Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics

The SIR ('susceptible-infectious-recovered') formulation is used to uncover the generic spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of COVID-19 basic reproduction number Ro inferred from SIR formulation. The work here shows that there is global convergence (i.e., across many nations) to an uncontrolled Ro = 4.5 that describes the early time spread of COVID-19. This value is in agreement with independent estimates from other sources reviewed here and adds to the growing consensus that the early estimate of Ro = 2.2 adopted by the World Health Organization is low. A reconciliation between power-law and exponential growth predictions is also featured within the confines of the SIR formulation. The effects of testing ramp-up and the role of 'super-spreaders' on the inference of Ro are analyzed using idealized scenarios. Implications for evaluating potential control strategies from this uncontrolled Ro are briefly discussed in the context of the maximum possible infected fraction of the population (needed to assess health care capacity) and mortality (especially in the USA given diverging projections). Model results indicate that if intervention measures still result in Ro > 2.7 within 44 days after first infection, intervention is unlikely to be effective in general for COVID-19

Magnetic coupling at rare earth ferromagnet/transition metal ferromagnet interfaces: A comprehensive study of Gd/Ni.

Thin film magnetic heterostructures with competing interfacial coupling and Zeeman energy provide a fertile ground to study phase transition between different equilibrium states as a function of external magnetic field and temperature. A rare-earth (RE)/transition metal (TM) ferromagnetic multilayer is a classic example where the magnetic state is determined by a competition between the Zeeman energy and antiferromagnetic interfacial exchange coupling energy. Technologically, such structures offer the possibility to engineer the macroscopic magnetic response by tuning the microscopic interactions between the layers. We have performed an exhaustive study of nickel/gadolinium as a model system for understanding RE/TM multilayers using the element-specific measurement technique x-ray magnetic circular dichroism, and determined the full magnetic state diagrams as a function of temperature and magnetic layer thickness. We compare our results to a modified Stoner-Wohlfarth-based model and provide evidence of a thickness-dependent transition to a magnetic fan state which is critical in understanding magnetoresistance effects in RE/TM systems. The results provide important insight for spintronics and superconducting spintronics where engineering tunable magnetic inhomogeneity is key for certain applications.T.D.C.H. and J.W.A.R. acknowledge funding from the EPSRC [EP/I038047/1], the EPSRC Programme grant “Superconducting Spintronics” [EP/N017242/1] and the Leverhulme Trust [IN-2013-033]. S.B. acknowledges support from the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation. X.L.W. and J.H.Z. acknowledge support from the MOST of China [2015CB921500]. Research at SLAC and Stanford was supported through the Stanford Institute for Materials and Energy Sciences (SIMES) which like the SSRL user facility and the scanning SQUID microscopy is funded by the Office of Basic Energy Sciences of the U.S. Department of Energy.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep30092

Anomaly Cancelation in Field Theory and F-theory on a Circle

We study the manifestation of local gauge anomalies of four- and six-dimensional field theories in the lower-dimensional Kaluza-Klein theory obtained after circle compactification. We identify a convenient set of transformations acting on the whole tower of massless and massive states and investigate their action on the low-energy effective theories in the Coulomb branch. The maps employ higher-dimensional large gauge transformations and precisely yield the anomaly cancelation conditions when acting on the one-loop induced Chern-Simons terms in the three- and five-dimensional effective theory. The arising symmetries are argued to play a key role in the study of the M-theory to F-theory limit on Calabi-Yau manifolds. For example, using the fact that all fully resolved F-theory geometries inducing multiple Abelian gauge groups or non-Abelian groups admit a certain set of symmetries, we are able to generally show the cancelation of pure Abelian or pure non-Abelian anomalies in these models.Comment: 48 pages, 2 figures; v2: typos corrected, comments on circle fluxes adde

Translating clinicians' beliefs into implementation interventions (TRACII) : a protocol for an intervention modeling experiment to change clinicians' intentions to implement evidence-based practice

