Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Reported food intake and distribution of body fat: a repeated cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Body mass, as well as distribution of body fat, are predictors of both diabetes and cardiovascular disease. In Northern Sweden, despite a marked increase in average body mass, prevalence of diabetes was stagnant and myocardial infarctions decreased. A more favourable distribution of body fat is a possible contributing factor. This study investigates the relative importance of individual food items for time trends in waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) on a population level. METHODS: Independent cross-sectional surveys conducted in 1986, 1990, 1994 and 1999 in the two northernmost counties of Sweden with a common population of 250000. Randomly selected age stratified samples, altogether 2982 men and 3087 women aged 25–64 years. Questionnaires were completed and anthropometric measurements taken. For each food item, associations between frequency of consumption and waist and hip circumferences were estimated. Partial regression coefficients for every level of reported intake were multiplied with differences in proportion of the population reporting the corresponding levels of intake in 1986 and 1999. The sum of these product terms for every food item was the respective estimated impact on mean circumference. RESULTS: Time trends in reported food consumption associated with the more favourable gynoid distribution of adipose tissue were increased use of vegetable oil, pasta and 1.5% fat milk. Trends associated with abdominal obesity were increased consumption of beer in men and higher intake of hamburgers and French fried potatoes in women. CONCLUSION: Food trends as markers of time trends in body fat distribution have been identified. The method is a complement to conventional approaches to establish associations between food intake and disease risk on a population level

Disease acceptance and adherence to imatinib in Taiwanese chronic myeloid leukaemia outpatients

Background The launch of imatinib has turned chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) into a chronic illness due to the dramatic improvement in survival. Several recent studies have demonstrated that poor adherence to imatinib may hamper the therapeutic outcomes and result in increased medical expenditures, whilst research on exploring the reasons for non-adherence to imatinib is still limited. Objective This study aimed to explore the experience of patients as they journey through their CML treatments and associated imatinib utilisation in order to understand the perceptions, attitudes and concerns that may influence adherence to imatinib treatment. Setting This study was conducted at oncology outpatient clinics in a medical centre in southern Taiwan. Methods CML patients who regularly attended the oncology outpatient clinics to receive imatinib treatment from October 2011 to March 2012 were invited to participate in the study. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were used to explore patients’ experiences and views of their treatment, their current CML status and CML-related health conditions, their concerns about imatinib treatment and imatinib-taking behaviours. Patient interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed using the constant comparison approach. Main outcome measure Themes related to patients’ views of the disease and health conditions, worries and concerns influencing imatinib utilisation behaviours are reported. Results Forty-two CML patients participated in the interviews. The emerging themes included: acceptance of current disease and health status, misconceptions about disease progression, factors associated with adherence to imatinib, concerns and management of adverse drug effects. Participants regarded CML as a chronic disease but had misconceptions about disease progression, therapeutic monitoring, resistance to imatinib and symptoms of side effects. Participants were generally adherent to imatinib and favoured long-term prescriptions to avoid regular outpatient visits for medication refills. Experiencing adverse effect was the main reason influencing adherence and led to polypharmacy. Most participants altered medicine-taking behaviours to maintain long-term use of imatinib. Conclusion Taiwanese CML patients are adherent to imatinib but report changing their medication-taking behaviour due to adverse drug effects and associated polypharmacy. Patients’ misconceptions of the disease and medication suggests that it is necessary to improve communication between patients and healthcare professionals. Routinely providing updated information as part of the patient counselling process should be considered as a means of improving this communication

Differential Glucose-Regulation of MicroRNAs in Pancreatic Islets of Non-Obese Type 2 Diabetes Model Goto-Kakizaki Rat

The Goto-Kakizaki (GK) rat is a well-studied non-obese spontaneous type 2 diabetes (T2D) animal model characterized by impaired glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) in the pancreatic beta cells. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short regulatory RNAs involved in many fundamental biological processes. We aim to identify miRNAs that are differentially-expressed in the pancreatic islets of the GK rats and investigate both their short- and long term glucose-dependence during glucose-stimulatory conditions

Modified constraint-induced movement therapy or bimanual occupational therapy following injection of Botulinum toxin-A to improve bimanual performance in young children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy: a randomised controlled trial methods paper

