Functional identification of biological neural networks using reservoir adaptation for point processes

The complexity of biological neural networks does not allow to directly relate their biophysical properties to the dynamics of their electrical activity. We present a reservoir computing approach for functionally identifying a biological neural network, i.e. for building an artificial system that is functionally equivalent to the reference biological network. Employing feed-forward and recurrent networks with fading memory, i.e. reservoirs, we propose a point process based learning algorithm to train the internal parameters of the reservoir and the connectivity between the reservoir and the memoryless readout neurons. Specifically, the model is an Echo State Network (ESN) with leaky integrator neurons, whose individual leakage time constants are also adapted. The proposed ESN algorithm learns a predictive model of stimulus-response relations in in vitro and simulated networks, i.e. it models their response dynamics. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicates that these ESNs can imitate the response signal of a reference biological network. Reservoir adaptation improved the performance of an ESN over readout-only training methods in many cases. This also held for adaptive feed-forward reservoirs, which had no recurrent dynamics. We demonstrate the predictive power of these ESNs on various tasks with cultured and simulated biological neural networks

External validation of prognostic models to predict stillbirth using the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network database: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Objective Stillbirth is a potentially preventable complication of pregnancy. Identifying women at high risk of stillbirth can guide decisions on the need for closer surveillance and timing of delivery in order to prevent fetal death. Prognostic models have been developed to predict the risk of stillbirth, but none has yet been validated externally. In this study, we externally validated published prediction models for stillbirth using individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess their predictive performance. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, DH-DATA and AMED databases were searched from inception to December 2020 to identify studies reporting stillbirth prediction models. Studies that developed or updated prediction models for stillbirth for use at any time during pregnancy were included. IPD from cohorts within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network were used to validate externally the identified prediction models whose individual variables were available in the IPD. The risk of bias of the models and cohorts was assessed using the Prediction study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). The discriminative performance of the models was evaluated using the C-statistic, and calibration was assessed using calibration plots, calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large. Performance measures were estimated separately in each cohort, as well as summarized across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. Clinical utility was assessed using net benefit. Results Seventeen studies reporting the development of 40 prognostic models for stillbirth were identified. None of the models had been previously validated externally, and the full model equation was reported for only one-fifth (20%, 8/40) of the models. External validation was possible for three of these models, using IPD from 19 cohorts (491 201 pregnant women) within the IPPIC Network database. Based on evaluation of the model development studies, all three models had an overall high risk of bias, according to PROBAST. In the IPD meta-analysis, the models had summary C-statistics ranging from 0.53 to 0.65 and summary calibration slopes ranging from 0.40 to 0.88, with risk predictions that were generally too extreme compared with the observed risks. The models had little to no clinical utility, as assessed by net benefit. However, there remained uncertainty in the performance of some models due to small available sample sizes. Conclusions The three validated stillbirth prediction models showed generally poor and uncertain predictive performance in new data, with limited evidence to support their clinical application. The findings suggest methodological shortcomings in their development, including overfitting. Further research is needed to further validate these and other models, identify stronger prognostic factors and develop more robust prediction models. (c) 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.Peer reviewe

Holocene development and anthropogenic disturbance of a shallow lake system in Central Ireland recorded by diatoms

Three cores from two connected lakes in Central Ireland (Lough Kinale and Derragh Lough) were investigated using diatom analysis to establish the Holocene development of the lacustrine system, any local variations within the lakes and any anthropogenic influences. The study area was situated in a lowland location and the lakes were shallow, unstratified and interconnected. Litho-and bio-stratigraphical analyses of the lake cores and deposits beneath a mire separating the two lakes showed the changing spatial configuration of the lake system in the early Holocene and the separation of the initial lake into three basins (cf. lacustrine cells) and finally into two interlinked lakes. The evolution of the lake system is conceptualised as the development of distinct lacustrine cells, and its sediments have recorded changes in the physical (geography, depth and sedimentation) and chemical (water chemistry) properties of the lakes inferred through diatom analyses. The longest sequence, from the early Holocene, records fluctuating lake levels and these are correlated with geomorphological mapping and surveying of palaeoshorelines. The diatom assemblages of the upper 2 m of the three cores, covering approximately the last 2000–3000 radiocarbon years show considerable difference in trophic status and life-form categories. This is related to the location of the cores in the lake and also the distance from human settlement with particular reference to proximity to crannog (artificial island) construction and use. The most central core from the deepest part of Lough Kinale has the least representation of the human settlement and agricultural activity in the catchment and on the fringes of the lake, whereas the core taken from the edge of a crannog is able to identify when construction and use of the crannog occurred. The local nature of the palaeoecological response to human activity due to incomplete water mixing has the advantage of allowing the lake sediment cores to be used to determine spatially discrete settlement patterns