Background: Biomedical research constantly produces new findings, but these are not routinely incorporated into health care practice. Currently, a range of interventions to promote the uptake of emerging evidence are available. While their effectiveness has been tested in pragmatic trials, these do not form a basis from which to generalise to routine care settings. Implementation research is the scientific study of methods to promote the uptake of research findings, and hence to reduce inappropriate care. As clinical practice is a form of human behaviour, theories of human behaviour that have proved to be useful in other settings offer a basis for developing a scientific rationale for the choice of interventions. Aims: The aims of this protocol are 1) to develop interventions to change beliefs that have already been identified as antecedents to antibiotic prescribing for sore throats, and 2) to experimentally evaluate these interventions to identify those that have the largest impact on behavioural intention and behavioural simulation. Design: The clinical focus for this work will be the management of uncomplicated sore throat in general practice. Symptoms of upper respiratory tract infections are common presenting features in primary care. They are frequently treated with antibiotics, and research evidence is clear that antibiotic treatment offers little or no benefit to otherwise healthy adult patients. Reducing antibiotic prescribing in the community by the "prudent" use of antibiotics is seen as one way to slow the rise in antibiotic resistance, and appears safe, at least in children. However, our understanding of how to do this is limited. Participants will be general medical practitioners. Two theory-based interventions will be designed to address the discriminant beliefs in the prescribing of antibiotics for sore throat, using empirically derived resources. The interventions will be evaluated in a 2 × 2 factorial randomised controlled trial delivered in a postal questionnaire survey. Two outcome measures will be assessed: behavioural intention and behavioural simulation.This study is funded by the European Commission Research Directorate as part of a multi-partner program: Research Based Education and Quality Improvement (ReBEQI): A Framework and tools to develop effective quality improvement programs in European healthcare. (Proposal No: QLRT-2001-00657)

Impact of exposure of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus to polyhexanide in vitro and in vivo.

Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) resistant to decolonization agents such as mupirocin and chlorhexidine increase the need to develop alternative decolonization molecules. The absence of reported adverse reactions and bacterial resistance to polyhexanide makes it an excellent choice as topical antiseptic. In the present study we evaluated the in vitro and in vivo capacity to generate strains with reduced polyhexanide susceptibility and cross-resistance with chlorhexidine and/or antibiotics currently used in clinic. Here we report the in vitro emergence of reduced-susceptibility to polyhexanide by prolonged-stepwise exposure to low concentrations in broth culture. Reduced susceptibility to polyhexanide was associated with genomic changes in the mprF and purR genes, and with concomitant decreased susceptibility to daptomycin and other cell-wall active antibiotics. However, the in vitro emergence of reduced-susceptibility to polyhexanide did not result in cross-resistance to chlorhexidine antiseptic. During in vivo polyhexanide clinical decolonization treatment, neither polyhexanide reduced-susceptibility nor chlorhexidine cross-resistance were observed. Together, these observations suggest that polyhexanide could be used safely for decolonisation of carriers of chlorhexidine-resistant S. aureus strains but highlight the need for careful use of polyhexanide at low antiseptic concentrations

Release of Lungworm Larvae from Snails in the Environment: Potential for Alternative Transmission Pathways

Background: Gastropod-borne parasites may cause debilitating clinical conditions in animals and humans following the consumption of infected intermediate or paratenic hosts. However, the ingestion of fresh vegetables contaminated by snail mucus and/or water has also been proposed as a source of the infection for some zoonotic metastrongyloids (e.g., Angiostrongylus cantonensis). In the meantime, the feline lungworms Aelurostrongylus abstrusus and Troglostrongylus brevior are increasingly spreading among cat populations, along with their gastropod intermediate hosts. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of alternative transmission pathways for A. abstrusus and T. brevior L3 via the mucus of infected Helix aspersa snails and the water where gastropods died. In addition, the histological examination of snail specimens provided information on the larval localization and inflammatory reactions in the intermediate host. Methodology/Principal Findings: Twenty-four specimens of H. aspersa received ~500 L1 of A. abstrusus and T. brevior, and were assigned to six study groups. Snails were subjected to different mechanical and chemical stimuli throughout 20 days in order to elicit the production of mucus. At the end of the study, gastropods were submerged in tap water and the sediment was observed for lungworm larvae for three consecutive days. Finally, snails were artificially digested and recovered larvae were counted and morphologically and molecularly identified. The anatomical localization of A. abstrusus and T. brevior larvae within snail tissues was investigated by histology. L3 were detected in the snail mucus (i.e., 37 A. abstrusus and 19 T. brevior) and in the sediment of submerged specimens (172 A. abstrusus and 39 T. brevior). Following the artificial digestion of H. aspersa snails, a mean number of 127.8 A. abstrusus and 60.3 T. brevior larvae were recovered. The number of snail sections positive for A. abstrusus was higher than those for T. brevior. Conclusions: Results of this study indicate that A. abstrusus and T. brevior infective L3 are shed in the mucus of H. aspersa or in water where infected gastropods had died submerged. Both elimination pathways may represent alternative route(s) of environmental contamination and source of the infection for these nematodes under field conditions and may significantly affect the epidemiology of feline lungworms. Considering that snails may act as intermediate hosts for other metastrongyloid species, the environmental contamination by mucus-released larvae is discussed in a broader context

