Radical declines in fertility and postponement of first reproduction during the recent human demographic transitions have posed a challenge to interpreting human behaviour in evolutionary terms. This challenge has stemmed from insufficient evolutionary insight into individual reproductive decision-making and the rarity of datasets recording individual long-term reproductive success throughout the transitions. We use such data from about 2,000 Finnish mothers (first births: 1880s to 1970s) to show that changes in the maternal risk of breeding failure (no offspring raised to adulthood) underlay shifts in both fertility and first reproduction. With steady improvements in offspring survival, the expected fertility required to satisfy a low risk of breeding failure became lower and observed maternal fertility subsequently declined through an earlier age at last reproduction. Postponement of the age at first reproduction began when this risk approximated zero–even for mothers starting reproduction late. Interestingly, despite vastly differing fertility rates at different stages of the transitions, the number of offspring successfully raised to breeding per mother remained relatively constant over the period. Our results stress the importance of assessing the long-term success of reproductive strategies by including measures of offspring quality and suggest that avoidance of breeding failure may explain several key features of recent life-history shifts in industrialized societies

Illegal births and legal abortions – the case of China

BACKGROUND: China has a national policy regulating the number of children that a woman is allowed to have. The central concept at the individual level application is "illegal pregnancy". The purpose of this article is to describe and problematicize the concept of illegal pregnancy and its use in practice. METHODS: Original texts and previous published and unpublished reports and statistics were used. RESULTS: By 1979 the Chinese population policy was clearly a policy of controlling population growth. For a pregnancy to be legal, it has to be defined as such according to the family-level eligibility rules, and in some places it has to be within the local quota. Enforcement of the policy has been pursued via the State Family Planning (FP) Commission and the Communist Party (CP), both of which have a functioning vertical structure down to the lowest administrative units. There are various incentives and disincentives for families to follow the policy. An extensive system has been created to keep the contraceptive use and pregnancy status of all married women at reproductive age under constant surveillance. In the early 1990s FP and CP officials were made personally responsible for meeting population targets. Since 1979, abortion has been available on request, and the ratio of legal abortions to birth increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. Similar to what happens in other Asian countries with low fertility rates and higher esteem for boys, both national- and local-level data show that an unnaturally greater number of boys than girls are registered as having been born. CONCLUSION: Defining a pregnancy as "illegal" and carrying out the surveillance of individual women are phenomena unique in China, but this does not apply to other features of the policy. The moral judgment concerning the policy depends on the basic question of whether reproduction should be considered as an individual or social decision

Towards a science of climate and energy choices

The linked problems of energy sustainability and climate change are among the most complex and daunting facing humanity at the start of the twenty-first century. This joint Nature Energy and Nature Climate Change Collection illustrates how understanding and addressing these problems will require an integrated science of coupled human and natural systems; including technological systems, but also extending well beyond the domain of engineering or even economics. It demonstrates the value of replacing the stylized assumptions about human behaviour that are common in policy analysis, with ones based on data-driven science. We draw from and engage articles in the Collection to identify key contributions to understanding non-technological factors connecting economic activity and greenhouse gas emissions, describe a multi-dimensional space of human action on climate and energy issues, and illustrate key themes, dimensions and contributions towards fundamental understanding and informed decision making