Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022022A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop-down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response.LJG and ACM were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science's Climate Directorate. ACM also acknowledges support from the ERC ACCI project no. 267760 and an AXA Postdoctoral Fellowship. SI and AAS were supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). LJG and JAA were supported by a grant from the National Environmental Research Council

Comparing the Clinical and Histological Diagnosis of Leprosy and Leprosy Reactions in the INFIR Cohort of Indian Patients with Multibacillary Leprosy

Leprosy affects skin and peripheral nerves. Although we have antibiotics to treat the mycobacterial infection, the accompanying inflammation is a major part of the disease process. This can worsen after starting antibacterial treatment with episodes of immune mediated inflammation, so called reactions. These are associated with worsening of nerve damage. However, diagnosing these reactions is not straightforward. They can be diagnosed clinically by examination or by microscopic examination of the skin biopsies. We studied a cohort of 303 newly diagnosed leprosy patients in India and compared the diagnosis rates by clinical examination and microscopy and found that the microscopic diagnosis has higher rates of diagnosis for both types of reaction. This suggests that clinicians and pathologists have different thresholds for diagnosing reactions. More work is needed to optimise both clinical and pathological diagnosis. In this cohort 43% of patients had Borderline Tuberculoid leprosy, an immunologically active type, and 20% of the biopsies showed only minimal inflammation, perhaps these patients had very early disease or self-healing. The public health implication of this work is that leprosy centres need to be supported by pathologists to help with the clinical management of difficult cases

Mining and analysis of audiology data to find significant factors associated with tinnitus masker

Objectives: The objective of this research is to find the factors associated with tinnitus masker from the literature, and by using the large amount of audiology data available from a large NHS (National Health Services, UK) hearing aid clinic. The factors evaluated were hearing impairment, age, gender, hearing aid type, mould and clinical comments. Design: The research includes literature survey for factors associated with tinnitus masker, and performs the analysis of audiology data using statistical and data mining techniques. Setting: This research uses a large audiology data but it also faced the problem of limited data for tinnitus. Participants: It uses 1,316 records for tinnitus and other diagnoses, and 10,437 records of clinical comments from a hearing aid clinic. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The research is looking for variables associated with tinnitus masker, and in future, these variables can be combined into a single model to develop a decision support system to predict about tinnitus masker for a patient. Results: The results demonstrated that tinnitus maskers are more likely to be fit to individuals with milder forms of hearing loss, and the factors age, gender, type of hearing aid and mould were all found significantly associated with tinnitus masker. In particular, those patients having Age<=55 years were more likely to wear a tinnitus masker, as well as those with milder forms of hearing loss. ITE (in the ear) hearing aids were also found associated with tinnitus masker. A feedback on the results of association of mould with tinnitus masker from a professional audiologist of a large NHS (National Health Services, UK) was also taken to better understand them. The results were obtained with different accuracy for different techniques. For example, the chi-squared test results were obtained with 95% accuracy, for Support and Confidence only those results were retained which had more than 1% Support and 80% Confidence. Conclusions: The variables audiograms, age, gender, hearing aid type and mould were found associated with the choice of tinnitus masker in the literature and by using statistical and data mining techniques. The further work in this research would lead to the development of a decision support system for tinnitus masker with an explanation that how that decision was obtained

Effectiveness of Oral Nutritional Supplementation for Older Women after a Fracture: Rationale, Design and Study of the Feasibility of a Randomized Controlled Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malnutrition is a problem for many older people recovering from a hip and other major fractures. Oral supplementation with high calorie high protein nutrients is a simple intervention that may help older people with fractures to improve their recovery in terms of rehabilitation time, length of hospital stay and mortality. This paper reports a pilot study to test the feasibility of a trial initiated in a hospital setting with an oral supplement to older people with recent fractures.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>A randomized controlled trial with 44 undernourished participants admitted to a hospital following a fracture. The intervention group (n = 23) received a high calorie high protein supplement for forty days in addition to their diet of choice. The control group (n = 21) received high protein milk during their hospital stay in addition to their diet of choice and their usual diet when discharged from hospital.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All participants were women and their mean age was 85.3 (± 6.1) years. Twenty nine (65%) participants had a hip fracture. At baseline no differences were measured between the two groups regarding their nutritional status, their cognitive ability or their abilities in activities of daily living. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control group with reference to nutritional or functional parameters at 40 day and 4 month follow-ups. Median length of stay in hospital was 18.0 days, with 12 participants being readmitted for a median of 7.0 days.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It is feasible to perform a randomised trial in a hospital and community setting to test the effect of an oral high energy high protein supplement for older people. Due to the limited number of participants and incomplete adherence with use of the supplements no conclusion can be drawn about the efficacy or effectiveness of this intervention.</p

A leprosy clinical severity scale for erythema nodosum leprosum: An international, multicentre validation study of the ENLIST ENL Severity Scale.