Effects of lowering body temperature via hyperhydration, with and without glycerol ingestion and practical precooling on cycling time trial performance in hot and humid conditions

Background: Hypohydration and hyperthermia are factors that may contribute to fatigue and impairment of endurance performance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of combining glycerol hyperhydration and an established precooling technique on cycling time trial performance in hot environmental conditions.Methods: Twelve well-trained male cyclists performed three 46.4-km laboratory-based cycling trials that included two climbs, under hot and humid environmental conditions (33.3 ± 1.1°C; 50 ± 6% r.h.). Subjects were required to hyperhydrate with 25 g.kg-1 body mass (BM) of a 4°C beverage containing 6% carbohydrate (CON) 2.5 h prior to the time trial. On two occasions, subjects were also exposed to an established precooling technique (PC) 60 min prior to the time trial, involving 14 g.kg-1 BM ice slurry ingestion and applied iced towels over 30 min. During one PC trial, 1.2 g.kg-1 BM glycerol was added to the hyperhydration beverage in a double-blind fashion (PC+G). Statistics used in this study involve the combination of traditional probability statistics and a magnitude-based inference approach.Results: Hyperhydration resulted in large reductions (-0.6 to -0.7°C) in rectal temperature. The addition of glycerol to this solution also lowered urine output (330 ml, 10%). Precooling induced further small (-0.3°C) to moderate (-0.4°C) reductions in rectal temperature with PC and PC+G treatments, respectively, when compared with CON (0.0°C, P\u3c0.05). Overall, PC+G failed to achieve a clear change in cycling performance over CON, but PC showed a possible 2% (30 s, P=0.02) improvement in performance time on climb 2 compared to CON. This improvement was attributed to subjects\u27 lower perception of effort reported over the first 10 km of the trial, despite no clear performance change during this time. No differences were detected in any other physiological measurements throughout the time trial.Conclusions: Despite increasing fluid intake and reducing core temperature, performance and thermoregulatory benefits of a hyperhydration strategy with and without the addition of glycerol, plus practical precooling, were not superior to hyperhydration alone. Further research is warranted to further refine preparation strategies for athletes competing in thermally stressful events to optimize health and maximize performance outcomes

The Anti-Ischemic and Anti-Anginal Properties of Statins

Angina pectoris resulting from myocardial ischemia afflicts half of all patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). Chronic angina remains a major public health burden despite state-of-the-art therapies, and improvement in survival from myocardial infarction and CHD has only increased its prevalence. There is growing experimental and clinical evidence pointing to the anti-ischemic and anti-anginal properties of statins. Some data suggest that the degree of anti-ischemic efficacy of statins may be comparable to the current standard pharmacologic and mechanical strategies. The pleiotropic effects of statins are postulated to be primarily responsible for their anti-ischemic and anti-anginal properties. These include improvement of endothelial function, enhancement of the ischemic vasodilatory response, modulation of inflammation, and protection from ischemia-reperfusion injury. The anti-ischemic effects of statins further strengthen their role as a crucial component of the optimal medical therapy for CHD