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Use of Botulinum toxin-A (BoNT-A) for treatment of upper limb spasticity in children with cerebral palsy has become routine clinical practice in many paediatric treatment centres worldwide. There is now high-level evidence that upper limb BoNT-A injection, in combination with occupational therapy, improves outcomes in children with cerebral palsy at both the body function/structure and activity level domains of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. Investigation is now required to establish what amount and specific type of occupational therapy will further enhance functional outcomes and prolong the beneficial effects of BoNT-A.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>A randomised, controlled, evaluator blinded, prospective parallel-group trial. Eligible participants were children aged 18 months to 6 years, diagnosed with spastic hemiplegic cerebral palsy and who were able to demonstrate selective motor control of the affected upper limb. Both groups received upper limb injections of BoNT-A. Children were randomised to either the modified constraint-induced movement therapy group (experimental) or bimanual occupational therapy group (control). Outcome assessments were undertaken at pre-injection and 1, 3 and 6 months following injection of BoNT-A. The primary outcome measure was the Assisting Hand Assessment. Secondary outcomes included: the Quality of Upper Extremity Skills Test; Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory; Canadian Occupational Performance Measure; Goal Attainment Scaling; Pediatric Motor Activity Log; modified Ashworth Scale and; the modified Tardieu Scale.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The aim of this paper is to describe the methodology of a randomised controlled trial comparing the effects of modified constraint-induced movement therapy (a uni-manual therapy) versus bimanual occupational therapy (a bimanual therapy) on improving bimanual upper limb performance of children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy following upper limb injection of BoNT-A. The paper outlines the background to the study, the study hypotheses, outcome measures and trial methodology. It also provides a comprehensive description of the interventions provided.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ACTRN12605000002684</p

Eucapnic Voluntary Hyperpnea: Gold Standard for Diagnosing Exercise-Induced Bronchoconstriction in Athletes?

In athletes, a secure diagnos is of exercise-induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) is dependent on objective testing. Evaluating spirometric indices of airflow before and following an exercise bout is intuitively the optimal means for the diagnosis; however, this approach is recognized as having several key limitations. Accordingly, alternative indirect bronchoprovocation tests have been recommended as surrogate means for obtaining a diagnosis of EIB. Of these tests, it is often argued that the eucapnic voluntary hyperpnea (EVH) challenge represents the ‘gold standard’. This article provides a state-of-the-art review of EVH, including an overview of the test methodology and its interpretation. We also address the performance of EVH against the other functional and clinical approaches commonly adopted for the diagnosis of EIB. The published evidence supports a key role for EVH in the diagnostic algorithm for EIB testing in athletes. However, its wide sensitivity and specificity and poor repeatability preclude EVH from being termed a ‘gold standard’ test for EIB

Factors that could explain the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes among adults in a Canadian province: a critical review and analysis

Abstract: Background: The prevalence of diabetes has increased since the last decade in New Brunswick. Identifying factors contributing to the increase in diabetes prevalence will help inform an action plan to manage the condition. The objective was to describe factors that could explain the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in New Brunswick since 2001. Methods: A critical literature review was conducted to identify factors potentially responsible for an increase in prevalence of diabetes. Data from various sources were obtained to draw a repeated cross-sectional (2001–2014) description of these factors concurrently with changes in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in New Brunswick. Linear regressions, Poisson regressions and Cochran Armitage analysis were used to describe relationships between these factors and time. Results: Factors identified in the review were summarized in five categories: individual-level risk factors, environmental risk factors, evolution of the disease, detection effect and global changes. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has increased by 120% between 2001 and 2014. The prevalence of obesity, hypertension, prediabetes, alcohol consumption, immigration and urbanization increased during the study period and the consumption of fruits and vegetables decreased which could represent potential factors of the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Physical activity, smoking, socioeconomic status and education did not present trends that could explain the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes. During the study period, the mortality rate and the conversion rate from prediabetes to diabetes decreased and the incidence rate increased. Suggestion of a detection effect was also present as the number of people tested increased while the HbA1c and the age at detection decreased. Period and birth cohort effect were also noted through a rise in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes across all age groups, but greater increases were observed among the younger cohorts. Conclusions: This study presents a comprehensive overview of factors potentially responsible for population level changes in prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Recent increases in type 2 diabetes in New Brunswick may be attributable to a combination of some individual-level and environmental risk factors, the detection effect, the evolution of the disease and global changes