OBJECTIVES: We wished to validate our recently devised 16-item ENLIST ENL Severity Scale, a clinical tool for measuring the severity of the serious leprosy associated complication of erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL). We also wished to assess the responsiveness of the ENLIST ENL Severity Scale in detecting clinical change in patients with ENL. METHODS: Participants, recruited from seven centres in six leprosy endemic countries, were assessed using the ENLIST ENL Severity Scale by two researchers, one of whom categorised the severity of ENL. At a subsequent visit a further assessment using the scale was made and both participant and physician rated the change in ENL using the subjective categories of "Much better", "somewhat better", "somewhat worse" and "much worse" compared with "No change" or "about the same". RESULTS: 447 participants were assessed with the ENLIST ENL Severity Scale. The Cronbach alpha of the scale and each item was calculated to determine the internal consistency of the scale. The ENLIST ENL Severity Scale had good internal consistency and this improved following removal of six items to give a Cronbach's alpha of 0.77. The cut off between mild ENL and more severe disease was 9 determined using ROC curves. The minimal important difference of the scale was determined to be 5 using both participant and physician ratings of change. CONCLUSIONS: The 10-item ENLIST ENL Severity Scale is the first valid, reliable and responsive measure of ENL severity and improves our ability to assess and compare patients and their treatments in this severe and difficult to manage complication of leprosy. The ENLIST ENL Severity Scale will assist physicians in the monitoring and treatment of patients with ENL. The ENLIST ENL Severity Scale is easy to apply and will be useful as an outcome measure in treatment studies and enable the standardisation of other clinical and laboratory ENL research

Evidence of superficial knowledge regarding antibiotics and their use: Results of two cross-sectional surveys in an urban informal settlement in Kenya

<div><p>We assessed knowledge and practices related to antibiotic use in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Surveys was employed at the beginning (entry) and again at the end (exit) of a 5-month longitudinal study of AMR. Two-hundred households were interviewed at entry, of which 149 were also interviewed at exit. The majority (>65%) of respondents in both surveys could name at least one antibiotic, with amoxicillin and cotrimoxazole jointly accounting for 85% and 77% of antibiotics mentioned during entry and exit, respectively. More than 80% of respondents felt antibiotics should not be shared or discontinued following the alleviation of symptoms. Nevertheless, 66% and 74% of respondents considered antibiotics effective for treating colds and flu in the entry and exit surveys, respectively. There was a high (87%, entry; 70% exit) level of reported antibiotic use (past 12 months) mainly for colds/flu, coughs and fever, with >80% of respondents obtaining antibiotics from health facilities and pharmacies. Less than half of respondents remembered getting information on the correct use of antibiotics, although 100% of those who did reported improved attitudes towards antibiotic use. Clinicians and community pharmacists were highly trusted information sources. Paired household responses (n = 149) generally showed improved knowledge and attitudes by the exit survey although practices were largely unchanged. Weak agreement (κ = -0.003 to 0.22) between survey responses suggest both that unintended learning had not occurred, and that participant responses were not based on established knowledge or behaviors. Targeted public education regarding antibiotics is needed to address this gap.</p></div

Mitochondrial DNA and trade data support multiple origins of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in Brazil

The Old World bollworm Helicoverpa armigera&nbsp;is now established in Brazil but efforts to identify incursion origin(s) and pathway(s) have met with limited success due to the patchiness of available data. Using international agricultural/horticultural commodity trade data and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and cytochrome b (Cyt b) gene markers, we inferred the origins and incursion pathways into Brazil. We detected 20 mtDNA haplotypes from six Brazilian states, eight of which were new to our 97 global COI-Cyt b&nbsp;haplotype database. Direct sequence matches indicated five Brazilian haplotypes had Asian, African, and European origins. We identified 45 parsimoniously informative sites and multiple substitutions per site within the concatenated (945 bp) nucleotide dataset, implying that probabilistic phylogenetic analysis methods are needed. High diversity and signatures of uniquely shared haplotypes with diverse localities combined with the trade data suggested multiple incursions and introduction origins in Brazil. Increasing agricultural/horticultural trade activities between the Old and New Worlds represents a significant biosecurity risk factor. Identifying pest origins will enable resistance profiling that reflects countries of origin to be included when developing a resistance management strategy, while identifying incursion pathways will improve biosecurity protocols and risk analysis at biosecurity hotspots including national ports

Candidate gene analysis of spontaneous preterm delivery: New insights from re-analysis of a case-control study using case-parent triads and control-mother dyads

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) has a multifactorial etiology with evidence of a genetic contribution to its pathogenesis. A number of candidate gene case-control studies have been performed on spontaneous PTD, but the results have been inconsistent, and do not fully assess the role of how two genotypes can impact outcome. To elucidate this latter point we re-analyzed data from a previously published case-control candidate gene study, using a case-parent triad design and a hybrid design combining case-parent triads and control-mother dyads. These methods offer a robust approach to genetic association studies for PTD compared to traditional case-control designs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study participants were obtained from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). A total of 196 case triads and 211 control dyads were selected for the analysis. A case-parent triad design as well as a hybrid design was used to analyze 1,326 SNPs from 159 candidate genes. We compared our results to those from a previous case-control study on the same samples. Haplotypes were analyzed using a sliding window of three SNPs and a pathway analysis was performed to gain biological insight into the pathophysiology of preterm delivery.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The most consistent significant fetal gene across all analyses was COL5A2. The functionally similar COL5A1 was significant when combining fetal and maternal genotypes. PON1 was significant with analytical approaches for single locus association of fetal genes alone, but was possibly confounded by maternal effects. Focal adhesion (hsa04510), Cell Communication (hsa01430) and ECM receptor interaction (hsa04512) were the most constant significant pathways.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study suggests a fetal association of COL5A2 and a combined fetal-maternal association of COL5A1 with spontaneous PTD. In addition, the pathway analysis implied interactions of genes affecting cell communication and extracellular matrix.</p