Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Precision measurement of the top quark mass from dilepton events at CDF II

We report a measurement of the top quark mass, M_t, in the dilepton decay channel of $t\bar{t}\to b\ell'^{+}\nu_{\ell'}\bar{b}\ell^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\ell}$ using an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb^{-1} of p\bar{p} collisions collected with the CDF II detector. We apply a method that convolutes a leading-order matrix element with detector resolution functions to form event-by-event likelihoods; we have enhanced the leading-order description to describe the effects of initial-state radiation. The joint likelihood is the product of the likelihoods from 78 candidate events in this sample, which yields a measurement of M_{t} = 164.5 \pm 3.9(\textrm{stat.}) \pm 3.9(\textrm{syst.}) \mathrm{GeV}/c^2, the most precise measurement of M_t in the dilepton channel.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, version includes changes made prior to publication by journa

Measurement of the Ratios of Branching Fractions B(Bs -> Ds pi pi pi) / B(Bd -> Dd pi pi pi) and B(Bs -> Ds pi) / B(Bd -> Dd pi)

Using 355 pb^-1 of data collected by the CDF II detector in \ppbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron, we study the fully reconstructed hadronic decays B -> D pi and B -> D pi pi pi. We present the first measurement of the ratio of branching fractions B(Bs -> Ds pi pi pi) / B(Bd -> Dd pi pi pi) = 1.05 pm 0.10 (stat) pm 0.22 (syst). We also update our measurement of B(Bs -> Ds pi) / B(Bd -> Dd pi) to 1.13 pm 0.08 (stat) pm 0.23 (syst) improving the statistical uncertainty by more than a factor of two. We find B(Bs -> Ds pi) = [3.8 pm 0.3 (stat) pm 1.3 (syst)] \times 10^{-3} and B(Bs -> Ds pi pi pi) = [8.4 pm 0.8 (stat) pm 3.2 (syst)] \times 10^{-3}.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figure

Cross Section Measurements of High-pTp_T Dilepton Final-State Processes Using a Global Fitting Method

We present a new method for studying high-$p_T$ dilepton events ($e^{\pm}e^{\mp}$, $\mu^{\pm}\mu^{\mp}$, $e^{\pm}\mu^{\mp}$) and simultaneously extracting the production cross sections of $p\bar{p} \to t\bar{t}$, $p\bar{p} \to W^+W^-$, and p\bar{p} \to \ztt at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ TeV. We perform a likelihood fit to the dilepton data in a parameter space defined by the missing transverse energy and the number of jets in the event. Our results, which use $360 {\rm pb^{-1}}$ of data recorded with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider, are $\sigma(t\bar{t}) = 8.5_{-2.2}^{+2.7}$ pb, $\sigma(W^+W^-) = 16.3^{+5.2}_{-4.4}$ pb, and \sigma(\ztt) =291^{+50}_{-46} pb.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures, to be submitted to PRD-R

Measurement of the Lambda_b Lifetime in Lambda_b --> J/psi Lambda0 in p-pbar Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

We report a measurement of the Lambda_b lifetime in the exclusive decay Lambda_b --> J/psi Lambda0 in p-pbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV using an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb^{-1} of data collected by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. Using fully reconstructed decays, we measure tau(Lambda_b) = 1.593 ^{+0.083}_{-0.078} (stat.) +- 0.033 (syst.) ps. This is the single most precise measurement of tau(Lambda_b) and is 3.2 sigma higher than the current world average.Comment: 7 Pages, 2 Figures, 1 Table. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Observation of WZ Production

We report the first observation of the associated production of a W boson and a Z boson. This result is based on 1.1 fb-1 of integrated luminosity from ppbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We observe 16 WZ candidates passing our event selection with an expected background of 2.7 +/- 0.4 events. A fit to the missing transverse energy distribution indicates an excess of events compared to the background expectation corresponding to a significance equivalent to six standard deviations. The measured cross section is sigma(ppbar -> WZ) = 5.0^{+1.8}_{-1.6} pb, consistent with the standard model expectation.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Measurement of the Top-Quark Mass in All-Hadronic Decays in p pbar Collisions at CDF II

We present a measurement of the top-quark mass, $M_{\mathrm{top}}$, in the all-hadronic decay channel $t\bar{t} \to W^+b W^- \bar{b} \to q_1\bar{q}_2 b q_3 \bar{q}_4 \bar{b}$. The analysis is performed using 310 pb$^{-1}$ of $\sqrt{s}$=1.96 TeV $p\bar{p}$ collisions collected with the CDF II detector using a multi-jet trigger. The mass measurement is based on an event-by-event likelihood which depends on both the sample purity and the value of the top-quark mass, using 90 possible jet-to-parton assignments in the six-jet final state. The joint likelihood of 290 selected events yields a value of $M_{\mathrm{top}}$=177.1 $\pm$ 4.9 (stat.) $\pm$ 4.7 (syst.) GeV/$c^2$.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures and 1 table, Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Analysis of the Quantum Numbers JPCJ^{PC} of the X(3872) Particle

We present an analysis of angular distributions and correlations of the X(3872) particle in the exclusive decay mode X(3872)->J/psi pi+ pi- with J/psi->mu+ mu-. We use 780 pb -1 of data from ppbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We derive constraints on spin, parity, and charge conjugation parity of the X(3872) particle by comparing measured angular distributions of the decay products with predictions for different JPC hypotheses. The assignments JPC = 1++ and 2-+ are the only ones consistent with the data.Comment: update to journal versio

Limits on Anomalous Triple Gauge Couplings in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

We present a search for anomalous triple gauge couplings (ATGC) in WW and WZ boson production. The boson pairs are produced in ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV, and the data sample corresponds to 350 pb-1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. In this search one W decays to leptons, and the other boson (W or Z) decays hadronically. Combining with a previously published CDF measurement of Wgamma boson production yields ATGC limits of -0.18 < lambda < 0.17 and -0.46 < Delta kappa < 0.39 at the 95% confidence level, using a cut-off scale Lambda=1.5 TeV.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Observation of Bs-Bsbar Oscillations

We report the observation of Bs-Bsbar oscillations from a time-dependent measurement of the Bs-Bsbar oscillation frequency Delta ms. Using a data sample of 1 fb^-1 of p-pbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron, we find signals of 5600 fully reconstructed hadronic Bs decays, 3100 partially reconstructed hadronic Bs decays, and 61500 partially reconstructed semileptonic Bs decays. We measure the probability as a function of proper decay time that the Bs decays with the same, or opposite, flavor as the flavor at production, and we find a signal for Bs-Bsbar oscillations. The probability that random fluctuations could produce a comparable signal is 8 X 10^-8, which exceeds 5 sigma significance. We measure Delta ms = 17.77 +- 0.10 (stat) +- 0.07 (syst) ps^-1 and extract |Vtd/Vts| = 0.2060 +- 0.0007 (exp) + 0.0081 - 0.0060 (theor).Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Physical Review Letter